Predicting the Oscar Nominees

The Oscar race may technically last until the end of February, but nomination day pretty much signals the end to 90% of the suspense surrounding the eventual Oscar winners. Tomorrow is the biggie, and here are my (occasionally foolhardy) guesses as to who/what will make the cut:

Best Picture

"The Artist"

"The Descendants"

"The Help"

"Hugo"

"Moneyball"

"Midnight in Paris"

"War Horse"

Alternates (if there are ten): “The Tree of Life”; “The Ides of March”; “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

The untested new balloting system for Best Picture makes predicting a little more uncertain, but one would think that the passionate ‘best’ cries would see at least these seven films make it. I’m not buying that popular titles “Bridesmaids,” “Drive,” and “A Separation” are anything more than fringe-dwellers in this race, and I’m not ready to replace the dwindling “War Horse” with “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” The guild-surging David Fincher film, as well as being a remake, is far too pulpy a genre pic for Academy tastes. They rarely deviate from the norm when selecting Best Picture candidates, and I doubt that the number of nominees will be high enough to see it included ahead of safer,more traditional options.

Best Director

Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Alternates: Tate Taylor, "The Help"; David Fincher, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”; Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”

I’m chickening out of predicting Taylor for a nomination since it seems so absurd he’d be included ahead of major, major directors like Allen, Fincher, and Spielberg. Having said that, I think his film will prove more popular with the Academy than the films helmed by those other three men. Somehow, after all of these Oscar seasons, I haven’t yet given up on the unique quality of accomplishments being recognised on sheer merit alone, and therefore I think that Terrence Malick will score a lone director nod for the artistry of his divisive “The Tree of Life.”

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"

Viola Davis, "The Help"

Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"

Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Alternates: Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”; Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”

Mara is probably closer to ousting Glenn Close than anyone seems to be admitting, given her consistency throughout the precursors, but AMPAS will likely turn out to reward an Oscar comeback for Glenn, after nearly 25 years.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Leonardo Di Caprio, “J. Edgar”

Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Alternates: Michael Fassbender, “Shame”; Demian Bichir, “A Better Life”; Michael Shannon, “Take Shelter”

I don’t think that “Shame” is going to float Oscar’s boat, and that might allow for Gary Oldman, who has been gaining career honours, and whose film appears as if it might be buoyed by guild and BAFTA love, to sneak in above the critically-championed Michael Fassbender. But then Leo isn’t safe either. Exciting?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"

Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

Vanessa Redgrave, "Coriolanus"

Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Alternates: Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”; Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”; Carey Mulligan, “Shame”

Again, I’m hoping that the performance will win out. The three women listed here as alternates all have detractors to do with their films. “Coriolanus” may be heavy going, but it at least has the prestige that the others don’t.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"

Albert Brooks, "Drive"

Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

Ben Kingsley, "Hugo"

Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Alternates: Nick Nolte, “Warrior”; Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”; Armie Hammer, “J.Edgar”

As soon as I watched “Hugo” it seemed a cinch to me that Kingsley would be nominated for this sympathetic, key role as cinema’s original auteur. There hasn’t been quite the wave of reaction some anticipated, but this category is still fractured and open after Globe and SAG went their separate ways.

Best Original Screenplay

“50/50”

"The Artist"

"Bridesmaids"

"Midnight in Paris"

“Win Win”

Alternates: “Margin Call”; “Young Adult”; “A Separation”; “Beginners”

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Descendants"

"The Help"

"Hugo"

"The Ides of March"

"Moneyball"

Alternates: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”; “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Original Score

“The Adventures of Tintin”

“The Artist”

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“War Horse”

Best Original Song

“Albert Nobbs”

“The Help”

“Machine Gun Preacher"

“The Muppets”

“The Muppets”

Best Documentary Feature

“If a Tree Falls”

“Pina”

“Project Nim”

“Semper Fi: Always Faithful”

“We Were Here”

Best Foreign Language Film

“Footnote” (Israel)

“In Darkness” (Poland)

“Monsieur Lazhar” (Canada)

“Omar Killed Me" (Morocco)

“A Separation” (Iran)

Best Animated Feature

“The Adventures of Tintin”

“Cars 2”

“Chico & Rita”

“Puss In Boots”

“Rango”

Best Art Direction

"The Artist"

"Captain America: The First Avenger"

"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II"

"Hugo"

“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

Best Costume Design

“The Artist”

“The Help”

“Hugo”

“Jane Eyre”

“My Week With Marilyn”

Best Make Up

“The Artist”

“Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life”

"The Iron Lady"

Best Cinematography

"The Artist"

"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

"Hugo"

"The Tree of Life"

"War Horse"

Best Film Editing

"The Artist"

"Drive"

"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

"Moneyball"

"War Horse"

Best Visual Effects

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II”

“Hugo”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

“The Tree of Life”

Best Sound Mixing

“The Adventures of Tintin”

“The Artist”

“Hugo”

“Moneyball”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

Best Sound Editing

“The Adventures of Tintin”

“Hanna”

“Hugo”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Who'd Be in a Comedy or a Musical?

