In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 32

EPISODE 32: Baying For Blood

[1:21:59]

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It's Episode 32 of In the Mood for Podcast, a British-based film podcast hosted by Calum Reed of Ultimate Addict and Pete Sheppard of In the Mood for Blog. This week we react to the shock omissions in the recent Oscar nominations, and the dynamic of the race after Sunday's Golden Globes. We tackle two aggressive new releases in period mob flick "Gangster Squad" and vampire drama "Midnight Son," while Cal goes it alone for the decidedly cosier "Safety Not Guaranteed." And then we get to the main event, as Tom Hooper's musical "Les Miserables"gets the 'mood for' grilling, after instigating a mammoth preconception corner. There's also the results of last week's prediction contest, which will decide which one of us must serve a forfeit!

Discussed on the podcast: 

Opening Segment: Reacting to the week's awards news: Oscar nominations and Golden Globe winners [2:20 - 21:45]

*Preconception Corner*

Reviews of: 

• "Gangster Squad"
• "Midnight Son"
• "Safety Not Guaranteed"

[26:50 - 49:50]

Closing Segment: Our take on Tom Hooper's awards hope "Les Miserables," and our favourite musicals of all-time  [49:55 - 1:11:50]

*Shag, Marry or Kill?*
*The Watson Factor*
*The Poupaud Range*

Ends with bonus forfeit from last week's competition: Who has to watch what? 

Intro Music: New theme music!
Outro Music: Lulu James, "Stuck"

In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 29

EPISODE 29: Long Day's Journey Into Middle Earth

[1:25:24]

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It's Episode 29 of In the Mood for Podcast, a British-based film podcast hosted by Calum Reed of Ultimate Addict and Pete Sheppard of In the Mood for Blog. This week we give our reaction to the Golden Globe and SAG nominations, assessing the races as they stand. We find our patience severely tested by Peter Jackson's epic first installment of the Hobbit Trilogy, the first of which, "An Unexpected Journey," fails to be a tale of the unexpected. We catch up with the animated "Rise of the Guardians," but Santa and the Tooth Fairy may not make the ideal dream team for one of us. And while Kristin Scott-Thomas may find herself the only performer in "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" without a nomination this week, she may at least take consolation in the fact that she can still rock a designer gown. She takes on the luscious Ludivine Sagnier in trashy french flick "Love Crime" ...

Discussed on the podcast: 

Opening Segment: Reacting to the Golden Globe and Screen Actors’ Guild nominations and assessing how that affects the Oscar race  [3:15 - 24:00]

*Preconception Corner*

Reviews of: 

• "The Hobbit"
• "Rise of the Guardians"
• "Love Crime"
• "Babette's Feast" (25th anniversary re-release)
• "Baraka"

[27:35 - 1:05:45]

Closing Segment: Dishing the dirt on 2012 releases we’ve been catching up with: "A Royal Affair"; "Caesar Must Die"; "The Deep Blue Sea"; "The Giant Mechanical Man"; "Vamps"; "Bye Bye Blondie"  [1:05:50 - 1:20:10]

*Shag, Marry or Kill?*[Audio difficulties meant that *The Watson Factor* and *The Poupaud Range* failed to record this week -- for interested parties, 1.0 and 1.0.]

Intro Music: New theme music!
Outro Music: Sigur Ros, Hoppipolla

In the Mood for Podcast: Episode 28

EPISODE 28: Masculine/Feminine

[1:19:53]

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It's Episode 28 of In the Mood for Podcast, a British-based film podcast hosted by Calum Reed of Ultimate Addict and Pete Sheppard of In the Mood for Blog. Awards dominate this week with discussion of the National Board of Review, LA film critics, and Boston film critics prizes, and predicting the Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild nominations. We talk about documentaries "The House I Live In" and "Knuckleball," before finally getting around to arthouse favourite "Tabu." And in straddling major extremes of masculinity, Martin McDonagh's male-dominated "Seven Pscyhopaths" faces off against our second Miley Cyrus film of the year, "So Undercover." The Miley vehicle brings giggles and shame to an otherwise level-headed episode, but we brought it on ourselves...

