2008 Oscar Preview & Predictions: The Big Six

Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

What Should Have Been Nominated? Where to start? I'll be talking a bit about the Academy's choice of these five pictures when I start my review of 2008 next week. But for now, let's just say that I can think of at least ten films better than Milk, my favourite in the category. Chief among them is Wall-E, which I'm sure wasn't far away, and The Dark Knight's omission from this lineup is hard to bear.

What Deserves To Win? I've cooled on all of these films but Milk is very well-made and the only one that struck a resonant chord with me. It's standard in many ways but always interesting and certainly knows itself more than these other pictures.

What Will Win? You can read theories about Benjamin Button being the "true Oscar picture", or Harvey Weinstein going all-out for his holocaust baby, but this is Slumdog's year. The media undoubtedly had a lot to do with the film's buzz and making it seem like serious fare, but since most of Hollywood seem to love it the awards press can't shoulder all of the blame. Slumdog Millionaire will win because it's genuinely cherished -- at least for now.

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Who Should Have Been Nominated? Anyone a bit more interesting. Andrew Stanton, Christopher Nolan (and I'm not even the biggest fan of his direction), and Darren Aronofsky are the major players who were left in the lurch.

Who Deserves To Win? Gus Van Sant, for the reason that the others either had relatively little to do (Daldry & Howard), or were overbearing in visual elaboration of painfully simple stories (Boyle & Fincher).

Who Will Win? Danny Boyle.

Actor in a Leading Role

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves to Win? This is one of the best categories actually, although the only ones I'll admit to loving are Penn and Rourke. They're the frontrunners so at least there's some justice in the world. I can't decide between them just yet.

Who Will Win? I've been going back and forth on this so it's time to make a decision. Penn's advantages are that he has the lion's share of critics awards (which obviously doesn't matter much, just ask Sally Hawkins), the biopic character, the straight man playing gay card, the fact that he dies, the Best Picture nominee, and the SAG. Rourke's plus points: he has the media, the comeback story, the fact he has considerably less Actors to help him in the film, the Globe and BAFTA wins, and that Sean has already won an Oscar whereas it would be a great "story" if he were to crown a troubled career with a golden guy.

I always find that predicting from the heart is a bad idea. I want Mickey Rourke to win this, because he's bound to make a great speech and Sean Penn really doesn't need another Oscar. But something tells me that the biopic will win out again, as no other likely acting winners on the night will have played real-life people, and so I'm predicting that Sean Penn will win this particular tussle.

Actress in a Leading Role

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? By a country mile it's Anne Hathaway, who has so much more to do than the other four women, and generally succeeds.

Who Will Win? I'm having jitters about Winslet's chances, what with the Meryl SAG win and the fact that nobody really loves Kate's performance. But the other four women have had similarly troubled paths, and you've surely got to think that with just the one nomination (for a performance undefeated at Globe, BAFTA, and SAG) Kate Winslet has enough supporters to win this one with ease.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jnr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? I might be being picky but I reckon both Hoffman and Ledger are leading in their respective films. But I'm willing to admit that these aren't Jamie Foxx in Collateral-style examples of category fraud and so I'll whole-heartedly commit to saying that Ledger's performance is fantastic, and way worthier than anyone else included here.

Who Will Win? There really haven't been many posthumous nominations/wins, you know? His win seems a given, which in turn is generating talk that Academy members might tick another name instead, believing that their vote won't matter. This seems a very wayward theory to me, and if Heath's name isn't called out and received to a lengthy standing applause, I'll be shocked.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Who Should Have Been Nominated? TBA. My personal awards (The Addicts) start next week.

Who Deserves To Win? Again, I consider Amy Adams to be a lead in Doubt; if only for her part in the Frosty the Snowman office meeting. Hers is my favourite performance of these five because she's the principle force, introspectively coaxing us from one side of the fence to the other, and she's devastatingly effective as a naive, torn, inexperienced young woman frightened of allegiance and equally wary of confrontation. Beyond that, I like Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei very much.

Who Will Win? I think this is still a five-way race. Taraji P. Henson represents Benjamin Button's only realistic chance at a major award (rather like Swinton in Michael Clayton), Davis has the baitiest role in an incredibly baity film, Marisa Tomei won lots of critics stuff and her film has just the two nominations, of which its fans could easily tick both boxes on their ballots. Penelope Cruz has the only legitimate precursor in BAFTA (Winslet's Reader performance won both Globe and SAG in this category) and has been up there in the betting for a while, and Amy Adams has by far the biggest role (co-lead, if you ask me) in her film and is the kind of American starlet (like Tomei back in '92) that wins for a Supporting award.