If “Bridesmaids” miraculously manages to get itself into Oscar’s Best Picture lineup this year, it would be the anomaly of all anomalies – a broad, crass, raunchy, female-dominated film breaking the mould. Regardless of whether this happens or not, there’ll always be the nagging issue of Oscar’s general attitude towards comedy, which tends to get forgotten about when it comes to year-end awards. The implication that comedy/”light” performances are lesser fare than dramatic ones is both inaccurate and offensive, but it’s often the preconception adopted by middlebrow filmgoers.

Whatever you think about the Golden Globes, the Hollywood Foreign Press have always used their ceremony to help celebrate comedy, despite that often leading to even more guffaw at their nominations than in their drama categories. Predictably, those singled out in this section are far less likely to have success with SAG and AMPAS, and the fairly grim reality is that lively, funny, and layered performances like Kristen Wiig’s this year won’t make it past this particular precursor hurdle.

In the past ten years, the Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical category has seen fourteen nominations translate to Academy Award notices.

 

• Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”

• Nicole Kidman, “Moulin Rouge”

• Renee Zellweger, “Chicago”

• Diane Keaton, “Something’s Gotta Give”

• Annette Bening, “Being Julia”

• Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

• Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

• Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”

• Keira Knightley, “Pride and Prejudice”

• Meryl Streep, ”The Devil Wears Prada”

• Marion Cotillard, “La Vie En Rose”

• Ellen Page, “Juno”

• Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”

• Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”

*Catherine Zeta Jones received a Golden Globe nomination for “Chicago”, but a Supporting nomination with Oscar.

This is a 28% transfer to Oscar, which is relatively decent, but not considering that Witherspoon’s, Knightley’s, and Cotillard’s are arguably dramatic performances masquerading as musical or comedic ones.

The situation looks comparatively positive for women when you look at the men. In the past ten seasons only five men nominated in the Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical category have been nominated for the Best Actor Oscar.

• Nicholas Cage, “Adaptation”

• Bill Murray, “Lost In Translation”

• Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

• Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”

• Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

Just a meager 10% transfer from Globes to Oscar, folks. And even that’s with Foxx and Phoenix producing essentially dramatic performances in films about musicians.

There are literally too many Globe-nominated comedic performances by Actresses to list here, but I’ve trawled through the history and found some great Best Actor in a comedy nominees from days-gone-by to single out as major Oscar snubs.

Donald Sutherland in “M*A*S*H”

Lost out to: Melvyn Douglas, “I Never Sang For My Father,” James Earl Jones, “The Great White Hope,” Jack Nicholson, “Five Easy Pieces,” Ryan O’Neal, “Love Story,” George C. Scott, “Patton”

Billy Crystal in “When Harry Met Sally”

Lost out to: Kenneth Branagh, “Henry V”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “My Left Foot”; Tom Cruise, “Born on the Fourth of July”; Morgan Freeman, “Driving Miss Daisy”; Robin Williams, “Dead Poets Society”

Tim Robbins in “The Player”

Lost out to: Robert Downey Jr, “Chaplin”; Clint Eastwood, “Unforgiven”; Al Pacino, “Scent of a Woman”; Stephen Rea, “The Crying Game”; Denzel Washington, “Malcolm X”

Terence Stamp in “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert”

Lost out to: Tom Hanks, “Forrest Gump”; Morgan Freeman, “The Shawshank Redemption”; Nigel Hawthorne, “The Madness of King George”; Paul Newman, “Nobody’s Fool”; John Travolta, “Pulp Fiction”

Paul Giamatti in “Sideways"

Lost out to: Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda”; Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland”; Leonardo Di Caprio, “The Aviator”; Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”; Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

All of this is especially worrying given that this year has seen one of the greatest lineups in this category in recent memory; Jean Dujardin, Brendan Gleeson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ryan Gosling, and Owen Wilson all giving smart comedic(ish) performances. The only one in with a legitimate chance (and a great one at that) of an Oscar nomination is Dujardin, which will be the first crossover nomination of the decade, and a mightily well-deserved one.

It’s a bit much to ask for Oscar to dramatically change its dirty habits, but could they at least appreciate our funnymen a little more?