Discussed on the podcast: 

Opening Segment: Discussing the winners from the National Board of Review, LA film critics' association, and Boston Society of Film Critics'. [2:35 - 14:40]

*Preconception Corner*

Reviews of: 

• "Seven Psychopaths"
• "Tabu"
• "The House I Live In"
• "Knuckleball"
• "So Undercover"

[18:20 - 55:35]

Closing Segment: Predicting the Golden Globe nominations, and the Screen Actors' Guild nominations [55:40 - 1:12:10]

*Shag, Marry or Kill?*
*The Watson Factor*
*The Poupaud Range*

Intro Music: New theme music!
Outro Music: Sky Ferreira, "Everything Is Embarrassing"

The Women of 1975: Faye Dunaway

Faye Dunaway in “Three Days of the Condor”

Grade: **

The inimitably glamorous Faye Dunaway was in the peak of her career in the mid 1970s, having just received a second Oscar nomination for Roman Polanski’s “Chinatown,” and thus awards attention for a glorified Supporting role in commercial and critical success “Three Days of the Condor,” isn’t all that surprising. In marrying a Hitchcockian narrative with the world of paranoid espionage, Sidney Lumet’s Cold War thriller heavily relies upon an at-sea Robert Redford to inject dynamism as recompense for limply-constructed plotting. Dubbed the ‘condor’, neither he nor his choice of prey, the fitfully meek Faye Dunaway, express a lasting sense of burden from having been thrust into a dangerous situation together, exhibiting no real chemistry or dramatic impetus as a pairing.

Dunaway’s artsy Kathy is underwritten, the actress sidelined by the blandness of the script, and the confusion of just what her character is supposed to represent. Is she simply a responsible citizen compelled by love, or does she fit into the political concerns of the narrative? Honestly, I’ve no idea, and judging by the way that Dunaway approaches this performance; introspectively retreating while pondering the dearth of interest going on around her, hardly helps you to consider Kathy’s position. I suppose there’s a mild pendulous quality to the way that she hangs onto an arc, but moments of clarity, however embedded in Dunaway’s consciousness, fail to reveal themselves.

What makes 1975’s slate of actresses so atypical is that it doesn’t contain a movie star performance, Dunaway’s recognition by the Golden Globes (who else, right?) rendering her the closest member of A-list royalty to breach this category’s shortlist, but unable to convince the Academy that she was worthy of nomination number three. Rest assured that they got this one right.

Accolades: Golden Globe Nomination (Best Actress in a Leading Role, Drama)

Golden Globe (Motion Picture) Winners

Best Picture (Drama): "The Descendants"

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical): "The Artist"

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Best Actor (Drama): George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical): Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Best Actress (Drama): Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical): Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Best Screenplay: "Midnight in Paris"

Best Original Score: "The Artist"

Best Original Song: "W.E."

Best Foreign Language Film: "A Separation"

Best Animated Feature: "The Adventures of Tintin"

Who'd Be in a Comedy or a Musical?

If “Bridesmaids” miraculously manages to get itself into Oscar’s Best Picture lineup this year, it would be the anomaly of all anomalies – a broad, crass, raunchy, female-dominated film breaking the mould. Regardless of whether this happens or not, there’ll always be the nagging issue of Oscar’s general attitude towards comedy, which tends to get forgotten about when it comes to year-end awards. The implication that comedy/”light” performances are lesser fare than dramatic ones is both inaccurate and offensive, but it’s often the preconception adopted by middlebrow filmgoers.

Whatever you think about the Golden Globes, the Hollywood Foreign Press have always used their ceremony to help celebrate comedy, despite that often leading to even more guffaw at their nominations than in their drama categories. Predictably, those singled out in this section are far less likely to have success with SAG and AMPAS, and the fairly grim reality is that lively, funny, and layered performances like Kristen Wiig’s this year won’t make it past this particular precursor hurdle.

In the past ten years, the Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical category has seen fourteen nominations translate to Academy Award notices.

 

• Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”

• Nicole Kidman, “Moulin Rouge”

• Renee Zellweger, “Chicago”

• Diane Keaton, “Something’s Gotta Give”

• Annette Bening, “Being Julia”

• Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

• Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

• Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”

• Keira Knightley, “Pride and Prejudice”

• Meryl Streep, ”The Devil Wears Prada”

• Marion Cotillard, “La Vie En Rose”

• Ellen Page, “Juno”

• Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”

• Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”

*Catherine Zeta Jones received a Golden Globe nomination for “Chicago”, but a Supporting nomination with Oscar.

This is a 28% transfer to Oscar, which is relatively decent, but not considering that Witherspoon’s, Knightley’s, and Cotillard’s are arguably dramatic performances masquerading as musical or comedic ones.