I'm actually going to go for Marisa Tomei, because it's been sixteen years since she won, and she may mop up votes from the people who *just* preferred Penn's performance to Rourke's.

Down To 65 Seconds

Peter Gabriel's decision to pull out of the Oscars certainly gets my backing. Artists should not be forced to compromise for anything or anyone. It's like Radio Edits -- they're very rarely (if ever) better than the original cut. But if they're cutting down on the song performances then what on earth are they going to fill the time with?

We already know that there's going to be a tribute to comedy, which is pretty ironic given that the Academy have always treated comic films with an err of inferiority. Here are some suggestions as to how else they can fill the void:-

• Lengthen everyone's clips to 30 seconds, and add brief clips for the tech categories.
  
• Allow the winners at least 90 seconds to give their speech.
• Give Hugh Jackman a musical number to sing, and preferably in a see-through top? ;-)
• Let Meryl Streep do an improptu 10-minute stand-up
• Show clips of Academy members exiting screenings, reacting to screenings, or recounting their favourite moments in cinema of the year. There's few things more generous of Actors than expressing their passion for film and disclosing their personal faves in the way we cinephiles do.

Oscar Nominations & Reaction

The Oscar Nominations have been announced and they are..... worse than I expected. No Dark Knight or Wall-E. The Academy fell for the December pictures hook, line and sinker. No Sally Hawkins, as I feared. Kate Winslet nominated in the right category but that all but kills any possibility for a surprise on Oscar night. Argh!

My overall prediction score was 66/97 (67%). The nominations are:-

Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Prediction Score: 4/5, but I'm pleased.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Prediction Score: 4/5 - Where the hell did Michael Shannon come from?

Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

Prediction Score: 3/5 - Winslet for the wrong film. Sally.. *sob*

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Prediction Score: 4/5 - For a moment I didn't realise who was snubbed.

Best animated feature film of the year

* “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

Prediction Score: 2/3 - Looks like I'm gonna have to see Bolt.

Achievement in art direction

* “Changeling” (Universal), Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando
* “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Art Direction: Michael Carlin, Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
* “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Prediction Score: 3/5

Achievement in cinematography

* “Changeling” (Universal), Tom Stern
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle

Prediction Score: 2/5

Achievement in costume design

* “Australia” (20th Century Fox), Catherine Martin
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Jacqueline West
* “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Michael O’Connor
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Glicker
* “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Albert Wolsky

Prediction Score: 3/5

Achievement in directing

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

Prediction Score: 4/5

Best documentary feature

* “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
* “Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
* “The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
* “Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
* “Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Prediction Score: 2/5

Best documentary short subject

* “The Conscience of Nhem En” A Farallon Films Production, Steven Okazaki
* “The Final Inch” A Vermilion Films Production, Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant
* “Smile Pinki” A Principe Production, Megan Mylan
* “The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306” A Rock Paper Scissors Production, Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lee Smith
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Elliot Graham
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Chris Dickens

Prediction Score: 4/5

Best foreign language film of the year

* “The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
* “The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
* “Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
* “Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
* “Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

Prediction Score: 4/5

Achievement in makeup

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Greg Cannom
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
* “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” (Universal), Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Prediction Score: 2/3

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.),Alexandre Desplat
* “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage), James Newton Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Elfman
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Thomas Newman

Prediction Score: 3/5

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

* “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
* “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
* “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman andMaya Arulpragasam

Prediction Score: 3/3 - Where the hell is The Wrestler?

Best motion picture of the year

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production,Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
* “Milk” (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production,Christian Colson, Producer

Prediction Score: 3/5. Meh.

Best animated short film

* “La Maison en Petits Cubes” A Robot Communications Production, Kunio Kato
* “Lavatory - Lovestory” A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production, Konstantin Bronzit
* “Oktapodi” (Talantis Films) A Gobelins, L’école de l’image Production, Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
* “Presto” (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production, Doug Sweetland
* “This Way Up”, A Nexus Production, Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film

* “Auf der Strecke (On the Line)” (Hamburg Shortfilmagency), An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production, Reto Caffi
* “Manon on the Asphalt” (La Luna Productions), A La Luna Production, Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
* “New Boy” (Network Ireland Television), A Zanzibar Films Production, Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
* “The Pig” An M & M Production, Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
* “Spielzeugland (Toyland)” A Mephisto Film Production, Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing

* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Richard King
* “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Tom Sayers
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
* “Wanted” (Universal),Wylie Stateman

Prediction Score: 3/5 - Wanted. Interesting...