The Not-So-Silent Backlash & NBR Predictions

As the saying goes: ‘silence is golden’, but if many people have their way, the silent film that has so far won over several festival audiences and at least one major critics group, will not be crowned the best of 2011. Monday afternoon saw the announcement of the New York Film Critics Circle winners, as well as this year’s Indie Spirit nominations, both of which gave Michel Haznavicius’ “The Artist” a boost with Picture, Director, Leading Actor, and Cinematography notices. The aftermath of NYFCC’s awardage of the film with its two biggest prizes proved unexpectedly negative, the decision labelled safe, and the film denounced as a novelty by high-profile figures. “The Artist” isn’t terribly original because it’s an homage which lends plot devices from classic cinema, but it’s far more comfortable with what it is and tight in story-structure than most of the other frontrunners. It may not necessarily be a five-star film but it certainly trumps the likes of “The Descendants,” “The Help,” and “Midnight in Paris.”

It remains to be seen whether the film can build upon its New York win to mount a strong showing with the critics, which previously appeared unlikely. With its nose firmly put out-of-joint the National Board of Review votes for their ten best films today, and although “The Artist” seems within the mould of their admittedly old-fashioned preferences, I’m going to hold off on suggesting it can set the ball rolling for a sweep. This year feels like more of a scattered, spoil-sharing prospect after last year’s uniform endorsement of “The Social Network” – especially with voting bodies seemingly at war with one another. All things considered, “Moneyball” remains the best-reviewed film with realistic awards potential, so it makes sense for it to win a prize from a significant voting body (whatever your view on the NBR, their opinion carries weight).

The top ten is a minefield to predict, but you can be assured that they like political dramas, so this could be a handy get for the dwindling “The Ides of March,” and they always include Clint Eastwood’s films so expect “J. Edgar” to pop up here despite the disastrous reviews. From there, it gets tricky. Who knows if they’ll even remember those earlier acclaimed films “Beginners,” “Jane Eyre, “ and “Win Win”? Are “Melancholia,” “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Take Shelter” a bit too far outside of the box for this group? Your guess is as good as mine.

Picture: “Moneyball”

Alt: “The Artist”

Top Ten:

“The Artist”

“Beginners”

“The Descendants”

“Hugo”

“The Ides of March”

“J. Edgar”

“Midnight in Paris”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

“The Tree of Life”

“War Horse”

Director: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Alt: Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

Leading Actress: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

Alt: Elizabeth Olsen, “Martha Marcy May Marlene”

Leading Actor: Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Alt: George Clooney, “The Descendants”

Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, “The Help,” “Take Shelter,” “The Tree of Life”

Alt: Vanessa Redgrave, “Coriolanus”

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Alt: Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”

Screenplay: “Moneyball”

Alt: “The Descendants”

Animated Feature: “Rango”

Alt: “Chico & Rita”

Foreign Film: “Certified Copy”

Alt: “A Separation”

Documentary: “Project Nim”

Alt: “The Interrupters”

Review: The Descendants

The Descendants

Directed by Alexander Payne

Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Matthew Lillard, Judy Greer, Robert Forster

Grade: C+

As maudlin voiceovers go, Miranda July’s cat-on-a-deathbed soliloquy in “The Future” has competition for the prize of ‘most annoying of 2011’, as George Clooney’s opening gambit in the wearily-spirited “The Descendants” may narrowly beat it out. In a speech in which Hawaii is characterised as a pillar of heritage, Clooney’s Matt King divulges to the audience the exposition that director Alexander Payne (“Election,” “About Schmidt,” “Sideways”) neglects to integrate into the narrative insightfully – which is that Matt’s wife Elizabeth is in a coma as a result of a boating accident, and that he’s struggling to take care of his two daughters. A fine premise for a film, given Payne’s history of resisting the urge to plumb the tearjerking sensitivities in his scripts for emotional effect, but as “The Descendants” proves: there’s always one exception to the rule.

Burgeoning talent Shailene Woodley’s entrance into the story as inebriated, frolicking teen Alexandra gives her the tag of the problem child, but is dismantled fairly soon after the daughters are rounded up to hunt down their dying mother’s fellow adulterer. The film charts Matt’s attempts to deal with the revelations of his wife’s recent behaviour, and his confrontation with the reality that many of his questions about their life together may well be left unanswered. In the midst of crises Matt’s relationship with his two daughters slowly comes together, revealing them to be a genuine unit, even as the early scenes had threatened to expose this as a hiding to nowhere. The genealogical angle employed to give the title added meaning sees Matt and his shareholder relatives in negotiations to sell the expanse of land on the island belonging to their ancestors, providing him with a secondary avenue in which to determine what ‘family’ means.

