Sunday, February 24, 2008

Oscars! Final Predictions [The Actresses]

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Should Win: Aside from the inclusion of Cate Blanchett, the Academy have assembled an excellent collection of actresses this year, and had expected-nominee Angelina Jolie been in her place, I'd argue it would have been one of the best ever. I don't have a problem with any of the other four taking home the golden guy, but if pushed my favourite has to be Julie Christie, for bringing so much grace and being so natural in a role that's surely difficult to get right.

Will Win:
Had Edith Piaf been American, and Marion Cotillard had played her in an American-produced film, in the English language, then she'd definitely win here. As it stands her performance is foreign, and Sophia Loren is the only actress in Oscar history to break this barrier, even though Cotillard herself has other things going for her; like the 20-something beauty transformed into an old diva. Instead I fancy she'll be pushed back into third place, for Julie Christie and Ellen Page, whose films lend empathy to their characters much more than Cotillard's will allow (not that I dislike La Vie En Rose -- on the contrary actually). Juno is strong, but there must be a group of the Academy that look down on it, and thus I really don't think Ellen Page's performance (as wonderful as it is) can triumph over a traditional win for the gorgeous, deserving Julie Christie.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Should Win: Tilda Swinton, who elevates her character so much from its written form, absorbing the themes of her film and manifesting them in her performance so superbly. Love the Blanchett, too.

Will Win:
I've been going over this but I've finally settled on Amy Ryan. Everybody else, bar Ronan, seems to have won something, and people love her performance. Plus the role is total bait, even in a category comprising of a woman playing a man and an 83 year-old legend who tearfully attacks her drug-dealing son.

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