Final Oscar Predictions 3/3 [The Big Six]

Best Picture:

“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction: “Argo”
My preference: “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

When a film wins support from the producers’, directors’, actors’, and writers’ guilds you can pretty much call it over. Affleck’s director snub has definitely helped the film, but probably only to solidify its appeal as a mainstream crowd-pleaser, unlikely to be looked upon fondly in years to come, but nevertheless easy to anoint as a winner of the 2012 crop.

Best Director:

Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Prediction: Michael Haneke, “Amour”
My preference: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

It’s probably foolhardy to choose Haneke over Spielberg, Lee, or Russell, who seem to have stronger films. The lack of a particular frontrunner helps the Austrian, who you can imagine people who don’t even love “Amour” might still vote for, as a ‘cool’ alternative pick, and as he’s the most auteurial of the five men. That’s how I see it, anyway.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
My preference: Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Wishful thinking makes me want to predict Riva, who I suspect is close but will likely lose out to the familiar ‘star is born’ narrative surrounding Jennifer Lawrence. If Lawrence does win it’ll be a shame, since she can and will do so much better in the future, with a character she has a stronger handle on than Tiffany in “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
My preference, Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
My preference: Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Prediction: Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
My preference: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

I feel as if “Lincoln” has very little momentum, and Christoph Waltz has the best role of the five men here. A leading one, but since when have the Academy cared about category fraud? There is an outside chance that they’ll give Robert De Niro the Oscar, as a reward for finally doing something worthwhile, but the amount of lame comedic films he’s been in recently leads me to believe that when he does win a third Oscar it’ll be for a dramatic performance.

In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 33

EPISODE 33: Surrogates + Slaves

[1:13:04]

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It's Episode 33 of In the Mood for Podcast, a British-based film podcast hosted by Calum Reed of Ultimate Addict and Pete Sheppard of In the Mood for Blog. This week we reveal our preconceptions about Quentin Tarantino before reviewing his brand new Western "Django Unchained." We're in for the straight-talking intimacy of Ben Lewin's "The Sessions," while the minor releases of Horror anthology "V/H/S" and culinary documentary "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" attempt to whet our appetite. We talk about our favourite screenwriters and on-screen performances of disability, before rounding it all off with some swift SAG predictions. If you savour us when we're at our shortest and snappiest, here's a baby podcast for you. We can't mimic Quentin all of the time...

Discussed on the podcast: 

Listener Question: "Who are your favourite screenwriters?" [Ibbi] [2:45 - 9:30]

Opening Segment: Discussing the early work of Quentin Tarantino, and our review of "Django Unchained" [9:35 - 30:55]


*Preconception Corner*

Reviews of: 

• "V/H/S"
• "Jiro Dreams of Sushi"

[31:00 - 49:45]

Closing Segment: Our take on Ben Lewin's "The Sessions, our favourite disabled performances, and predictions for Sunday's Screen Actors' Guild awards  [49:55 - 1:05:25]

*Shag, Marry or Kill?*
*The Watson Factor*
*The Poupaud Range*

Intro Music: New theme music!
Outro Music: Spark, "Revolving" (Monsieur Adu Reworking of Allegro in C Minor)

Django Unchained (2012)

Django Unchained
Directed by Quentin Tarantino
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Leonardo Di Caprio, Samuel L. Jackson, Kerry Washington
Grade: C

As it so often goes with Tarantino films “Django Unchained” aims for gratuity at the expense of narrative cohesion, the marked difference between this and the rest of his oeuvre being that – as it always threatened to – his rambling, episodic style of filmmaking finally curtails the entire project. There are still some excellent scenes which draw a fully-realised set of characters, but the extraneous way that many of the scenes unfold drags a modest plot through to a near three-hour length. I’d happily watch ‘Django’ again for the sporadic touches of stylistic brilliance, its canny genre hybridism, and the large, enterprising performances from the cast, but it mostly showcases its auteur’s difficulty with shaping a narrative rather than his other many attributes. Indulgence and generosity finally get the better of his scribal tendencies, and this Western gets lost in the sprawl.

Addicts 2009: Actor in a Supporting Role

Niels Arestrup in A Prophet

John Cromwell and his 1950 melodrama Caged was at pains to stress the failings of a system that breeds criminals as much as it punishes them. Luciani, as "top dog" of Audiard's volatile milieu, is seminal to the French director's similar critique of law and order (allbeit with the addition of some shrewd gender switches), emphasising the importance of emulation and association within alpha power struggle. Arestrup roams his territory with the desperation of a canine but little impulsive aggression, appeasing people, dependent upon people, as much as he flaunts his own authority. He makes Luciani a rather sad disciple of a fading mafia hierarchy, failed by the disappearing sense of structure within criminality, and the new young breed of juvenile.

Peter Capaldi in In the Loop

Capaldi's Malcolm Tucker delivers scathing putdowns to whomever he deems his milquetoast bitch of the minute, such is his above-and-beyond role as a 'spin doctor' at the centre of interdependent departmental fuss, even as he exhibits far more independent thought than those that surround him. Capaldi is often 'in the zone', extrapolating his words violently and impulsively, punctuating the script's satirical praxes with the mechanics of his performance rather than distracting from them. Malcolm loses influence when the group cross the Atlantic, unable to exercise as much control as he mediates with men more powerful than he is, and while he noticeably concedes his aggression you can still see him sussing the situation out, deciding whether this ambassador, diplomat etc. is worthy of his time. When faced with the relative incompetence he otherwise bulldozes his true colours emerge, and Capaldi gives Malcolm a sense of superiority that is the elitist essence of political comment, in whatever form.

