Team Jacob Edward Oscar

Is it me or was the ceremony shorter this year? They seemed to pack so much stuff into last year's production that this all felt very slight, neither terrible nor wonderful. Just, plain. Even the opening musical number didn't work (I managed to make out about three lines of lyric) and the hosts, beyond the amusing introduction, became pretty much redundant as it went on. And speaking of redundant, I like John Hughes as much as the next guy but a lot of people died in 2009, some of which I hold in much higher regard than him. Did he even manage an Oscar nomination? I also reckon I'm more of a horror fan than most but the genre-dedicated montage was the most random, throwaway element of the entire show. It also didn't help that there were ten Best Picture nominees to present, which I suspect is where some of the extra time went, the remainder being given to more advertisers?

The positive changes were the extended clips for the Supporting nominees (even if this didn't transfer to the Leading nominees), and the more patient approach to speeches and timing, even if that seemingly gave Tom Hanks the thankless task of rattling off the Best Picture winner in about five seconds. The friends/colleagues launching into praise about each Leading Actor and Actress nominee initially felt cute with the presence of Michelle Pfeiffer, but I just don't buy this approach to presenting the category. Tradition is sometimes best, and trust me I don't say that very often.

What I really didn't like about this year's Oscar race overall was that the bigger Best Picture field made voters more obligated to include "popular" films, as if there is suddenly a lot of doubt about the Academy's ability to represent contemporary cinema. If you ask me, it's taken a hell of a long time for them to realise this, but the state of contemporary studio productions generally leave a lot to be desired, so I guess the snob in me kind of doesn't want them to lower the traditional bar. You may recall I was hugely upset at the exclusion of The Dark Knight and Wall-E from last year's Best Picture lineup, but there are rarely action and animation films as good as these two. Shouldn't we be encouraging the Academy to nominate quality in whatever form, rather than passable films they assume the public liked? If they hadn't been so hasty in altering the category and voting system then wouldn't the lowering age demographic of the Academy have taken care of old-guard ideas of prestige anyway?

So in the end this year's Academy Awards resulted in the most predictable set of acting winners since 2003's quartet, anointing Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique. Despite the continued attempts to appeal to a younger audience, anchored by the presence of Zac Efron, Taylor Lautner and co. Best Picture and Director was given to The Hurt Locker, a film that didn't even make $10m at the U.S. Box Office, and who I doubt most teenagers hadn't heard of until this moment. The Hurt Locker is my favourite Best Picture winner since James Cameron made Titanic, one of the greatest films I've ever seen and worthier than Avatar by a country mile.

Here is the full list of winners:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Foreign Language Film: The Secret in Their Eyes, Argentina
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Original Score: Up
Best Cinematography: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Live Action Short: The New Tenants
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Adapted Screenplay: Geoffrey Fletcher, Up in the Air
Best Animated Short Film: Logorama
Best Documentary Short Subject: Music by Prudence
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

My Prediction Score: 17/24 (Not bad, huh?)

Plus, I made over £25 betting on The Cove and The Secret of Their Eyes

Final Oscar Predictions: Part II

Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz in Nine
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo'Nique in Precious

My Preference: Mo'Nique
My Prediction: Mo'Nique

This has been done for a long time now. I'm kind of disappointed how this category turned out because Samantha Morton, Melanie Laurent, Julianne Moore, and Marion Cotillard are all better than at least 60% of these women.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon in Invictus
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

My Preference: Christoph Waltz
My Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Completely deserves to win and I think he's in the right category. I expected more of a rally for Plummer's career honour, but that never really materialised. I suppose a nomination is honour enough.

Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

My Preference: Carey Mulligan
My Prediction: Sandra Bullock

It seems as if Bullock will win, since The Blind Side gained enough momentum to claim a Best Picture spot, and mostly on the back of her performance. Everyone who voted for it will vote for her, and all the Precious fans will vote Sidibe, which doesn't really leave room for Meryl Streep's third Oscar. Possible fireworks here, though.

Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

My Preference: Colin Firth
My Prediction: Jeff Bridges

One of those 'Paul Newman in Colour of Money' type wins that nobody really minds, even though you know it's not for the performance. There's usually at least one a year.

Animated Feature Film

Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

My Preference: Coraline
My Prediction: Up

Pixar won't win the big one, but a nomination there and a win here is hefty reward for a film that was nowhere close to being their best.