Achievement in sound mixing

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney),Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
* “Wanted” (Universal), Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Prediction Score: 3/5

Achievement in visual effects

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
* “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Prediction Score: 3/3

Adapted screenplay

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
* “Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Prediction Score: 5/5

Original screenplay

* “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
* “Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
* “In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Prediction Score: 2/5

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 3: The Big Six

Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: Milk

Three of the biggest precursor bodies for this category, the PGA, DGA and ACE, all went for Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog, and Milk. So naturally I'm going against that.

Call me crazy but I think Wall-E may have managed to surpass the Animated Feature tag this year. The Incredibles came pretty close in 2004, but it didn't have the support that Wall-E has, or the critics awards that mark it as a viable candidate.

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Alternate: Andrew Stanton - Wall-E

The favourite five. I may be brave enough to pick the lil' robot but I daren't go for Stanton. Even though he totally deserves it.

Actress in a Leading Role

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Even after the Globe win I'm terrified that Sally Hawkins is going to lose out here. Missing SAG and BFCA is really bad, but this category has been pretty competitive and still doesn't have a frontrunner. Well, maybe Winslet, but if she wins in Supporting for The Reader then who knows, right? Still, a Winslet/Reader inclusion here is very possible and would certainly kill off the competition. Melissa Leo will get a lot of votes but enough? We'll see.

Actor in a Leading Role

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Alternate: Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Brad Pitt feels even more of a "movie star" now than he did a decade ago, and so even with Globe and SAG it isn't a done deal. It might not matter but I think an Eastwood inclusion here is likely and if it's tight I'd always go with the veteran performers in this category. Think of the Emile Hirsch/Ryan Gosling snubs last year. I know Brad is in his forties now but the other five are damn OLD.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Alternate: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

There seems to be a general indifference towards Amy Adams' performance in Doubt, but she got the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, and this is the acting category most likely to feature two performers from the same film. I'd say that she's the most shakiest though, since Marisa Tomei's late critics surge (coupled with good feeling for the film) makes her seem pretty much in.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jnr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky

This looks dead-on to me. Unless Dev Patel splits his votes between lead and supporting and ends up with nothing. But for that to happen would take somebody else to emerge from a sparse, precursor-deprived pack of men, headed (I suspect) by the volatile Eddy Marsan.

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 2: Screenplays, Animated etc.

Original Screenplay

Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Alternate: The Visitor

If we're going on popularity of the films this seems like the five. Happy Go Lucky definitely has fans but isn't strong enough to predict above others that missed a WGA nomination.

Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Revolutionary Road

I'm really confident about these five since the weakest one of these, The Reader, seems to be trundling along nicely and its major competition, Revolutionary Road, doesn't. The Dark Knight could make it but I maybe think this is the only place where it can't shrug off comic book bias.

Animated Feature

Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir

Alternate: Bolt

Because of how people view animated films I think that Waltz With Bashir is in a bit of a shaky position. It does have an excellent critical showing though, so I'll leave it. Interestingly, I think if it isn't nominated here it's definitely going to win the Foreign award, whereas if it's nominated for both it could lose out altogether.

Foreign Film

The Baader-Meinhof Complex - Germany
The Class - France
Everlasting Moments - Sweden
Revanche - Austria
Waltz With Bashir - Israel

Alternate: Canada - Necessities of Life

I'd say Israel and Austria are strongest, and they're a fan of the Swedish director's work so that has to bode well for his entry. France have an unprecedented history with this category so I'm picking them, even though the film isn't very traditional. As for the final spot, The Baader Meinhof Complex is harsh -- both visually and thematically -- but it's largely good, and I haven't a clue about the others.

Documentary Feature

Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
Man on Wire
Pray the Devil Back to Hell
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

Alternate: Encounters at the End of the World

Well Man on Wire is the only lock, but Trouble the Water is about Hurricane Katrina, Standard Operating Procedure is about the mistreatment of suspected terrorists (appropriate since the new president wants to get rid of the Guantanamo Bay facility), Blessed is about the holocaust, and Pray the Devil is about Liberian peace with added feminist oomph. Major, major bait at play here.

The legendary Werner Herzog is my alternate but his doc is much less Oscary than most of the shortlist.

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 1: Techs & Music

Alright, here we go. I haven't really been keeping up with the techs during awards season so I've had to do same major research. Still, you can do research until you're blue in the face. You never really know.