“The Descendants” boasts an unlikely setup for a comedy, but its blackness comes off as largely honest. The use of the Hawaiian setting to illustrate the film’s theme of disconnection works effectively in mirroring the tenuous nature of the frayed relationships within the family, and, whether as a result of having to make do with being thrown together or through the guidance of a director looking to develop the premise through the skills of his actors, the ensemble of “The Descendants” find a way to somewhat authenticate this band of people. There’s a makeshift sense of construction to their interactions which works within the film’s dramatic arc, and Payne’s presentation of familial solidarity-in-progress at least finds a way to resonate uniquely and effectively. Much of this can be attributed to the supporting performances surrounding Clooney, whose instincts for dry comedy have always felt like a neutered form of his zany “O’ Brother Where Art Thou” shtick. He has soulful moments but mostly relies upon the presence of Krause, Miller, and particularly Woodley alongside him, whose layered performance looks set to grab awards attention.

The problems lie in the strange tone of the film, and the tendencies of the humour to cheaply play to the audience. With alarming regularity, Clooney and his troupe go island-hopping at the drop of a hat, aided by tag-a-long Californian oaf Sid in the designated role of an outspoken jackass. There’s more than an element of “Little Miss Sunshine” to this family-outing setup, diluted by the morbidity and emotion of the predicament, but nonetheless indicative of Chabrol-style whimsy, alienating us from the characters as much as it draws us to them. Payne isn’t shy when it comes to big confrontation scenes, but he often uses directness to further the story when it doesn’t seem best appropriate, and his and Clooney’s attempts to extricate empathy for Matt occasionally fall on deaf ears.

There's something of Alexander Payne lurking in "The Descendants," beneath its unmistakeable plotting, infantile humour, and precious advocacy of togetherness. It has the midlife crisis-element of “Sideways,” the adolescent angst present in “Election,” but, more than anything else, exhibits the caustic charm of "About Schmidt" – albeit with a touch more humanity and considerably less nudity. Like Almodovar with the maligned “Broken Embraces” Payne’s auteurial gaze rakes over old ground, but lightly riffs rather than wickedly satirising, and ultimately feels like a backwards tread. However well its assemblage of young actors can pull off ‘artfully precocious’ with rounded aplomb, “The Descendants” surely represents this filmmaker’s most flawed work to date.

First Oscar Predictions for 2011

Last Friday's release of Tomas Alfredson's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" was significant in more ways than one; not only is it an accomplished and riveting piece of work, it's the first major Awards-focused contender to be released this year. That's not to say that those out for a while (at least Stateside) such as "Midnight in Paris" and the audacious "The Tree of Life" aren't in the conversation for Oscars -- just that they understandably didn't position themselves in prime Autumn/Winter calendar spots.

With the Venice and Toronto festivals now over, and a mere two weeks until London's own showcase kicks off, it seems as good a time as any to dole out some tentative predictions for this year's Oscar nominees, announced in January. The next couple weeks see hopefuls like "Warrior," "Melancholia," and "The Help" released on UK shores, while the rest of the year features new work from Steven Spielberg, Alexander Payne, and Clint Eastwood.

Here is how I currently see the races shaping up:

Best Picture

"The Artist"

"The Descendants"

"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

"The Help"

"J. Edgar"

"War Horse"

On the Outside:

"Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy"

"Midnight in Paris"

"Moneyball"

"The Tree of Life"

"We Bought a Zoo"

Best Director

Clint Eastwood, "J. Edgar"

Michael Haznavicius, "The Artist"

Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

Steven Spielberg, "War Horse"

On the Outside:

Tate Taylor, "The Help"

Stephen Daldry, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

Cameron Crowe, "We Bought a Zoo"

Is the "J. Edgar" trailer that bad? Personally, I don't think so. Di Caprio seems to be staying within a comfort zone, but that isn't surprising; it looks formal and business like, but that isn't surprising. When faced with political dramas it seems more likely to me that the Academy would choose "J. Edgar," a film about American politics and a prominent figure in particular, than the subtle aloof intricacies of Tomas Alfredson's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy," which is more arty and hard work. The odds on Eastwood's film being better are fairly slim, but otherwise nothing suggests to me that it isn't in a strong position going into the end of the season.

As the only one of these currently released "The Help" already has the mark of success, with decent critical praise, a ton of public approval, a handy mixture of light and shade to detail the Academy-friendly topics of race and prejudice. I really can't see it missing out given all of these collective factors. "The Artist" and "The Descendants" appear to be the titles exiting festivals with the biggest buzz, while Steven Spielberg's "War Horse" has the huge Pullitzer pedigree, a World War II setting, and a 'horse and his boy' story.