Foreign Language Film

Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
A Prophet (France)
The Secret of Her Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

My Preference: A Prophet
My Prediction: The Secret of Her Eyes

This category is notoriously unpredictable due to the alternative voting methods. A Prophet and The White Ribbon are films by very reputable filmmakers, but they're both heavy, heavy films, that I'm surprised managed to turn enough people on to get included here anyway. Argentina's The Secret of Her Eyes has been talked about for a while now, and people seemingly like it, so why not?

Directing

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Preference: Kathryn Bigelow
My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow

This has to happen, doesn't it?

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

My Preference: In the Loop
My Prediction: Up in the Air

It's gonna be close between Air and Precious but I reckon they'll hand it to Reitman's film, given that it won't win anything else.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

It could go to Inglourious but I'm not so sure.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

I have to believe that Locker wins this, because if it loses to Avatar I'm gonna be inconsolable. Outside shot for Inglourious since it's a much easier watch than these two and has become a viable option.

Final Oscar Predictions: Part I

Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: Avatar

At one point it was looking as if Avatar had every Tech award in the bag, but it seems that The Hurt Locker still poses a challenge in that regard. However, the competition for James Cameron's film in this category seems pretty limp. Nothing stands out as a huge feat, and so this should be an easy get.

Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

My Prediction: Avatar

This could go to either Ackroyd or Berger, but I suspect that Fiore will take it for Avatar, since it's the "prettiest" and feels the most visual.

Costume Design

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: The Young Victoria

Although I think every other designer in this line-up did a better job than Sandy Powell in 2009 The Young Victoria has come at just the right time to emerge as the British period winner that frequently pops up here.

Documentary Feature

Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

My Prediction: The Cove

It's March of the Penguins all over again. How can you compete with the cute dolphins? Regardless of that, The Cove is pretty devastatingly effective when it wants to be and will complete its sweep on Sunday.

Documentary (Short Subject)

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit à la Berlin

My Prediction: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

I've found it's best to go for the most sympathetic, humanist option in this category. The tears have me sold.

Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Again this seems like a battle between the "big two", but The Hurt Locker's editing is much more frantic and obvious so I reckon it's got the upper hand.

Makeup

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: Il Divo

There isn't really an obvious winner in this category so I'm going to go for Il Divo. Its cosmetics clearly has admirers so why not?

Music (Original Score)

Avatar
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

My Prediction: Up

Tough call since The Hurt Locker's surprise inclusion here. Giacchino's seems much cuter, and there's no other obvious winner so he could coast through to a win based on the love for Wall-E last year.

Music (Original Song)

Almost There, The Princess and the Frog
Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
Loin de Paname, Paris 36
Take It All, Nine
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

My Prediction: The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

It could be the Paris 36 song, but I'm still thinking this.

Short Film (Animated)

French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
Logorama
The Lady and the Reaper
A Matter of Loaf and Death

My Prediction: A Matter of Loaf and Death

They love Wallace and Gromit.

Short Film (Live Action)

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

My Prediction: The Door

About a woman grieving for her dead daughter.

Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

My Prediction: Avatar

Loudest.

Sound Mixing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

My Prediction: Avatar

Ditto.

Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

My Prediction: Avatar

Duh.

Oh No They Didn't: Some Words on The Last Station

The Last Station

Directed by Michael Hoffman

Starring: James McAvoy, Helen Mirren, Christopher Plummer, Paul Giamatti, Kerry Condon, Ann-Marie Duff

Grade: C -

Pantomime season has been and gone, but if you're sorry you missed it you may want to check out Michael Hoffman's The Last Station, a theatrical vision of War and Peace author Leo Tolstoy's final days in Russia. Playing less like an historical biopic than a domestic melodrama (largely independent of any real historical context anyway) The Last Station flaunts a carousel of characters devoted to Christopher Plummer's Tolstoy and proceeds to let them duel it out to win his ultimate favour. A bold move perhaps, but one that threatens to alienate its subject even as the emphasis upon accessibility descends the setup into soap opera-levels of simplicity.

The Last Station recognises and even promotes its own silliness, through the farcical nature of Sofya Tolstoy's thinly-disguised contempt for her husband's politics and the tactless nature with which she seeks to preserve her family's status. Helen Mirren as Mrs. Tolstoy flails around shouting, screaming, and smashing things, and has some truly absurd dialogue to spout, the height of which occurs after she jumps into the lake in a faux attempt at suicide, only to emerge with the clarity and single-mindedness of a woman possessed, barking orders at her staff to find out which train Mr. Tolstoy boarded after he left her. Mirren is disastrous, exhibiting everything that is wrong about the film with barely a second thought, reluctant to alter any perceptions of her one-track character, impulsive but so rehearsed that her acid-tongued remarks seem self-conscious and throwaway.

