In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 37

Episode 37 has reviews of "A Good Day to Die Hard," "Beautiful Creatures," Judd Apatow's "This Is 40," and Foreign Language Oscar nominee "No." We're also predicting the winners of Sunday's Academy Awards.

Head on over to the new site and listen!

In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 28

EPISODE 28: Masculine/Feminine

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It's Episode 28 of In the Mood for Podcast, a British-based film podcast hosted by Calum Reed of Ultimate Addict and Pete Sheppard of In the Mood for Blog. Awards dominate this week with discussion of the National Board of Review, LA film critics, and Boston film critics prizes, and predicting the Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild nominations. We talk about documentaries "The House I Live In" and "Knuckleball," before finally getting around to arthouse favourite "Tabu." And in straddling major extremes of masculinity, Martin McDonagh's male-dominated "Seven Pscyhopaths" faces off against our second Miley Cyrus film of the year, "So Undercover." The Miley vehicle brings giggles and shame to an otherwise level-headed episode, but we brought it on ourselves...

Discussed on the podcast: 

Opening Segment: Discussing the winners from the National Board of Review, LA film critics' association, and Boston Society of Film Critics'. [2:35 - 14:40]

*Preconception Corner*

Reviews of: 

• "Seven Psychopaths"
• "Tabu"
• "The House I Live In"
• "Knuckleball"
• "So Undercover"

[18:20 - 55:35]

Closing Segment: Predicting the Golden Globe nominations, and the Screen Actors' Guild nominations [55:40 - 1:12:10]

*Shag, Marry or Kill?*
*The Watson Factor*
*The Poupaud Range*

Intro Music: New theme music!
Outro Music: Sky Ferreira, "Everything Is Embarrassing"

The National Board of Review Ensures "Zero Dark Thirty" Stays In The Hunt

It's my annual attempt at predicting something relatively unpredictable, the prizes bestowed by the National Board of Review. The 'freemasons' of the awards circuit, I'm not sure anyone quite knows who sits on this board or how it has gotten to be such a fixture in the season, nevertheless, it's always fun to look at what they choose each year.

[Updated with winners -- prediction score 13/24]

Picture: “Zero Dark Thirty"

Top 10: 
“Argo”
"Beasts of the Southern Wild”
"Django Unchained"
“Les Miserables”
“Lincoln”
”Looper"
”The Perks of Being a Wallflower"
"Promised Land"
“Silver Linings Playbook”
”Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction score: 6/11

Prediction summary: You would think the assumed six safe bets for Best Picture nominations are among the 11 (10 + winner) championed by the board, those being “Argo,” “Lincoln,” “Life of Pi,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” After that, it could be a free-for-all; “Flight” and “Trouble with the Curve” fit that middle-of-the-road movie that this group often includes – the latter being basically a Clint Eastwood movie, despite him not officially directing it. “The Master” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” seem to be on the decline right now, but I’m going to suggest that they come through based on their passionate pockets of fans. 

“Moonrise Kingdom” too, in that regard, although it’s resurrecting awards steam and should be a strong contender for a screenplay nomination with Oscar. You could replace “Skyfall” with “The Dark Knight Rises” or “The Avengers” or even “Magic Mike” in my predictions: it’s that smash hit entrant I figure makes it in like “Star Trek” and the final Harry Potter film did. 

Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Leading Actor: Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leading Actress: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Supporting Actor: Leonardo Di Caprio, "Django Unchained"
Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, "Compliance"

Prediction score: 1/5

Prediction summary: Bigelow seems like the perfect choice for Director critics prizes (more so than the film as Best Picture because of the severity of “Zero Dark Thirty”) although this could easily go to Ang Lee, Tom Hooper, or Steven Spielberg instead. I’m expecting Daniel Day-Lewis to sweep, and Hathaway and Jones to start ascending to frontrunner status. As for leading actress, this could go anywhere, so I’m picking Keira Knightley as a semi-outsider pick, based on the classic nature of the role and that they’ve tended to go for younger actresses of late. 

