A Marathon's End: Final Oscar Predictions

Once it gets to this stage of awards season, much has already been decided; winners have already been crowned, and although people may tell you otherwise, the chance of an upset in the major categories is relatively tiny. "The Artist" will win Best Picture and Michel Hazanavicius will win Best Director, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise, primarily because there isn't a legitimate opponent beyond pockets of support for "The Help" and also because it encompasses everything the Oscars stand for: traditional, crafted, and celebratory of cinema.

At this stage, Jean Dujardin losing the Best Actor Oscar would be a massive upset, but Meryl Streep triumphing over Viola Davis probably less of one, given that only one black actress has ever won in the category, and the Academy's long-standing affection for biographical performances. What gives Davis the edge is the popularity of "The Help" -- with audiences, guilds, and many critics -- and the sympathies associated with her character. The Supporting categories look sewn up, since Spencer and Plummer have been cleaning up in all of the precursors.

The screenplay categories look less locked, with "The Artist" and "Midnight in Paris" duelling it out on the Original side, and "The Descendants" facing off against the might of Sorkin and Zailian's "Moneyball" in Adapted. The Best Picture winner usually wins for its script, but I imagine that affection for Woody Allen's crowned comeback will see voters tick the box for his film, which won't win in any other category, and that the sole prize for Alexander Payne's glum Hawaiian adventure will happen here, too, despite it being far less complex or bracing than its main competitor.

Other iffy categories include Best Costume Design, which could represent an Oscar win for Madonna's critically-trounced "W.E," if its win with the Costume Designers Guild translates, but could also easily go to "Anonymous," "Jane Eyre," or three-time Oscar winner Sandy Powell for "Hugo." But I think this prize might go to "The Artist," on the coat-tails of its overall popularity, and for its undeniably well-tailored resurrection of Hollywood's golden age. I'm throwing my hands up where the sound categories are concerned, and wondering whether a bone will be thrown to "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," which, with five nominations, is surely a popular enough film to want to reward somewhere. The Visual Effects Oscar rarely goes to a Best Picture nominee, but if "The Golden Compass" can beat "Transformers," I think Martin Scorsese's film can also manage it.

I'm going to justify the possibility of heavily-favoured critical darling  "A Separation" losing the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar to Agnieska Holland's "In Darkness," which has strong holocaust themes (often attractive to AMPAS) and a filmmaker behind it with an Academy-endorsed pedigree. I also think that "A Separation" is at a slight disadvantage with regard to America's strained political relationship with the Middle East, despite the film's internal critique of Iran.

That's all that's left to say, except that, wherever you are tomorrow night, and whatever you're drinking, try not to be too disappointed when your favourite loses. It's often best to treat the Academy's better decisions like a toddler using a potty, or a teenager making their bed in the morning. We're primed for disappointment when they turn around and do something stupid at the next available opportunity. Personally, this set of winners (especially in the acting department) would represent a great list of awardees to me, but it won't please everyone. When Emmanuel Lubezki loses Best Cinematography again, take a leaf out of Norman Maine's book. Stand upright, throw back a drink, and let the waves wash over you.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Best Picture: "The Artist" 
(Alt: "The Help")

Best Actress: Viola Davis, "The Help"
(Alt: Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady")

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
(Alt: George Clooney, "The Descendants")

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
(Alt: Berenice Bejo, "The Artist")

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
(Alt: Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close")

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicus, "The Artist"
(Alt: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo")

Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
(Alt: Michel Hazanivicius, "The Artist")

Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
(Alt: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, "Moneyball")

Best Foreign Feature: "In Darkness" (Poland)
(Alt: "A Separation" (Iran))

Best Animated Feature: "Rango"
(Alt: "Chico & Rita")

Art Direction: "Hugo"
(Alt: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2")

Cinematography: "The Tree of Life"
(Alt: "Hugo")

Costume Design: "The Artist"
(Alt: "W.E.")

Documentary Feature: "Hell and Back Again"
(Alt: "Undefeated")

Documentary Short Subject: "Saving Face"
(Alt: "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom")

Film Editing: "The Artist"
(Alt: "The Descendants")

Makeup: "The Iron Lady"

Original Score: "The Artist"
(Alt: "War Horse")

Original Song: 'Man or Muppet' from "The Muppets"

Sound Editing: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
(Alt: "Hugo")

Sound Mixing: "Hugo"
(Alt: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo")

Visual Effects: "Hugo"
(Alt: "Rise of the Planet of the Apes")

Short Film (Animated): "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore"
(Alt: "A Morning Stroll")

Short Film (Live Action): "Tuba Atlantic"
(Alt: "The Shore")

Screen Actors Guild: Nominations & Reaction

This year the Screen Actors Guild Nominations and Golden Globe nominations occur just a day apart, giving the biggest indicator as to what/who will be nominated at the Oscars in January.

