A Look Ahead To SAG Ensemble

A quick word on the BAFTA nominations, which were generally pretty predictable, but for the rejection of both the BRITISH Emily Blunt and the BRITISH Helen Mirren, in favour of the IRISH Saoirse Ronan and the FRENCH Audrey Tatou. Fear not, Emily Blunt... in a similarly delapidated 2005 field Keira Knightley managed an Oscar nod despite missing SAG and BAFTA. It could still happen.

This year's SAG ceremony happens tonight, a Saturday. I'm weighing up whether this is a positive move for me or not, given that I'm at work at 6am on Sundays but really didn't wanna drink all weekend. Regardless, you'd expect easy wins for Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges, with a Bullock-Streep tussle on the side. I have to concede that I found Sandra Bullock's performance much more impressive than Streep's, but I wouldn't really be disappointed if Meryl won, and I think that neither of them are the best of the five.


Best Acting Ensemble

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious


With the absence of Up in the Air (surprising) and Avatar (not so surprising) from the SAG Ensemble lineup, it's looking like an open contest. If anybody needs to win this it's probably The Hurt Locker, since it's threatening to become this year's critics darling and not the big contender for Oscars it looked a month ago. Though maybe Nine needs it more, since it looks dead in the water for a Best Picture Oscar nomination and may not even get an Acting nomination since the studio have gone all-out for Marion Cotillard in Lead.

I'd say Inglourious Basterds is the frontrunner due to its Awards Season prominence and big cast, but what of An Education? It has great all-around acting and won't win in any other category. Precious is the most "serious" film (especially in terms of acting).

Deserves To Win: Inglourious Basterds
My Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Which 2009 Films Need A Repeat Viewing?

It often goes that after I watch a film I consider its merits for a couple of days. On some occasions I know minutes after I've seen it how I feel about it, and how "good" I think it is, but usually at least twenty-four hours rumination is called for. At the end of the year, after 81 films (just 19 left to see) I'm beginning to reflect on grades from earlier in the year and wondering whether they add up. Here are the assessments I'm particularly doubting...

Antichrist (Current Grade: B+): Yeah, does anyone really need to see this again? I don't intend to buy the film so it may be a while until a repeat viewing. Having said that, I'm very curious as to whether it plays out as powerfully visceral as it did first time around.

Broken Embraces (Current Grade: B+): I marvelled at how Almodovar completely took the piss out of his fondness for trashy melodrama and implemented it into what was a thrilling story of a disastrous love affair. Most people I speak to about this have the opinion that it's average Almodovar at best. I don't know whether to take that as a) an indictment of how much the man has built a reputation, b) a matter of the film's soap-opera style appealing to my tastes more than others, or c) a sign that I over-estimated Broken Embraces a little?

Inglourious Basterds (Current Grade: B): Are those three amazing, unendingly tense scenes still enough to deter the obvious incoherence and crazy final act?

Mr. Nobody (Current Grade: A-): I walked out of the Venice screening of Jaco Van Dormael's Mr. Nobody feeling as if I'd witnessed something titanic; a film that said more about the ever-changing nature of space and time than anything I learned in my degree, and simultaneously managed to make its lecture so fluid, visually enticing and luscious. I confess that I even missed the last moments of the film, and my memory of it as a whole becomes much more hazy. It doesn't look as if the film will get a cinema release here, and it so it seems that I will have to wait a few months until the inevitable straight-to-DVD move occurs. A real shame, actually.

Precious (Current Grade: C+): I felt like Precious was adapted and made as if it took everything for granted. It tries to hark back to an era of gritty urbania with the clumsiness of early black teen comedy, but has none of the soul, and with its production heavies behind it the casting of Mo'Nique and Mariah Carey as if they were plucked from an inner city stage school feels particularly disingenuous. As if Daniels' manic, thoughtless direction wasn't bad enough the character of Mary is handled with such narrow-mindedness that ends in a scene that reeked of sell-out. Convince me I'm wrong.

Thoughts on any of these would be appreciated. Also: are there any grades on the sidebar you find suspect? I like to be urged into rewatching things.

Pre-Precursor Oscar Predictions

As things start hotting up on the festival/awards circuit (just 47 days until the National Board of Review announce their 2009 picks) I've decided to make some Oscar predictions. Here they are:-

Green = very likely, Amber = probably, Red = Maybe

BEST PICTURE

An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I wasn't wowed by the Avatar trailer but Cameron has such an amazing pedigree that I don't think it can possibly be a bad film. Maybe the lowered expectation will help it become a hit. Up in the Air and Precious seem the strongest at the moment after their smashing reception at Toronto, and An Education is exactly the kind of film Oscar likes. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up are all early releases that made an impact. The Lovely Bones and Nine, while I'm not convinced they'll be that great, are the kind of films that get nominated for being released in December.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels – Precious
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Rob Marshall – Nine
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Up in the Air seems very strong so I'd expect Reitman to get a second nomination. From there, they love Clint, and the last time Rob Marshall did a musical he nearly got the Oscar. Bigelow has raves and her film is showy visually, and I'm thinking Precious is strong enough to get Daniels into this five, even though it likely won't be remembered for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank – Amelia

Carey Mulligan already looks on track to join the list of nobody-to-somebody starlets that Oscar have occasionally gone for. Streep is a given, and Sidibe looks strong. From there it could be a few, so I went for the baitiest: Michelle Monaghan's indie misery and Swank's juicy biopic. I don't think Michelle Pfeiffer should be nominated, but she's bound to get that Globe comedy nomination, and in 2000 that worked for Juliette Binoche against some much harder-hitting alternatives.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jnr. – Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun

Clooney has another big film and Colin Firth has the reviews of a lifetime. Holbrook and Freeman are veterans with baity roles. Maybe then we need some fun? Robert Downey Jnr. managed a nomination last year for a bit-of-fluff film, so why not as Sherlock Holmes, a very established literary character with notable eccentricities?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench – Nine
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

A bit of a lottery this one beyond Mo'Nique and Moore's buzzed performances. They love Judi Dench beyond measure and she looks like fun in Nine, and Cotillard in the same film may benefit from her turn in Public Enemies earlier in the year, as well as her status as an Oscar-winner. That's assuming she doesn't go lead.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus
Alfred Molina – An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn't get nominated there's something very wrong. Molina and Tucci still have big buzz. Damon in Invictus is a bit of a lottery but he's looking less and less likely to get in for his terrific Informant performance so this may have to do. I expect Kodi Smit-McPhee will get all the Young Actor critic awards and might grab a nomination from SAG, who like to reward the kids.