Original Screenplay: “Moonrise Kingdom”
Adapted Screenplay: “Lincoln”
Ensemble: “Les Miserables”
Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, “The Impossible”
Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Animated Feature: “Frankenweenie”
Documentary Feature: “Searching For Sugar Man”
Foreign Film: “Amour"

Prediction score: 6/8

National Board of Review 2010, Predictions

Every year I do this, and every year I do terribly. Apart from the odd Clint Eastwood mention, this is pretty much random guesswork.

My NBR Predictions:-

Best Picture

Prediction: "The King's Speech"

Alternate: "The Way Back"

Predicted Top Ten:

"127 Hours"

"Get Low"

"Hereafter"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"Secretariat"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"The Way Back"

"Winter's Bone"

I don't think "Inception" will be as strong as some people seem to think, since it is rather difficult to keep track of. They're usually very conservative, which isn't exactly in line with "The Kids Are All Right", but the film has enough reinforcement of family values to ingratiate itself with voters. Part of the reasoning behind this list is prioritising films about old people and/or which contain sentiment. "Black Swan" seems a bit too out-there for this body's tastes.

 

Director

Prediction: Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"

Alternate: Clint Eastwood, "Hereafter"

I almost put Eastwood, but Boyle will have the more popular, rousing film.

 

Actress in a Leading Role

Prediction: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Alternate: Anne Hathaway, "Love and Other Drugs"

They have generally swayed towards the young and pretty in recent years; Portman has the buzz, but Hathaway the bait.

 

Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Alternate: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

And generally stately men in this category. I suspect this might be one of the few precursors Duvall picks up.

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"

Alternate: Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"

Their Supp Actress choices usually either wow me or dumbfound me. That Gong Li pick a few years ago was crazy-inspired.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Alternate: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

They like Rush, and I'm convinced that Hawkes will pick up precursor notices.

 

Best Ensemble Performance

Prediction: "The Kids Are All Right"

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: "The King's Speech"

Alternate: "Somewhere"

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: "127 Hours"

Alternate: "The Social Network"

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: "Toy Story 3"

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"

Alternate: "Of Gods and Men"

Final Oscar Nomination Predix

Best Picture

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Alternates: District 9, Crazy Heart, Where the Wild Things Are

I think that District 9 is far from a lock, since it came out a while ago and is essentially an action blockbuster. It's a film with passionate followers but how many? Competition is sturdy. From there, A Serious Man doesn't look that strong but there's no denying the film's Jewishness will appeal to certain quarters of the Academy, and the Coen's are fast becoming Oscar staples. 500 Days has been hitting top tens all year but can it make the one that matters? I don't see why not given that its had a long time to gain fans and a status as an offbeat hit.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon



Lee Daniels still seems like an awfully outlandish pick for the Academy to make. Eastwood's inclusion would show a lack of imagination but at this point seems the more likely bet, but can Michael Haneke steal in with a film bound for two nominations anyway and with one of the few real "prestige" films left in the contest?

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Alternate: Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria

I couldn't bring myself to predict Emily Blunt, though everything suggests to me that Helen Mirren is on shaky ground.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Matt Damon - The Informant!

This seems nailed on.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger

Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Nine

Samantha Morton missed Globe and SAG but there's shades of In America. The girl is clearly a favourite with the Academy, and her role is exactly the kind that gets nominated in this category. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga will coast in without any kind of category confusion, leaving Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger, Julianne Moore, Marion Cotillard, and Melanie Laurent to fight it out for the fifth spot.

With the packed nature of the race it would seem wise to ditch the people with any category confusion and go for Cruz or Moore, whose precursor presence has been fairly consistent. But still, I can't help thinking that Diane Kruger's SAG nomination was because they couldn't vote for Laurent, and that the younger Actress will receive enough #1 ballots to place her above the competition.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Matt Damon - Invictus

It seems wrong to tamper with Globe and SAG but Christian McKay's gimmicky turn is something Oscar have historically gone for. Time then to sub out the youngest guy, though I still don't think that Plummer is a done deal either.