The SAG nominations are below, along with reactions and pre-nomination analysis.

Ensemble:

• “The Artist”

• “Bridesmaids”

• “The Descendants”

• “The Help”

• "Midnight in Paris"


Reaction: I don't consider "Midnight in Paris" a particularly meaty ensemble, so this is probably more about them appreciating the film. Poor "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" looks a goner this awards season.


Prediction score: 4/5, missing “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” for "Midnight in Paris."

Prediction Summary: I may be dropping the ball here by not predicting “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” for anything, but aren’t they risking things greatly with this last-gasp grab for attention? As I was reliably informed on Twitter this week, even “Million Dollar Baby” had screened for most of the press by the end of November. In any case, neither Daldry’s film, nor Scorsese’s “Hugo,”nor Spielberg’s “War Horse” seem like the immediate go-to-feature for ensemble prizes, peppered with veteran actors here and there, but essentially led by youngsters. It might finally be time for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”and its British thespian talent to join the precursor party, but it’s unclear whether anyone has particularly taken to the film.

“The Artist,” “The Descendants, “ and “The Help” are probably the three wisest predictions for an eventual Oscar winner, and they’ve all got sufficient enough cast lists (John Goodman, James Cromwell and Malcolm McDowell give the former a leg up here) to comfortably make this guild’s lineup. And why not “Bridesmaids,” which nearly everyone liked, and which boasts a wonderful set of comedic performers?

Leading Actress:

• Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
• Viola Davis, "The Help"

• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

• Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”

• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

Reaction: So Glenn Close has clout! This was a game-saver, given that I don't particularly think the Globes are going to go for this film in as big a way. If they don't, this is gonna be a mighty unpredictable year in this category.


Prediction score: 4/5, missing Close for Charlize Theron, who this hurts a little but who still has a chance.


Prediction summary: This could well be what the eventual Oscar lineup looks like, but realistically this could go any-which-way-but Mara (kidding!) Davis, Streep, and Williams all look strong, while Theron and Swinton look fairly comfortable – even with characters and films that will inevitably deter some from investing fully. I’d suggest watching out for the hot trio of Elizabeth Olsen, Felicity Jones, Kirsten Dunst as spoilers to the party, or of course that veteran Actress with gender-swapping credentials, but currently without any precursor support.

Leading Actor:

• Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"

• George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Leonardo Di Caprio, "J. Edgar"
• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Reaction: *sigh* I often find that SAG opt for blander, more uniform choices than even the Academy can tend to. Di Caprio fits the bill on this occasion, but it's nice to see Demian Bichir's accomplished performance in a tiny film gather some awards traction. This is awfully crowded, isn't it?


Prediction score: 3/5, since I mistakenly thought that those fans gunning for Fassbender and Shannon would bring about some much-needed nuance in this lineup.


Prediction summary: You would think Gary Oldman would be able to make a dent in this category, given the overdue status and immense appreciation for him in the industry, but this is going to be tough. Fassbender and Shannon appear to be sharing the spoils in the lesser-seen-actor-to-champion stakes, and so Oldman, along with Harrelson, may well have to go without. A Dujardin snub isn’t out of the question, but if it happened it wouldn’t be that disastrous for him, since the Oscar could still be his with a three-way split.

Supporting Actress:

• Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”

• Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

• Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"

• Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
• Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Reaction: Wow. It's good to see the best Chastain performance singled out in as important an Oscar precursor as this one. They clearly appreciated "Albert Nobbs" much more than critics, although they also went for "Get Low" last year, which eventually got shuffled out of the mix. Can the excellent Melissa McCarthy hold on for Oscar, despite the crass role and inherent comedy bias?


Prediction score: 2/5, and I'm glad to be. Apart from Redgrave's snub, the guild definitely got this category as right as they could have.


Prediction summary: This “The Tree of Life” isn’t an obvious pick for an ensemble prize, but actors’ sensibilities may still be more attuned to this film than something like “The Help,” which could pose problems for Chastain’s perceived chief assault on a Supporting actress nomination. I’d be very surprised if an actors guild didn’t warm to the serious chops of Redgrave’s performance in “Coriolanus,” even if the film doesn’t have a particularly high profile.