The situation looks comparatively positive for women when you look at the men. In the past ten seasons only five men nominated in the Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical category have been nominated for the Best Actor Oscar.

• Nicholas Cage, “Adaptation”

• Bill Murray, “Lost In Translation”

• Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

• Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”

• Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

Just a meager 10% transfer from Globes to Oscar, folks. And even that’s with Foxx and Phoenix producing essentially dramatic performances in films about musicians.

There are literally too many Globe-nominated comedic performances by Actresses to list here, but I’ve trawled through the history and found some great Best Actor in a comedy nominees from days-gone-by to single out as major Oscar snubs.

Donald Sutherland in “M*A*S*H”

Lost out to: Melvyn Douglas, “I Never Sang For My Father,” James Earl Jones, “The Great White Hope,” Jack Nicholson, “Five Easy Pieces,” Ryan O’Neal, “Love Story,” George C. Scott, “Patton”

Billy Crystal in “When Harry Met Sally”

Lost out to: Kenneth Branagh, “Henry V”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “My Left Foot”; Tom Cruise, “Born on the Fourth of July”; Morgan Freeman, “Driving Miss Daisy”; Robin Williams, “Dead Poets Society”

Tim Robbins in “The Player”

Lost out to: Robert Downey Jr, “Chaplin”; Clint Eastwood, “Unforgiven”; Al Pacino, “Scent of a Woman”; Stephen Rea, “The Crying Game”; Denzel Washington, “Malcolm X”

Terence Stamp in “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert”

Lost out to: Tom Hanks, “Forrest Gump”; Morgan Freeman, “The Shawshank Redemption”; Nigel Hawthorne, “The Madness of King George”; Paul Newman, “Nobody’s Fool”; John Travolta, “Pulp Fiction”

Paul Giamatti in “Sideways"

Lost out to: Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda”; Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland”; Leonardo Di Caprio, “The Aviator”; Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”; Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

All of this is especially worrying given that this year has seen one of the greatest lineups in this category in recent memory; Jean Dujardin, Brendan Gleeson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ryan Gosling, and Owen Wilson all giving smart comedic(ish) performances. The only one in with a legitimate chance (and a great one at that) of an Oscar nomination is Dujardin, which will be the first crossover nomination of the decade, and a mightily well-deserved one.

It’s a bit much to ask for Oscar to dramatically change its dirty habits, but could they at least appreciate our funnymen a little more?

Golden Globe: Nominations and Pre-Announcement Predictions

Picture (Drama):

• “The Descendants”

• “The Help”

• “Hugo”

• “The Ides of March"
• “Moneyball"
• “War Horse”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: As will become apparent in the course of this post, I have a feeling that David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method" could do well here, given the excellent reviews and recent warm appraisal of his work by the HFPA. After the SAG shut-out, this will be a particularly big test for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," which should be re-titled "Extremely Late and Incredibly Cheeky." Spielberg and "War Horse" don't feel like potential winners of anything anymore, but even if it misses the Academy could still resurrect it, given the obvious advantage of its tearjerking elements.

Picture (Comedy/Musical):

• “50/50”
• “The Artist”

• “Bridesmaids”

• “Carnage”
• “Midnight in Paris”

• “My Week with Marilyn"

Prediction Score: 3/5

Prediction summary: An unusually strong category this year (especially compared to last!) to the extent where I'm only comfortable with the first three picks. After that, "We Bought a Zoo" and "Young Adult" could be outmuscled by the well-reviewed "50/50," or the A-list laden "Carnage." Or else be brushed aside by Simon Curtis' featherweight Marilyn Monroe movie? 

Director:

• Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
• George Clooney, "The Ides of March"
• Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: I toyed with including David Cronenberg but I didn't want to go that crazy with the film. Refn is getting many notices with critics, and I reckon the Globes will be much kinder to "Drive" than the SAGs were or the Oscars likely will be. A host of names could pop up here, like Woody Allen, Stephen Daldry, or Tate Taylor.

Leading Actress (Drama):

• Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
• Viola Davis, “The Help”

• Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

• Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: A Glenn Close snub doesn't seem like the smartest thing in the world to predict after her SAG nomination, but this is a hipper kind of branch. Felicity Jones appears to be more in favour than Elizabeth Olsen, and I've been convinced from the beginning of the season that somebody would give Keira Knightley something given the sheer ferocity of the performance. The other options are Kirsten Dunst and Rooney Mara.