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Alternate: The Hangover

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Alternate: Crazy Heart

National Board of Review: Predictions

It's very scary that a year has lapsed since the last time the National Board of Review announced their ten favourite films of 2008. Last year was uninspired (in truth I've yet to be inspired by an NBR choice) with a typical bout of love for Clint Eastwood and Edward Zwick, as well as a ball-rolling canonisation of Slumdog Millionaire. My prediction score last year was six out of eleven (top ten plus winner) and none of the acting winners. Hoping for an improvement...

Best Picture: Bright Star

The NBR rewarded almost every British period drama with its big prize in the eighties and nineties -- A Passage To India, A Room With a View, Howard's End, Sense and Sensibility -- and followed that up with wins for British period drama's like Quills, The Hours, and Finding Neverland. Recent years have seen them embrace more divisive films but I think it's time they returned to unspoken love and wistful landscape. Bright Star needs this endorsement and I reckon Jane Campion's film will get it.

Best Director: Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Wild guess. Apparently a film with mass appeal and something inoffensively charming. Jason Reitman is building up a fanbase. Expecting major losses to Precious and The Hurt Locker in the critics awards so a mention here would be valuable.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated/Julie & Julia

I don't love Meryl's Julia turn but it has many fans. Word is she's dynamite in the Meyers film too. Looks ominous.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney - Up in the Air

If he can win for Michael Clayton he can definitely win for this.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Marion Cotillard - Nine/Public Enemies

Two juicy roles and they really like to reward stars for multiple turns. If this happens and they continue to campaign Marion as lead the two Actress races are going to be really interesting.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles

Why not?

Top Ten Films:

The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Julie and Julia
The Last Station
Nine
Precious
Public Enemies
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Pre-Precursor Oscar Predictions

As things start hotting up on the festival/awards circuit (just 47 days until the National Board of Review announce their 2009 picks) I've decided to make some Oscar predictions. Here they are:-

Green = very likely, Amber = probably, Red = Maybe

BEST PICTURE

An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I wasn't wowed by the Avatar trailer but Cameron has such an amazing pedigree that I don't think it can possibly be a bad film. Maybe the lowered expectation will help it become a hit. Up in the Air and Precious seem the strongest at the moment after their smashing reception at Toronto, and An Education is exactly the kind of film Oscar likes. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up are all early releases that made an impact. The Lovely Bones and Nine, while I'm not convinced they'll be that great, are the kind of films that get nominated for being released in December.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels – Precious
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Rob Marshall – Nine
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Up in the Air seems very strong so I'd expect Reitman to get a second nomination. From there, they love Clint, and the last time Rob Marshall did a musical he nearly got the Oscar. Bigelow has raves and her film is showy visually, and I'm thinking Precious is strong enough to get Daniels into this five, even though it likely won't be remembered for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank – Amelia

Carey Mulligan already looks on track to join the list of nobody-to-somebody starlets that Oscar have occasionally gone for. Streep is a given, and Sidibe looks strong. From there it could be a few, so I went for the baitiest: Michelle Monaghan's indie misery and Swank's juicy biopic. I don't think Michelle Pfeiffer should be nominated, but she's bound to get that Globe comedy nomination, and in 2000 that worked for Juliette Binoche against some much harder-hitting alternatives.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jnr. – Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun

Clooney has another big film and Colin Firth has the reviews of a lifetime. Holbrook and Freeman are veterans with baity roles. Maybe then we need some fun? Robert Downey Jnr. managed a nomination last year for a bit-of-fluff film, so why not as Sherlock Holmes, a very established literary character with notable eccentricities?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench – Nine
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

A bit of a lottery this one beyond Mo'Nique and Moore's buzzed performances. They love Judi Dench beyond measure and she looks like fun in Nine, and Cotillard in the same film may benefit from her turn in Public Enemies earlier in the year, as well as her status as an Oscar-winner. That's assuming she doesn't go lead.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus
Alfred Molina – An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn't get nominated there's something very wrong. Molina and Tucci still have big buzz. Damon in Invictus is a bit of a lottery but he's looking less and less likely to get in for his terrific Informant performance so this may have to do. I expect Kodi Smit-McPhee will get all the Young Actor critic awards and might grab a nomination from SAG, who like to reward the kids.