Here are my picks:-

Art Direction

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Reader

It seems wrong to include something that was shut out of the Art Directors' guild nominations, however much I want to believe that the gorgeous work in Australia will grab one of these spots. Slumdog was at its ultimate peak when ballots went out and so I expect it to pick up tech nominations like this one. The Reader seems like a rather traditional and obvious pick for this category but it didn't get ADG either so I'm not gonna include it.

Costume Design

Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Australia

Similarly, these all featured in the Costume Designers Guild nominations. Changeling's make up is one of the few things I admired about it. The Duchess draws a lot of attention to its costumes, as one would expect of a British costume drama. All five of these are either rich, clean, or colourful. Australia is all three, but it didn't get the CDG, so hmph.

Make Up

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Tropic Thunder

Alternate: Synechdoche, New York

Of the seven contenders for this award you'd have to say Benjamin Button is the obvious pick for the nomination and win, given the major age gimmick. The Reader also has this, but isn't particularly special, and there isn't a great deal of old Kate in the film. Hellboy is a definite option but I fancy that it might be ousted in the fantasy stakes by Heath's joker-face in The Dark Knight. And I've gone for Tropic Thunder in the final spot, because of the nominations for Click and Norbit in recent years. I'm not necessarily saying that the makeup department has a habit of nominating bad films, I'm referring to the fat-suit pattern, which could mean Tom Cruise's cameo is popular with them. I haven't seen much evidence of Synechdoche, but I fancy that of all the shortlisted films this one will be the least watched, though I do have it as an alternate.

Cinematography

Australia
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sometimes the cinematographers get wacky and fun. Last year was a boring, uniform example of people agreeing all awards season, but apart from The Dark Knight and the revered Slumdog nothing seems particularly assured this year. I'd expect Roger Deakins to make it for at least one of his two efforts for The Reader (shared with Chris Menges) and Revolutionary Road, and I fancy the latter is a bit more flash. I've gone for Australia, because it is so in-your-face (rather like Phantom of the Opera and The Illusionist were) that it's sure to have fans -- even if support for the film itself is distinctly lacking. Defiance is here because Edward Zwick films tend to pick up something somewhere, and although this film doesn't have the possibility of an Acting nomination as Blood Diamond and The Last Samurai did, it's a recent release that made NBR.

Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Editing historically matches Picture, which would seem to be backed up this year by the fact that the ACE noms match the PGA/DGA/Favourite Five for the main award. But as I'm not going for that five, I'm sticking Defiance in there (co-incidentally in an act of defiance) for similar reasons to the Cinematography prediction.

Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Since The Dark Knight appears to have transcended the label of summer blockbuster, Iron Man fills that void pretty well, especially since it got similarly impressive reviews. It also has better effects, if you ask me. But anyway yeah... there's a 15-film shortlist but these three look good.

Sound Mixing

The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

A mixture of war/action and uplifting sentiment.

Sound Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

The loudest, plus Wall-E. Animated films do well here.

Original Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Alternate: Milk

John Williams is god to them. The rest are great.

Original Song

Bolt - "I Thought I Lost You"
Slumdog Millionaire - "Jaiho"
Slumdog Millionaire - "O Saya
"Wall-E - "Down to Earth
"The Wrestler - "The Wrestler"

Alternate: Gran Torino - "Gran Torino"

The usual suspects plus another bone for the dog.

A Well Earned Break (Link)

As you'll have been able to tell my posting has been few-and-far-between since the festive period began. Most of this involved heavy consumption of Stella Artois (will my stomach ever be the same? :'( ) and when the New Year began I was forced to confront the dreaded reality of Uni assignments. I'm currently wrestling (although 'cuddling' seems a more apt description) with a 2,500-word write-up on the treatment of life and death in animation. It's mainly Disney, with a little bit of Burton thrown in there for the macabre segment. Needless to say, this is taking up a lot of my time at the moment, so for the next week or so things are gonna stay relatively vacant -- apart from Golden Globe predictions and reaction of course!

I never got around to writing a review of Changeling, and likely won't. After seeing Courtney Hunt's Frozen River online this week I feel more compelled to write about its squandering of social knowledge in greater depth. As I've said though, it ain't gonna happen for at least a week. I've also seen Che: Part One, Vicky Cristina Barcelona (online again - don't judge), Man on Wire, and The Reader, which is probably my favourite of all those mentioned in this paragraph, though it does have its fair share of problems. I was actually really surprised to find that the screening of it I went to was packed. I could tell a good few liked it, too.