Leading Actor (Drama):

• George Clooney, “The Descendants”

• Leonardo Di Caprio, “J. Edgar”

• Michael Fassbender, “Shame”

• Ryan Gosling, “The Ides of March”

• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Prediction score: 4/5

Prediction summary: When all is said and done, the Globes are about stars. This is one of the starriest actor lineups they can muster this year.

Leading Actress (Comedy/Musical):

• Jodie Foster, "Carnage”

• Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”

• Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

• Kate Winslet, “Carnage”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: Scarlett Johansson was their sweetheart in '03, '04, and '05 (remember "A Love Song for Bobby Long" anyone?) but her spot could easily go to Jodie Foster in a "Carnage" double-dip, Berenice Bejo in a category switchup, or perennial Globe favourites Julia Roberts and Cameron Diaz, who worked this year, which is usually good enough.

Leading Actor (Comedy/Musical):

• Brendan Gleeson, "The Guard"

• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

• Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"
• Ryan Gosling, "Crazy Stupid Love"
• Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"


Prediction score: 2/5

Prediction summary: My logic: predict Johnny Depp and then if he's nominated you'll at least be happy that you got it right. Unless of course he manages to be included for his performance in the latest "Pirates of the Caribbean" instalment, in which case you can just kill me. Ryan Gosling could be nominated twice if they liked those abs in "Crazy Stupid Love"; Christoph Waltz or John C. Reilly (the Globes like him!) might find themselves here if the "Carnage" love runs free. I don't even want to contemplate a Tom Hanks nomination.

Supporting Actress:

• Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
• Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

• Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"

• Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

• Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: Will this be where Carey Mulligan lands a major nomination? She's certainly a huge star profile right now. Melissa McCarthy is the biggest lock here after that SAG inclusion, but someone else could well be ousted to make room for Sandra Bullock. Winning Globe, SAG, and Oscar two years ago isn't enough for these people. They want to canonise their Bullock at every opportunity.

Supporting Actor:

• Albert Brooks, “Drive”

• Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”

• Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

• Viggo Mortensen, “A Dangerous Method”

• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: Sacha Baron Cohen is well-liked, and let's face it: this category is batshit crazy. Beyond Branagh, Plummer, and (surely) Brooks, there's no telling where the Academy is going to go. I definitely don't see a Nick Nolte nomination happening here, so it's gonna differ from the SAG whatever happens.

Screenplay:

• "The Artist"

• "The Descendants"

• "The Ides of March"

• "Midnight in Paris"

• "Moneyball"

Animated Feature:

• "The Adventures of Tintin"
• "Arthur Christmas"
• "Cars 2"

• "Puss In Boots"

• "Rango"

Foreign Language Film:

• "The Flowers of War" (China)

• "In the Land of Blood and Honey" (USA)

• "The Kid with a Bike" (Belgium)

• "A Separation" (Iran)

• "The Skin I Live In" (Spain)

Original Score:

• Ludovic Bource, "The Artist"

• Abel Korzeniowski, "W.E."

• Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

• Howard Shore, "Hugo"

• John Williams, "War Horse"


Original Song:

• 'Hello Hello', "Gnomeo and Juliet"

• 'The Keeper', "Machine Gun Preacher"

• 'Lay Your Head Down', "Albert Nobbs"

• 'The Living Proof', "The Help"

• 'Masterpiece', "W.E." (Madonna!)

Golden Globe Nominations, 2010, Plus Reaction

Earlier today, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced that Tom Hooper's "The King's Speech" leads the Golden Globe nominations for 2010. Here is the full list of Motion Picture nominees:-

Best Motion Picture, Drama

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Best Director - Motion Picture

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

David Fincher, The Social Network

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

This a little blow for 127 Hours, but it still appears as if it will make Oscar's ten and probably not win any of its nominations. Certainly a boost for The Fighter in any case, although the HFPA have a history of loving films that didn't float Oscar's boat (A History of Violence, Match Point, Revolutionary Road.)