2008 Oscar Preview & Predictions: The Big Six

Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

What Should Have Been Nominated? Where to start? I'll be talking a bit about the Academy's choice of these five pictures when I start my review of 2008 next week. But for now, let's just say that I can think of at least ten films better than Milk, my favourite in the category. Chief among them is Wall-E, which I'm sure wasn't far away, and The Dark Knight's omission from this lineup is hard to bear.

What Deserves To Win? I've cooled on all of these films but Milk is very well-made and the only one that struck a resonant chord with me. It's standard in many ways but always interesting and certainly knows itself more than these other pictures.

What Will Win? You can read theories about Benjamin Button being the "true Oscar picture", or Harvey Weinstein going all-out for his holocaust baby, but this is Slumdog's year. The media undoubtedly had a lot to do with the film's buzz and making it seem like serious fare, but since most of Hollywood seem to love it the awards press can't shoulder all of the blame. Slumdog Millionaire will win because it's genuinely cherished -- at least for now.

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Who Should Have Been Nominated? Anyone a bit more interesting. Andrew Stanton, Christopher Nolan (and I'm not even the biggest fan of his direction), and Darren Aronofsky are the major players who were left in the lurch.

Who Deserves To Win? Gus Van Sant, for the reason that the others either had relatively little to do (Daldry & Howard), or were overbearing in visual elaboration of painfully simple stories (Boyle & Fincher).

Who Will Win? Danny Boyle.

Actor in a Leading Role

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves to Win? This is one of the best categories actually, although the only ones I'll admit to loving are Penn and Rourke. They're the frontrunners so at least there's some justice in the world. I can't decide between them just yet.

Who Will Win? I've been going back and forth on this so it's time to make a decision. Penn's advantages are that he has the lion's share of critics awards (which obviously doesn't matter much, just ask Sally Hawkins), the biopic character, the straight man playing gay card, the fact that he dies, the Best Picture nominee, and the SAG. Rourke's plus points: he has the media, the comeback story, the fact he has considerably less Actors to help him in the film, the Globe and BAFTA wins, and that Sean has already won an Oscar whereas it would be a great "story" if he were to crown a troubled career with a golden guy.

I always find that predicting from the heart is a bad idea. I want Mickey Rourke to win this, because he's bound to make a great speech and Sean Penn really doesn't need another Oscar. But something tells me that the biopic will win out again, as no other likely acting winners on the night will have played real-life people, and so I'm predicting that Sean Penn will win this particular tussle.

Actress in a Leading Role

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? By a country mile it's Anne Hathaway, who has so much more to do than the other four women, and generally succeeds.

Who Will Win? I'm having jitters about Winslet's chances, what with the Meryl SAG win and the fact that nobody really loves Kate's performance. But the other four women have had similarly troubled paths, and you've surely got to think that with just the one nomination (for a performance undefeated at Globe, BAFTA, and SAG) Kate Winslet has enough supporters to win this one with ease.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jnr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? I might be being picky but I reckon both Hoffman and Ledger are leading in their respective films. But I'm willing to admit that these aren't Jamie Foxx in Collateral-style examples of category fraud and so I'll whole-heartedly commit to saying that Ledger's performance is fantastic, and way worthier than anyone else included here.

Who Will Win? There really haven't been many posthumous nominations/wins, you know? His win seems a given, which in turn is generating talk that Academy members might tick another name instead, believing that their vote won't matter. This seems a very wayward theory to me, and if Heath's name isn't called out and received to a lengthy standing applause, I'll be shocked.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? Again, I consider Amy Adams to be a lead in Doubt; if only for her part in the Frosty the Snowman office meeting. Hers is my favourite performance of these five because she's the principle force, introspectively coaxing us from one side of the fence to the other, and she's devastatingly effective as a naive, torn, inexperienced young woman frightened of allegiance and equally wary of confrontation. Beyond that, I like Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei very much.

Who Will Win? I think this is still a five-way race. Taraji P. Henson represents Benjamin Button's only realistic chance at a major award (rather like Swinton in Michael Clayton), Davis has the baitiest role in an incredibly baity film, Marisa Tomei won lots of critics stuff and her film has just the two nominations, of which its fans could easily tick both boxes on their ballots. Penelope Cruz has the only legitimate precursor in BAFTA (Winslet's Reader performance won both Globe and SAG in this category) and has been up there in the betting for a while, and Amy Adams has by far the biggest role (co-lead, if you ask me) in her film and is the kind of American starlet (like Tomei back in '92) that wins for a Supporting award.