Woody Harrelson in The Messenger

The early exchanges between Captain Tony Stone and Staff Sergeant Will Montgomery are very one-sided, and a clearly elemental Woody Harrelson revels in projecting Stone's superiority over Will, vehemently outlining the protocol involved as a "messenger". The suggestion of a dillettante power trip always lingers (it's a staple of the army anyway, right?) yet Harrelson works to outline Tony's desire for convergence in his relationship with Will, managing their social exchanges in an attempt to co-erce the younger man into a friendship he would otherwise shun. Harrelson particularly excels in a drunken scene where he admits to not having seen a great deal of front-line action, cleverly bringing Tony's prioritisation of work to the forefront, and revealing just why he is such an intimidating presence in that environment. Intimidating but never threatening; a belligerent workaholic.

Tom Hollander in In the Loop

Don't be fooled, it's difficult difficult LEMON difficult to pull off a character as painfully unaware of his public image, and evidently clueless as to how to build a rapport with the political subjects hanging on his every word. Simon Foster is a silly figure of fun in a silly political satire, and Hollander's regal sentiment is a perfect buffer for Foster's hesitance towards the world of spin. He's self-important but can't back any of this up, thoroughly indoctrinated into prestige and power hangups, clamouring to exercise his status even as it burrows him into more sticky situations than one would care to entertain. The slow moments of realisation that pepper Hollander's meek, mousy demeanor are raucous entertainment, and ensure that he just can't be taken seriously. After all, people don't love Boris Johnson for his competence.

Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds

For what is occasionally plugged as a one-man show, Waltz certainly owes a lot to Tarantino's desire to make both heroes and villains of the piece self-indulgent; they're all "inglourious" to a fault. Furthermore, the multi-lingual nature of Col. Landa and his authoritative position within the narrative, gives him the kind of standout superiority that wins supporters. I'll be darned though if Waltz doesn't rise to this audacious challenge, completely attuned to what the film requires him to be. Landa never really pushes Solondz-style boundaries of support for his anti-semitic quest, but there's always a sense that Waltz is orchestrating everything (even up to his own downfall), tantalising in the film's opening scene, and again in the strudel face-off.

Winner: Christoph Waltz

Runner Up: Niels Arestrup

Best of the Rest: Jason Bateman's shamed politician in State of Play, Thomas Sangster's thoughtful Paul McCartney in Nowhere Boy. Scott Bakula is stellar in The Informant!, and Jose Luis Gomez has magic moments in Broken Embraces.

Other Delights: Andre Holland in Sugar, Bin Won in Mother, and Alec Baldwin in It's Complicated.

Pre-Precursor Oscar Predictions

As things start hotting up on the festival/awards circuit (just 47 days until the National Board of Review announce their 2009 picks) I've decided to make some Oscar predictions. Here they are:-

Green = very likely, Amber = probably, Red = Maybe

BEST PICTURE

An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I wasn't wowed by the Avatar trailer but Cameron has such an amazing pedigree that I don't think it can possibly be a bad film. Maybe the lowered expectation will help it become a hit. Up in the Air and Precious seem the strongest at the moment after their smashing reception at Toronto, and An Education is exactly the kind of film Oscar likes. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up are all early releases that made an impact. The Lovely Bones and Nine, while I'm not convinced they'll be that great, are the kind of films that get nominated for being released in December.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels – Precious
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Rob Marshall – Nine
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Up in the Air seems very strong so I'd expect Reitman to get a second nomination. From there, they love Clint, and the last time Rob Marshall did a musical he nearly got the Oscar. Bigelow has raves and her film is showy visually, and I'm thinking Precious is strong enough to get Daniels into this five, even though it likely won't be remembered for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank – Amelia

Carey Mulligan already looks on track to join the list of nobody-to-somebody starlets that Oscar have occasionally gone for. Streep is a given, and Sidibe looks strong. From there it could be a few, so I went for the baitiest: Michelle Monaghan's indie misery and Swank's juicy biopic. I don't think Michelle Pfeiffer should be nominated, but she's bound to get that Globe comedy nomination, and in 2000 that worked for Juliette Binoche against some much harder-hitting alternatives.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jnr. – Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun

Clooney has another big film and Colin Firth has the reviews of a lifetime. Holbrook and Freeman are veterans with baity roles. Maybe then we need some fun? Robert Downey Jnr. managed a nomination last year for a bit-of-fluff film, so why not as Sherlock Holmes, a very established literary character with notable eccentricities?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench – Nine
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

A bit of a lottery this one beyond Mo'Nique and Moore's buzzed performances. They love Judi Dench beyond measure and she looks like fun in Nine, and Cotillard in the same film may benefit from her turn in Public Enemies earlier in the year, as well as her status as an Oscar-winner. That's assuming she doesn't go lead.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus
Alfred Molina – An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn't get nominated there's something very wrong. Molina and Tucci still have big buzz. Damon in Invictus is a bit of a lottery but he's looking less and less likely to get in for his terrific Informant performance so this may have to do. I expect Kodi Smit-McPhee will get all the Young Actor critic awards and might grab a nomination from SAG, who like to reward the kids.