Supporting Actor:

• Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"

• Armie Hammer, "J. Edgar"

• Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

• Nick Nolte, "Warrior"

• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”


Reaction: It's especially great to see Nick Nolte singled out for his excellent performance in "Warrior." Hammer and Hill were considerably off the radar (for entirely different reasons) but this gives them a definite leg-up. Kenneth Branagh should be fairly safe now.


Prediction score: 1/5. Disastrous, but there were an awful lot of guys in the mix. I should have predicted Branagh.

Prediction summary: With regard to Pitt, refer to what I said earlier about “The Tree of Life.” From there: Kingsley and Forster have small roles in big films, and there isn’t an awful lot of competition around. Beyond Brooks and Plummer this is rather a wildcard category.

Review: The Descendants

The Descendants

Directed by Alexander Payne

Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Matthew Lillard, Judy Greer, Robert Forster

Grade: C+

As maudlin voiceovers go, Miranda July’s cat-on-a-deathbed soliloquy in “The Future” has competition for the prize of ‘most annoying of 2011’, as George Clooney’s opening gambit in the wearily-spirited “The Descendants” may narrowly beat it out. In a speech in which Hawaii is characterised as a pillar of heritage, Clooney’s Matt King divulges to the audience the exposition that director Alexander Payne (“Election,” “About Schmidt,” “Sideways”) neglects to integrate into the narrative insightfully – which is that Matt’s wife Elizabeth is in a coma as a result of a boating accident, and that he’s struggling to take care of his two daughters. A fine premise for a film, given Payne’s history of resisting the urge to plumb the tearjerking sensitivities in his scripts for emotional effect, but as “The Descendants” proves: there’s always one exception to the rule.

Burgeoning talent Shailene Woodley’s entrance into the story as inebriated, frolicking teen Alexandra gives her the tag of the problem child, but is dismantled fairly soon after the daughters are rounded up to hunt down their dying mother’s fellow adulterer. The film charts Matt’s attempts to deal with the revelations of his wife’s recent behaviour, and his confrontation with the reality that many of his questions about their life together may well be left unanswered. In the midst of crises Matt’s relationship with his two daughters slowly comes together, revealing them to be a genuine unit, even as the early scenes had threatened to expose this as a hiding to nowhere. The genealogical angle employed to give the title added meaning sees Matt and his shareholder relatives in negotiations to sell the expanse of land on the island belonging to their ancestors, providing him with a secondary avenue in which to determine what ‘family’ means.

“The Descendants” boasts an unlikely setup for a comedy, but its blackness comes off as largely honest. The use of the Hawaiian setting to illustrate the film’s theme of disconnection works effectively in mirroring the tenuous nature of the frayed relationships within the family, and, whether as a result of having to make do with being thrown together or through the guidance of a director looking to develop the premise through the skills of his actors, the ensemble of “The Descendants” find a way to somewhat authenticate this band of people. There’s a makeshift sense of construction to their interactions which works within the film’s dramatic arc, and Payne’s presentation of familial solidarity-in-progress at least finds a way to resonate uniquely and effectively. Much of this can be attributed to the supporting performances surrounding Clooney, whose instincts for dry comedy have always felt like a neutered form of his zany “O’ Brother Where Art Thou” shtick. He has soulful moments but mostly relies upon the presence of Krause, Miller, and particularly Woodley alongside him, whose layered performance looks set to grab awards attention.

The problems lie in the strange tone of the film, and the tendencies of the humour to cheaply play to the audience. With alarming regularity, Clooney and his troupe go island-hopping at the drop of a hat, aided by tag-a-long Californian oaf Sid in the designated role of an outspoken jackass. There’s more than an element of “Little Miss Sunshine” to this family-outing setup, diluted by the morbidity and emotion of the predicament, but nonetheless indicative of Chabrol-style whimsy, alienating us from the characters as much as it draws us to them. Payne isn’t shy when it comes to big confrontation scenes, but he often uses directness to further the story when it doesn’t seem best appropriate, and his and Clooney’s attempts to extricate empathy for Matt occasionally fall on deaf ears.

There's something of Alexander Payne lurking in "The Descendants," beneath its unmistakeable plotting, infantile humour, and precious advocacy of togetherness. It has the midlife crisis-element of “Sideways,” the adolescent angst present in “Election,” but, more than anything else, exhibits the caustic charm of "About Schmidt" – albeit with a touch more humanity and considerably less nudity. Like Almodovar with the maligned “Broken Embraces” Payne’s auteurial gaze rakes over old ground, but lightly riffs rather than wickedly satirising, and ultimately feels like a backwards tread. However well its assemblage of young actors can pull off ‘artfully precocious’ with rounded aplomb, “The Descendants” surely represents this filmmaker’s most flawed work to date.