I'm actually going to go for Marisa Tomei, because it's been sixteen years since she won, and she may mop up votes from the people who *just* preferred Penn's performance to Rourke's.

BRIT Awards: Predictions

I'm gonna soldier on with the Oscar previews later on, but first a look at the 2008 BRIT nominations and some predictions. Generally I don't think this even represents a close reading of what the best of the year was musically, but it's usually a good watch nevertheless.

British Album

Coldplay - Viva La Vida or Death and All of his Friends
Duffy - Rockferry
Elbow - The Seldom Seen Kid
Radiohead - In Rainbows
The Ting Tings - We Started Nothing

Should Win: Duffy or The Ting Tings
Will Win: Coldplay

British Group

Coldplay
Elbow
Girls Aloud
Radiohead
Take That

Should Win: Girls Aloud (duh!)
Will Win: Coldplay

British Single

Adele - Chasing Pavements
Alexandra Burke - Hallelujah
Coldplay - Viva La Vida
Dizzee Rascal - Dance With Me
Duffy - Mercy
Estelle feat. Kanye West - American Boy
Girls Aloud - The Promise
Leona Lewis - Better In Time
Scouting For Girls - Heartbeat
X Factor Finalists - Hero

Should Win: American Boy
Will Win: Alexandra Burke

British Male Artist

Ian Brown
James Morrison
Paul Weller
The Streets
Will Young

Should Win: Will Young (or Paul Weller)
Will Win: Paul Weller

British Female Artist

Adele
Beth Rowley
Duffy
Estelle
M.I.A

Should Win: M.I.A!!!!!!!!
Will Win: Duffy

British Breakthrough Act

Adele
Duffy
The Last Shadow Puppets
Scouting For Girls
The Ting Tings

Should Win: Adele
Will Win: Scouting For Girls

British Live Act

Coldplay
Elbow
Iron Maiden
Scouting For Girls
The Verve

Should Win: Don't care :-P
Will Win: Coldplay

International Album

AC/DC - Black Ice
Fleet Foxes - Fleet Foxes
The Killers - Day and Age
Kings of Leon - Only By the Night
MGMT - Oracular Spectacular

Should Win: MGMT
Will Win: Kings of Leon

International Group

AC/DC
Fleet Foxes
The Killers
Kings of Leon
MGMT

Should Win: MGMT
Will Win: Kings of Leon

International Male Artist

Beck
Neil Diamond
Jay-Z
Kanye West
Seasick Steve

Should Win: Kanye West (808's and Heartbreak is Lush), but I love Beck
Will Win: Seasick Steve (why not? he's popular)

International Female Artist

Beyonce
Gabriella Cilmi
Katy Perry
Pink
Santogold

Should Win: Santogold
Will Win: Katy Perry

2008 Oscar Preview & Predictions: Visuals

Art Direction

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

What Should Have Been Nominated? There's a major argument for Wall-E, which has the most imaginative and defined production design of 2008. The Fall was never going to get nominated but it has such interesting, diverse arrangement, from the colourful expanse of fantasy to the murky grime of post-war healthcare.

What Deserves To Win? There are few things in this life more overwrought than Changeling but you can muster up an ounce of forgiveness for the richness of its production. The Dark Knight is great too.

What Will Win? I'd be surprised if The Curious Case of Benjamin Button didn't win. It's the only BP nominee of the five and whichever way you look at it the thirteen-nomination haul won't prove fruitful next week.


Cinematography

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

What Should Have Been Nominated? Above all, the CFCA-nominated work in The Fall. I much prefer Roger Deakins' cinematography in Revolutionary Road to his nomination for The Reader, as he succesfully navigates the restricted visual artificiality of suburbia. I don't know how The Wrestler's Darren Aronofsky and Maryse Alberti couldn't manage a nomination between them, and it's the photography I find increasingly impressive about the gritty Mickey Rourke flick.