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Alice in Wonderland

Burlesque

The Kids Are All Right

Red

The Tourist

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland

Johnny Depp, The Tourist

Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs

Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

The less said about these categories, the better.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

This list packs a punch, but it's very young and starlet-oriented, regardless of the quality of the performances. Lest we forget when SAG nominated Gosling and Emile Hirsch in 2007, only for Oscar to turn around and snub them for veterans Johnny Depp and Tommy Lee Jones. Firth and Franco are safe, but of the others I'd expect at least one to be turfed out for Jeff Bridges or Robert Duvall. At least one.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

A big boost to Halle Berry, whose film comes out soon and who could benefit from good timing if the reaction to her performance is positive enough. Williams and Blue Valentine also needed this, though I'm still not convinced she can mount a big enough challenge. Lesley Manville will have to wait for SAG, but the ground is shaky.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

Angelina Jolie, The Tourist

Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Emma Stone, Easy A

All I have to say is that Emma Stone deserves to win.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

I hope that Douglas doesn't carry a sentimental vote through the whole of Awards Season. Justin Timberlake's campaign looks all but dead in the water.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Weaver, Carter, Leo, and Adams all look strong, but I'd expect Kunis not to make much of a splash beyond here. Will Amy Adams go in as favourite since she's become renowned as an excellent Supporting Actress, and she's the nicest person on the planet?

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

127 Hours

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Inception

Best Original Song

“You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me,” Burlesque

“Bound to you,” Burlesque

“Coming Home”, Country Strong

“I See The Light,” by Alan Menken, Tangled

“There’s a Place For Us,” Voyage of the Dawn Treader

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech

Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland

A.R. Rahmin, 127 Hours

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network

Hans Zimmer, Inception

Best Animated Feature Film

Despicable Me

How to Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

Tangled

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful (Spain/Mexico)

The Concert (France)

The Edge (Russia)

I Am Love (Italy)

In a Better World (Denmark)

Golden Globe Reaction

The first time I was able to watch the Globes live, and it was a great night. Loving a lot of the winners, the fashion was great (Kyra Sedgwick, Frieda Pinto, Laura Linney, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Anne Hathaway), and the speeches were even better. Here are the winners and my reaction:-

Best Picture, Drama: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millonaire

Reaction: Not since Return of the King in 2003 (a flimsy filmic year in itself) has a flick seemed so nailed on for Best Picture this early on. Unless something drastic happens (i.e. the heavens cave in, Dev Patel murders somebody, or there's major Bush-style vote-rigging) then Slumdog is on its way to huge success -- both in terms of awardage and box-office. Its wins for Screenplay and Score highlight that it probably won by a landslide here, if only since it managed to deprive Clint Eastwood of a Globe for the first time in god knows how long.

Best Picture, Comedy Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy: Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Best Actress, Musical/Comedy: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Reaction: Yeeehaa! Two of my favourite performances this year rewarded. Colin and Sally dearly deserve these Globes and gave honest (if a little profound) speeches that showed both were overjoyed. Although Colin was understandably a little more surprised at the win. Vicky Cristina Barcelona probably edged the others since it is a Woody Allen film after all. I don't love the film but it's a lot better than anything else he's done lately, excepting Match Point.

Best Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Reaction: The Globes were perhaps more unashamedly media-orientated than ever last night, and these wins probably demonstrate that most, but I'm pretty sure there aren't an army of people complaining at Rourke and Ledger getting their due. It seems pretty apparent that Ledger's going all the way to Oscar; completely deserving (if a Leading performance in my book) and rather perverse in the sense that the role is so edgy, sinister, and downright scary that his clips feel almost like an anti-sentiment. Rourke, on the other hand, needed this Globe to resurrect a horn-locked battle with Sean Penn that was threatening to turn into a milk-stained whitewash. Still, I'm doubtful about whether Rourke can claim the Actor's vote given his dodgy history, and the fact that he isn't in a biopic.

Best Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader

Reaction: Well doesn't this blow everything wide open? I know this is the Hollywood Foreign Press, not the academy, but the level of support for Kate Winslet in winning both of her categories suggests that these performances are held in extremely high regard. I was contemplating even a double-snub for Winslet just a couple of weeks ago. Now, could it be that she becomes the only person to win two Acting Oscars in the same night? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's happened before.

If anything, it's a major sanctioning of Winslet as Supporting in The Reader, which I'd argue makes it very unlikely that she'll split many votes category-wise. Hathaway/Hawkins/Jolie/Streep/Winslet looks a good bet for Oscar at the moment, despite Melissa Leo's SAG nom. Whoever wins the SAG will probably be favourite for the Golden Guy, but if it isn't Winslet then maybe anyone's got a shot?

Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
Best Animated Feature: WALL·E
Best Original Song: Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler

Reaction: Probably the easiest ones to predict. Wall-E and Bruce Springsteen cannot be derailed. Waltz With Bashir will most likely make the Oscar shortlist (although they're notorious for snubbing critical faves lately) but has it got enough overall appeal to win? I'm dubious.