George Clooney in 2011: The Ides of March vs. The Descendants

As has become somewhat customary in the past five or six years, George Clooney is likely to find himself in the Awards mix once again in 2011. The newly-celebrated quinquagenarian has two healthy-looking projects set for release in the later months: Alexander Payne's "The Descendants," and his own fourth directorial venture, "The Ides of March."

"The Descendants" is the story of an estranged father, who attempts to re-connect with his two daughters when their mother is fatally injured in an accident - which is likely to resurrect themes Payne explored in 2002's "About Schmidt" (namely, grief and personal crisis). Nevertheless, this film's cast is considerably younger, which might suggest that "The Descendants" represents a fresher take on familial struggle that doesn't focus too much on mortality. I wasn't much of a fan of "Schmidt," or indeed Jack Nicholson as its leading man, but many were enthused with what Payne did with the film, and it gained some major awards attention.

First clip from "The Descendants":







Clooney's own filmmaking efforts see him return to a political arena, which is hardly surprising after the critical and box office failure of "Leatherheads." I wasn't as keen on his first two directorial feats as most, but they both rank favourably compared to that 2008 screwball comedy. Latest film, "The Ides of March," will pit Ryan Gosling as an impassioned but fledgling politics enthusiast, who has his eyes opened to the dirty dealings of the political world while part of a Presidential campaign trail. Clooney also stars in the movie, which is based on a novel adapted by Grant Heslov, who he worked closely with on "Goodnight, and Good Luck."

Ryan Gosling and George Clooney on the set of "The Ides of March"

"Ides" is slated for October, while "The Descendants" is scheduled for a release in December, meaning that either/or is likely to make it to Venice or Toronto to build awards buzz. It could be that Clooney finds himself nominated for Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor (which would be one-up from 2005's achievements), but as with all Oscar prognostication at this early stage, it's far too easy to say. "Ides" feels more likely to succeed given that it's political and probably more mainstream than Alexander Payne's soul-bearing projects tend to be. One thing that is for sure: both are definitely encouraging for their respective leading actors.

Pre-Precursor Oscar Predictions

As things start hotting up on the festival/awards circuit (just 47 days until the National Board of Review announce their 2009 picks) I've decided to make some Oscar predictions. Here they are:-

Green = very likely, Amber = probably, Red = Maybe

BEST PICTURE

An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I wasn't wowed by the Avatar trailer but Cameron has such an amazing pedigree that I don't think it can possibly be a bad film. Maybe the lowered expectation will help it become a hit. Up in the Air and Precious seem the strongest at the moment after their smashing reception at Toronto, and An Education is exactly the kind of film Oscar likes. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up are all early releases that made an impact. The Lovely Bones and Nine, while I'm not convinced they'll be that great, are the kind of films that get nominated for being released in December.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels – Precious
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Rob Marshall – Nine
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Up in the Air seems very strong so I'd expect Reitman to get a second nomination. From there, they love Clint, and the last time Rob Marshall did a musical he nearly got the Oscar. Bigelow has raves and her film is showy visually, and I'm thinking Precious is strong enough to get Daniels into this five, even though it likely won't be remembered for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank – Amelia

Carey Mulligan already looks on track to join the list of nobody-to-somebody starlets that Oscar have occasionally gone for. Streep is a given, and Sidibe looks strong. From there it could be a few, so I went for the baitiest: Michelle Monaghan's indie misery and Swank's juicy biopic. I don't think Michelle Pfeiffer should be nominated, but she's bound to get that Globe comedy nomination, and in 2000 that worked for Juliette Binoche against some much harder-hitting alternatives.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jnr. – Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun

Clooney has another big film and Colin Firth has the reviews of a lifetime. Holbrook and Freeman are veterans with baity roles. Maybe then we need some fun? Robert Downey Jnr. managed a nomination last year for a bit-of-fluff film, so why not as Sherlock Holmes, a very established literary character with notable eccentricities?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench – Nine
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

A bit of a lottery this one beyond Mo'Nique and Moore's buzzed performances. They love Judi Dench beyond measure and she looks like fun in Nine, and Cotillard in the same film may benefit from her turn in Public Enemies earlier in the year, as well as her status as an Oscar-winner. That's assuming she doesn't go lead.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus
Alfred Molina – An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn't get nominated there's something very wrong. Molina and Tucci still have big buzz. Damon in Invictus is a bit of a lottery but he's looking less and less likely to get in for his terrific Informant performance so this may have to do. I expect Kodi Smit-McPhee will get all the Young Actor critic awards and might grab a nomination from SAG, who like to reward the kids.