What Deserves To Win? The Dark Knight, which is definitely OTT, but certainly a whole lot more consistent with the tone and nature of the film than Slumdog's is. The rest don't excite me.

What Will Win? Slumdog Millionaire. It's very blatant in striking a visual chord and thus is memorable. It's also the BP frontrunner.



Costume Design

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

What Should Have Been Nominated? This is a fine set of nominees but if I'd have had my way Eiko Ishioka's designs for The Fall (yes, again) would have been justly rewarded. Although ineligible, April Ferry's cutesy rural wartime outfits hit the spot in The Edge of Love, and don't actively seek attention in the way that some of this year's nominated costumers undoubtedly do. The Secret Life of Bees has such a bright, fantasy-style tone to it that's mimicked wonderfully by the attire of Queen Latifah et al.

What Deserves To Win? Australia and The Duchess have clothes that adhere to their respective periods and in both cases illustrate the flamboyance of their production, so it's difficult to pick a winner. Probably Australia because it seems to confound expectation and celebrate originality a little more.

What Will Win? The Duchess, since it's so definitely a costume drama. Even Milena Canonero won this in 2006 for Marie Antoinette, despite the film being unpopular and regarded as a failure by many. What do they know? :-P


Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

What Should Have Been Nominated? Burn After Reading's mechanical seamlessness contributes to the continual satire, and Quantum of Solace is one of the more well-put-together Bond films in recent memory, cool and engaging without ever going full-blown crazy/frantic.

What Deserves To Win? Elliot Graham's work on Milk is excellent, spanning years with ease and blending archival footage gracefully, without making these forays into the past seem sentimental or unnecessary.

What Will Win? The Slumdawg. Overdone, but they love lively.



Make Up

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

What Should Have Been Nominated? Doomsday. Gore, disease, physical deformation, mutation, tribal beonging. Madness. I also love the makeup in Let the Right One In, which meshes well with the setting and like the film feels very natural amidst its own physical and thematic extremes.

What Deserves To Win? The Dark Knight. Joker and Two-Face. Creeeepy.

What Will Win? The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which wouldn't be my choice but isn't a bad one. Major gimmicky age make-up for everyone involved.


Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

What Should Have Been Nominated? The wondrous effects-laden Eagle Eye, which regrettably offers up big budget theatrics with very little consideration for much else, and somehow manages to cast Shia LaBoeuf as someone called Jerry (surely he hasn't reached that stage yet?). But whatever, great FX.

What Deserves To Win? All of these films have so much money pumped into them that the effects were inevitably going to be impressive, but I think that the guys from The Dark Knight have the toughest job in making impact when everything around it is so equally dark and dangerous.

What Will Win? It's a semi-tough call because I'm not sure that The Dark Knight will win any other Tech awards, and so is in with a chance. But I can't help thinking that the win for The Golden Compass over Transformers last year means that cutesy and colourful wins the day, and so I'm willing to bet that Benjamin Button grabs this prize.

2008 Oscar Preview & Predictions: Animated, Documentary, Foreign, Shorts

Animated Feature Film

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

What Should Have Been Nominated? I'd make a case for the major casualty in this category, Waltz With Bashir, which has a lot more merit than the panda movie. Horton Hears a Who is probably better than them both, and even made me cry. Sshh! :-)

What Deserves To Win? I found Kung Fu Panda very overrated, and culturally pretty dim in truth. I'm seeing Bolt next week, but in any case I highly doubt that it's better than the majestic Wall-E, which I gave an A-. If it is, I'll update you. The space adventure is my favourite animated film since Finding Nemo and is certainly in an All-Time Top Ten of those sorts. But if only enough of the Academy could have widened their horizons as much as Andrew Stanton's film this could have shown up in the Best Picture 'elite'.

What Will Win? Wall-E, which has the most nominations of any Animated Film (tied with Beauty and the Beast), and the only one to ever win a major critics prize.

Animated Short Film

La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

What Should Have Been Nominated? Beats me.

What Deserves To Win? The only one of those I've seen is Presto, because they played it before Wall-E. I liked but didn't love.

What Will Win? I'd say that Presto has the edge because it's Pixar, but La Maison has its share of fans.

