Saturday, February 16, 2008

Oscars! Final Predictions [Documentary, Animated & Shorts]

Documentary Feature

“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”

Should Win: My devotion to film should mean I see more documentaries. Shamefully, the only one of these I've seen is Sicko, but only because it's the only one of these five playing remotely near me. I'm a deprived Northerner. Haha.

Will Win: 'No End In Sight' has been winning most of the critics prizes, and if the ceremony had taken place a month ago I'd say the film was the frontrunner. Now I'm not so sure. 'Sicko' certainly has the commercial pull, and Moore has great history with AMPAS, but I'm not sure there is as much admiration for, or interest in this film, as there was for his previous documentaries. And we know by Born Into Brothels' 2004 victory over 'Super Size Me' that profile doesn't play much of a part in this particular category.

That the majority of the nominees be about war, and criticisms of Western culture, could play into the hands of 'War/Dance', the lightest of the five. But the film hasn't had as much notice as at least three of the other nominees, and similarly 'Operation Homecoming' doesn't have enough gumption in the race to manage a victory here. The other option is Alex Gibney's 'Taxi To The Dark Side', which has a couple of critics prizes and a WGA win to its name. It's difficult to know whether people will prefer the personalisation of war atrocities in the film to 'No End In Sight''s acclaimed overview, but I think this makes it more likely to have the emotional kick that voters will register with, and so I'm predicting Taxi To The Dark Side to take this prize.

Animated Feature

"Surf's Up"

Should Win: I haven't seen Persepolis yet. Not out here until March! Even though I think Ratatouille is very overrated (best animated film ever?!) it's much, much better than the thoughtful but flimsy 'Surf's Up', which I've just finished watching. The things I do for the Oscars...

Will Win: The rat movie. 'Persepolis' has done well but is hardly competition for a critical darling which EVERYONE in the known universe saw.

Documentary Short

“La Corona (The Crown)”
“Salim Baba”
“Sari’s Mother”

Should Win: Beats me. La Corona looks like it kicks ass.

Will Win: 'Sari's Mother' has the AIDS card. 'Freeheld' has the dying lesbian policewoman card. Freeheld has won more, so I'm picking it.

Live Action Short

“At Night”
“Il Supplente (The Substitute)”
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)”
“Tanghi Argentini”
“The Tonto Woman”

Should Win: Whoever thought of the name The Mozart of Pickpockets needs serious recognition.

Will Win: 'At Night' is about cancer, so maybe. I'm inclined to choose Tanghi Argentini actually. It seems very popular, and already has a lot of awards.

Animated Short

“I Met the Walrus”
“Madame Tutli-Putli”
“Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)”
“My Love (Moya Lyubov)”
“Peter & the Wolf”

Should Win: ModFab has an excellent analysis of this category, where you can view all of the nominees! I thought 'Even Pigeons Go To Heaven' was lovely and funny, but the animation in Madame Tutli-Putli is stunning, and I found the entire thing beautiful. My fave.

Will Win: As artistic and significant as 'My Love' feels, I think they could go for the endearing gem, Even Pigeons Go To Heaven. Just a hunch.

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