The Last Station's countless rowdy moments are blatantly for show, and engulf everything else the film has to say about devotion, idolisation, and adolescence, even though what it does say about these elements amounts to little more than tokenness. McAvoy conveys Valentin's affection and belief for Tolstoy well, and is the only member of the cast who really sells the historical backstory, but the familiar journey from boy-to-man (The Last King of Scotland is a better example of this) is lost in the melee of legal disputes and marital conflict. It also doesn't help that The Last Station seems to conclude that, however influential, Tolstoy was actually rather ambivalent about his own work, and a slightly eccentric figurehead that wasn't really worth all of the fuss.

Blind......Side

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Prediction Score: 8/10

And the story of the year is clearly The Blind Side. I was guffawed at both hearing it mentioned and hearing it cheered. This is a film with only one real redeeming quality, and she's getting enough attention as it is. Aside from that, I'm not disappointed that District 9 is in the list, since it's at least a lot gutsier than Invictus or 500 Days of Summer.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I'm really not a fan of this list. Bigelow and Tarantino were both great, but the others? And Lee Daniels has to go down as the worst Director nominee for a long while.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Prediction Score: 5/5

Standard. Pleased for Jeremy and Colin.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Prediction Score: 5/5

The Young Victoria's strong showing in the techs may suggest that Blunt wasn't far away, but The Last Station does scream "BAIT!" so it's hardly surprising that Mirren was able to hold on.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I think I've probably already seen the best two performances (Harrelson and Waltz) but I'm generally pleased by this lineup.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Prediction Score: 3/5

It was a bit of a lottery up until the end, but I'm especially shocked that Samantha Morton couldn't manage to break into this five, given that The Messenger got a screenplay nomination and her role is exactly what Oscar likes. It's nice that Maggie Gyllenhaal finally has a nomination, though I'm not hearing too many people crow about her. Marion Cotillard gave two great performances this year and got shafted.

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I'm absoloutely delighted that In the Loop is nominated.

Best Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

Prediction Score: 4/5

Ditto for The Messenger. They really hate James Cameron's dialogue, don't they?

Best Animated Feature Film
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up”

I'm sure 95% of people were like me and responded with a puzzled "Eh?" when The Secret of Kells was announced. I like that they so obviously saw all of the options.

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami” (Israel)
“The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)


Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“The Hurt Locker”
“The White Ribbon”

Best Costume Design
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”

Best Makeup
“Il Divo”
“Star Trek”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Music (Original Score)
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Up”

Best Music (Original Song)
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″
“Take it All” from “Nine”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Up”

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

Best Documentary Feature
“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove”
“Food, Inc.”
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
“Which Way Home”

Best Documentary Short
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
“The Last Campaign of Booth Gardener”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Rabbit a la Berlin”

Best Short Film (Animated)
“French Roast”
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
“The Lady and the Reaper”
“Logorama”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death”

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“The Door”
“Instead of Abracadabra”
“Kavi”
“Miracle Fish”
“The New Tenants”

Final Oscar Nomination Predix

Best Picture

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Alternates: District 9, Crazy Heart, Where the Wild Things Are

I think that District 9 is far from a lock, since it came out a while ago and is essentially an action blockbuster. It's a film with passionate followers but how many? Competition is sturdy. From there, A Serious Man doesn't look that strong but there's no denying the film's Jewishness will appeal to certain quarters of the Academy, and the Coen's are fast becoming Oscar staples. 500 Days has been hitting top tens all year but can it make the one that matters? I don't see why not given that its had a long time to gain fans and a status as an offbeat hit.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon



Lee Daniels still seems like an awfully outlandish pick for the Academy to make. Eastwood's inclusion would show a lack of imagination but at this point seems the more likely bet, but can Michael Haneke steal in with a film bound for two nominations anyway and with one of the few real "prestige" films left in the contest?

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Alternate: Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria

I couldn't bring myself to predict Emily Blunt, though everything suggests to me that Helen Mirren is on shaky ground.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Matt Damon - The Informant!

This seems nailed on.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger

Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Nine

Samantha Morton missed Globe and SAG but there's shades of In America. The girl is clearly a favourite with the Academy, and her role is exactly the kind that gets nominated in this category. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga will coast in without any kind of category confusion, leaving Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger, Julianne Moore, Marion Cotillard, and Melanie Laurent to fight it out for the fifth spot.