Documentary Feature Film

The Betrayal
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

What Should Have Been Nominated? I do regret not seeing as many documentaries as I should. It's something I'm trying to remedy but it's rather difficult when there are minimal theatrically-released features (Trouble the Water has seemingly been and gone -- you can be forgiven for missing it) and the impetus to watch these documentaries on DVD in April/May evapourates fairly quickly. As it turns out the only ones I caught this year were the runaway frontrunner Man On Wire, and the ambiguous docu-nature of Waltz With Bashir. Both of these are great. Up the Yangtze, which I count as 2007 because of its release in other countries, was eligible for a place this year, and is bloody brilliant, so shame on the Academy (not for the first time!).

What Deserves to Win? Obviously I can't judge that, but I will say that Man On Wire is an excellent film.

What Will Win? Man On Wire. It's been seen by at least twice as many people as any of the other nominees, and has won nearly every critic award.


Documentary Short Subject

The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

What Should Have Been Nominated? N/A

What Deserves to Win? N/A

What Will Win? I'm guessing The Conscience of Nhem En because it's about liberty etc. etc.

Live Action Short Film

Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)


What Should Have Been Nominated? N/A

What Deserves to Win? N/A

What Will Win? Toyland. It's about the holocaust.

Foreign Language Film

The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

What Should Have Been Nominated Submitted? Nothing really stands out. Some will make a case that France should have opted for I've Loved You So Long over The Class. I've not seen the latter, but the the Scott-Thomas flick has a lot wrong with it. Germany could have submitted The Wave but I'm glad they didn't because it runs out of ideas very quickly, and I liked Baader-Meinhof.

What Deserves To Win? I can't judge because I've seen only two of five nominees, but Waltz With Bashir is different and engaging.

What Will Win? There's an apparent history of upsets in this category, but I'm not so sure that The Lives of Others (a film universally adored) triumphing over Pan's Labyrinth (something that won three oscars elsewhere) was that much of a shock. Neither was Tsotsi's win over Paradise Now. I don't think Waltz With Bashir is nailed on, but its snub in the Animated Feature category might encourage people to make sure it is truly rewarded with an "Oscar Win" label. But I wouldn't count out The Class.

BAFTA Predictions

Film : Slumdog Millionaire
British Film: In Bruges
The Carl Foreman Award: Steve McQueen - Hunger (Director/Writer)
Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Original Screenplay: In Bruges
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Film Not in the English Language: Waltz With Bashir
Animated Film: Wall-E
Leading Actor: Sean Penn - Milk (Patel could win...)
Leading Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler (total lottery in this category)
Music: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Production Design: Changeling
Costume Design: The Duchess
Sound: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Make Up & Hair: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Short Animation: Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf or Death
Short Film: Voyage D'Affaires
Rising Star Award: Rebecca Hall

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 3: The Big Six

Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: Milk

Three of the biggest precursor bodies for this category, the PGA, DGA and ACE, all went for Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog, and Milk. So naturally I'm going against that.

Call me crazy but I think Wall-E may have managed to surpass the Animated Feature tag this year. The Incredibles came pretty close in 2004, but it didn't have the support that Wall-E has, or the critics awards that mark it as a viable candidate.

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Alternate: Andrew Stanton - Wall-E

The favourite five. I may be brave enough to pick the lil' robot but I daren't go for Stanton. Even though he totally deserves it.

Actress in a Leading Role

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Even after the Globe win I'm terrified that Sally Hawkins is going to lose out here. Missing SAG and BFCA is really bad, but this category has been pretty competitive and still doesn't have a frontrunner. Well, maybe Winslet, but if she wins in Supporting for The Reader then who knows, right? Still, a Winslet/Reader inclusion here is very possible and would certainly kill off the competition. Melissa Leo will get a lot of votes but enough? We'll see.