Anyway, let me link you to a few entertaining pieces, if you haven't seen them already...

And the Winner is..: New Oscar predictions. Gran Torino in 6th for Best Picture?

Awards Daily: All the details on the guilds this week (DGA announce later today). Boy, didn't The Dark Knight need that PGA nom? Where's the Wall-E love, people? I hear Stanton is ineligible so it looks like it's gonna have to cling on to critical and audience popularity if it's gonna make it.

BBC: The Times' writer James Christopher puts forward the notion of BANNING the biopic. Imagine if that happened. Would we get more original films creeping into AMPAS territory, or an even bigger influx of novel adaptations in the December crowd? An interesting thought. Oh and try to ignore the fact that he doesn't like Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich. It took me a while to get past it but I succeeded.

Goatdogblog: Top Ten Rentals/Revivals of 2008, and it includes Gone With the Wind. Adoration does not fulfill my feelings for this epic masterpiece.

Film Experience Blog: Ever fallen asleep at the cinema?

In Contention: The BAFTA Foreign Language nominations. Pretty standard. I'm happy for Waltz With Bashir and Baader-Meinhof (despite its problems). I'm cooling on the Scott-Thomas flick a lot.

Mainly Movies: Hitchcock is the new guest oeuvre! Why does everyone love Notorious by the way? I love Hitch but I wasn't fussed by that one at all.

Enjoy! Back to the grind!

Golden Globe Guesses

Firstly I wanna say how much I love the NYFCC for giving Sally Hawkins their best Actress award (apparently on only the second ballot as well, can you believe?), and secondly here are my predictions for tomorrow's Golden Globe nominations. It's mainly guesswork, though. Eeeeek! *Excitement*

Picture (Drama)

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Cadillac Records

In Bruges

Mamma Mia!

Sex and the City: The Movie

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher - The Curious Case...

Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant - Milk

Actor (Drama)

Leonardo Di Caprio - Revolutionary Road

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino

Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn - Milk

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona

George Clooney - Leatherheads

Ricky Gervais - Ghost Town

Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges

Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Actress (Drama)

Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case...

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Meryl Streep - Doubt

Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Actress (Comedy/Musical)

Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky

Sarah Jessica Parker - Sex and the City: The Movie

Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading

Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!

Renee Zelwegger - Leatherheads

Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin - Milk

Robert Downey Jnr - Tropic Thunder

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt

Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis - Doubt

Rosemarie DeWitt - Rachel Getting Married

Beyonce Knowles - Cadillac Records

Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Screenplay

Doubt

Happy-Go-Lucky

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Slumdog Millionaire

Animated Film

Kung Fu Panda

The Tale of Desperaux

Wall-E

Foreign Film

The Class (France)

Gomorrah (Italy)

I've Loved You So Long (France)

Let the Right One In (Sweden)

Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

I Heart the LAFCA

The LAFCA have announced and it's utterly stupendously fantabolously awesome...

Picture: “Wall-E”Runner-up: “The Dark Knight”
Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”Runner-up: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Elegy”Runner-up: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Screenplay: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”
Foreign-language film: “Still Life” Runner-up: “The Class”
Documentary: “Man on Wire” Runner-up: “Waltz With Bashir”
Animation: “Waltz With Bashir”
Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, “Still Life” Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Production design: Mark Friedberg, “Synecdoche, New York”Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, “The Dark Knight”
Music/score: A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire”Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
New Generation: Steve McQueen, “Hunger”

Not only have LA given the BEST picture of the year their "Best Picture" award, they've also awarded Sally Hawkins' performance in Happy-Go-Lucky, my favourite turn of 2008. It doesn't seem as if Hawkins is going away, although this by no means makes her a lock -- Vera Farmiga won this in 2005 and it isn't historically water-tight, but it's a major boost. The Oscar-bait isn't getting the critical acclaim in this category so far. Love the Waltz With Bashir win too, for a change. Wall-E is obviously winning Best Picture anyway, isn't it? I can dream....

This Sex Is On Fire...

It's about time. Finally, here is the trailer for headline-grabbing, Titanic re-uniting, major Oscar buzzing Revolutionary Road. One of the most famous romantic pairings captured on celluloid, Winslet and Di Caprio, return, and the chemistry is still RED HOT. Yummy-looking love scenes littered throughout it appears that instead of a sinking ship to contend with, restless suburbia is the thing getting this particular relationship down. I have to admit that this hardly seems a jolly time at the cinema, and it's a bit of a repetitive trailer all-in-all, but I suppose trailers don't win Oscars. Let's wait and see.