With the packed nature of the race it would seem wise to ditch the people with any category confusion and go for Cruz or Moore, whose precursor presence has been fairly consistent. But still, I can't help thinking that Diane Kruger's SAG nomination was because they couldn't vote for Laurent, and that the younger Actress will receive enough #1 ballots to place her above the competition.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Matt Damon - Invictus

It seems wrong to tamper with Globe and SAG but Christian McKay's gimmicky turn is something Oscar have historically gone for. Time then to sub out the youngest guy, though I still don't think that Plummer is a done deal either.

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Alternate: The Hangover

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Alternate: Crazy Heart

National Board of Review: Predictions

It's very scary that a year has lapsed since the last time the National Board of Review announced their ten favourite films of 2008. Last year was uninspired (in truth I've yet to be inspired by an NBR choice) with a typical bout of love for Clint Eastwood and Edward Zwick, as well as a ball-rolling canonisation of Slumdog Millionaire. My prediction score last year was six out of eleven (top ten plus winner) and none of the acting winners. Hoping for an improvement...

Best Picture: Bright Star

The NBR rewarded almost every British period drama with its big prize in the eighties and nineties -- A Passage To India, A Room With a View, Howard's End, Sense and Sensibility -- and followed that up with wins for British period drama's like Quills, The Hours, and Finding Neverland. Recent years have seen them embrace more divisive films but I think it's time they returned to unspoken love and wistful landscape. Bright Star needs this endorsement and I reckon Jane Campion's film will get it.

Best Director: Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Wild guess. Apparently a film with mass appeal and something inoffensively charming. Jason Reitman is building up a fanbase. Expecting major losses to Precious and The Hurt Locker in the critics awards so a mention here would be valuable.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated/Julie & Julia

I don't love Meryl's Julia turn but it has many fans. Word is she's dynamite in the Meyers film too. Looks ominous.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney - Up in the Air

If he can win for Michael Clayton he can definitely win for this.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Marion Cotillard - Nine/Public Enemies

Two juicy roles and they really like to reward stars for multiple turns. If this happens and they continue to campaign Marion as lead the two Actress races are going to be really interesting.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles

Why not?

Top Ten Films:

The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Julie and Julia
The Last Station
Nine
Precious
Public Enemies
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Pre-Precursor Oscar Predictions

As things start hotting up on the festival/awards circuit (just 47 days until the National Board of Review announce their 2009 picks) I've decided to make some Oscar predictions. Here they are:-

Green = very likely, Amber = probably, Red = Maybe

BEST PICTURE

An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I wasn't wowed by the Avatar trailer but Cameron has such an amazing pedigree that I don't think it can possibly be a bad film. Maybe the lowered expectation will help it become a hit. Up in the Air and Precious seem the strongest at the moment after their smashing reception at Toronto, and An Education is exactly the kind of film Oscar likes. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up are all early releases that made an impact. The Lovely Bones and Nine, while I'm not convinced they'll be that great, are the kind of films that get nominated for being released in December.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels – Precious
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Rob Marshall – Nine
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Up in the Air seems very strong so I'd expect Reitman to get a second nomination. From there, they love Clint, and the last time Rob Marshall did a musical he nearly got the Oscar. Bigelow has raves and her film is showy visually, and I'm thinking Precious is strong enough to get Daniels into this five, even though it likely won't be remembered for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Michelle Monaghan – Trucker
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank – Amelia

Carey Mulligan already looks on track to join the list of nobody-to-somebody starlets that Oscar have occasionally gone for. Streep is a given, and Sidibe looks strong. From there it could be a few, so I went for the baitiest: Michelle Monaghan's indie misery and Swank's juicy biopic. I don't think Michelle Pfeiffer should be nominated, but she's bound to get that Globe comedy nomination, and in 2000 that worked for Juliette Binoche against some much harder-hitting alternatives.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jnr. – Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun

Clooney has another big film and Colin Firth has the reviews of a lifetime. Holbrook and Freeman are veterans with baity roles. Maybe then we need some fun? Robert Downey Jnr. managed a nomination last year for a bit-of-fluff film, so why not as Sherlock Holmes, a very established literary character with notable eccentricities?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench – Nine
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

A bit of a lottery this one beyond Mo'Nique and Moore's buzzed performances. They love Judi Dench beyond measure and she looks like fun in Nine, and Cotillard in the same film may benefit from her turn in Public Enemies earlier in the year, as well as her status as an Oscar-winner. That's assuming she doesn't go lead.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus
Alfred Molina – An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn't get nominated there's something very wrong. Molina and Tucci still have big buzz. Damon in Invictus is a bit of a lottery but he's looking less and less likely to get in for his terrific Informant performance so this may have to do. I expect Kodi Smit-McPhee will get all the Young Actor critic awards and might grab a nomination from SAG, who like to reward the kids.