Actor in a Leading Role

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Alternate: Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Brad Pitt feels even more of a "movie star" now than he did a decade ago, and so even with Globe and SAG it isn't a done deal. It might not matter but I think an Eastwood inclusion here is likely and if it's tight I'd always go with the veteran performers in this category. Think of the Emile Hirsch/Ryan Gosling snubs last year. I know Brad is in his forties now but the other five are damn OLD.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Alternate: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

There seems to be a general indifference towards Amy Adams' performance in Doubt, but she got the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, and this is the acting category most likely to feature two performers from the same film. I'd say that she's the most shakiest though, since Marisa Tomei's late critics surge (coupled with good feeling for the film) makes her seem pretty much in.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jnr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky

This looks dead-on to me. Unless Dev Patel splits his votes between lead and supporting and ends up with nothing. But for that to happen would take somebody else to emerge from a sparse, precursor-deprived pack of men, headed (I suspect) by the volatile Eddy Marsan.

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 1: Techs & Music

Alright, here we go. I haven't really been keeping up with the techs during awards season so I've had to do same major research. Still, you can do research until you're blue in the face. You never really know.

Here are my picks:-

Art Direction

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Reader

It seems wrong to include something that was shut out of the Art Directors' guild nominations, however much I want to believe that the gorgeous work in Australia will grab one of these spots. Slumdog was at its ultimate peak when ballots went out and so I expect it to pick up tech nominations like this one. The Reader seems like a rather traditional and obvious pick for this category but it didn't get ADG either so I'm not gonna include it.

Costume Design

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Australia

Similarly, these all featured in the Costume Designers Guild nominations. Changeling's make up is one of the few things I admired about it. The Duchess draws a lot of attention to its costumes, as one would expect of a British costume drama. All five of these are either rich, clean, or colourful. Australia is all three, but it didn't get the CDG, so hmph.

Make Up

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Tropic Thunder

Alternate: Synechdoche, New York

Of the seven contenders for this award you'd have to say Benjamin Button is the obvious pick for the nomination and win, given the major age gimmick. The Reader also has this, but isn't particularly special, and there isn't a great deal of old Kate in the film. Hellboy is a definite option but I fancy that it might be ousted in the fantasy stakes by Heath's joker-face in The Dark Knight. And I've gone for Tropic Thunder in the final spot, because of the nominations for Click and Norbit in recent years. I'm not necessarily saying that the makeup department has a habit of nominating bad films, I'm referring to the fat-suit pattern, which could mean Tom Cruise's cameo is popular with them. I haven't seen much evidence of Synechdoche, but I fancy that of all the shortlisted films this one will be the least watched, though I do have it as an alternate.

Cinematography

Australia
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sometimes the cinematographers get wacky and fun. Last year was a boring, uniform example of people agreeing all awards season, but apart from The Dark Knight and the revered Slumdog nothing seems particularly assured this year. I'd expect Roger Deakins to make it for at least one of his two efforts for The Reader (shared with Chris Menges) and Revolutionary Road, and I fancy the latter is a bit more flash. I've gone for Australia, because it is so in-your-face (rather like Phantom of the Opera and The Illusionist were) that it's sure to have fans -- even if support for the film itself is distinctly lacking. Defiance is here because Edward Zwick films tend to pick up something somewhere, and although this film doesn't have the possibility of an Acting nomination as Blood Diamond and The Last Samurai did, it's a recent release that made NBR.

Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Editing historically matches Picture, which would seem to be backed up this year by the fact that the ACE noms match the PGA/DGA/Favourite Five for the main award. But as I'm not going for that five, I'm sticking Defiance in there (co-incidentally in an act of defiance) for similar reasons to the Cinematography prediction.

Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Since The Dark Knight appears to have transcended the label of summer blockbuster, Iron Man fills that void pretty well, especially since it got similarly impressive reviews. It also has better effects, if you ask me. But anyway yeah... there's a 15-film shortlist but these three look good.

Sound Mixing

The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

A mixture of war/action and uplifting sentiment.

Sound Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

The loudest, plus Wall-E. Animated films do well here.

Original Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: Milk

John Williams is god to them. The rest are great.

Original Song

Bolt - "I Thought I Lost You"
Slumdog Millionaire - "Jaiho"
Slumdog Millionaire - "O Saya
"Wall-E - "Down to Earth
"The Wrestler - "The Wrestler"

Alternate: Gran Torino - "Gran Torino"

The usual suspects plus another bone for the dog.