The wildcard pick here is "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," which reads on paper as fairly schematic and soapy, but it's written by Eric Roth of "Benjamin Button" approval and has an impressive cast. Lingering on the outside (this could be a list encompassing anything from five to ten nominees, remember) are the two aforementioned early-year releases by Woody Allen and Terrence Malick, both of which have many supporters and could emerge should some of those December titles falter.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"

Viola Davis, "The Help"

Felicity Jones, "Like Crazy"

Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

On the Outside:

Charlize Theron, "Young Adult"

Keira Knightley, "A Dangerous Method"

Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Elizabeth Olsen, "Martha Marcy May Marlene"

Kirsten Dunst, "Melancholia"

Beyond Meryl Streep and Glenn Close, who have been hogging most of the buzz even as few people have seen "Albert Nobbs" and almost nobody has seen "The Iron Lady," this category looks to be up-in-the-air. All of the perceived main contenders have detractors: in the case of Jones and Olsen being unknowns in small, critically well-received dramas, in the case of Mara a film and persona that looks too dark and off-putting for the Academy, and in the case of Knightley divisive reviews on whether her performance hits or completely misses.

I toyed with including Knightley and Theron, who at least have been here before, but with "A Dangerous Method" seeming to lose buzz and "Young Adult" a complete unknown quantity at this stage, I decided to leave them out for now. "Like Crazy" has been building word since Sundance and Felicity Jones is an extremely likable actress in a baity role, so I could easily foresee her campaign getting stronger through the Autumn. Michelle Williams' fate is more difficult to predict, since people don't seem to be on board with her or the film at all, but once the reviews start spilling out there could be a nostalgia factor with the media. Especially since Marilyn never got an Oscar nomination herself.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Leonardo Di Caprio, "J. Edgar"

Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Gary Oldman, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter"

On the Outside:

Woody Harrelson, "Rampart"

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"

Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Matt Damon, "We Bought a Zoo"

Michael Fassbender, "Shame"

It'd take a significant departure from George Clooney's usual middling, wry charm for him to wow me in "The Descendants" but when you're an Academy favourite, you're an Academy favourite, and this is a sympathetic role for him. Ditto Di Caprio, who has to be favourite to win, if only because there's virtually no biopic competition, and the fact that he's regarded as overdue by quite a few. But maybe not quite as overdue as Gary Oldman (certainly if we're talking in the British quarters) and even if "Tinker, Tailor..." contains his most withdrawn and crafted performance it'll probably be enough to get him a nomination for a film that's universally-respected.

From there, Jean Dujardin has the buzz, and if "The Artist" turns out to be the real deal among arthouse audiences and the older demographic then this doesn't seem an unlikely get. Joseph Gordon-Levitt has the guarantee of a well-liked film and the hugely advantageous topic of cancer on his side, but he's still relatively young in terms of Best Actor nominees, so they could easily oversee him for older men in more high profile films -- like Tom Hanks or Matt Damon. But instead I see the fifth nominee being someone like Michael Shannon, who falls somewhere in the middle of all this mix of respectability, prestige, and acclaim. It's still a game of guessing.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

Judi Dench, "J. Edgar"

Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"

Vanessa Redgrave, "Coriolanus"

Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

On the Outside:

Melanie Laurent, "Beginners"

Jessica Chastain, "Take Shelter"

Carey Mulligan, "Drive"/"Shame"

Marion Cotillard, "Midnight in Paris"

Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Maybe I'm overestimating "The Help" a touch but I'm still confident about its chances across the board. Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both have roles as the funny, caretaking black woman and the ditzy white woman who confounds common stereotypes of her race. Chastain has too many films out this year when you consider how difficult it is for a new-on-the-scene actress to build an awards campaign with one film these days. But the performances themselves have been so well-liked, and this film is so well-liked, that this could legitimately happen for her.

Vanessa Redgrave's continued great notices for Shakespearian drama "Coriolanus" and Judi Dench's surprisingly prominent presence in the newly-released "J. Edgar" trailer both suggest that these perennial women of awards discussion can reappear for (perhaps) final nominations/wins. It's been twelve seasons since Janet McTeer managed her sole nomination for "Tumbleweeds" but a role opposite Glenn Close's cross-dressing butler has since renewed hopes of a second Osar outing. It's a difficult pick to be confident about given that nobody particularly liked "Albert Nobbs" and McTeer's presence doesn't have the comeback factor of her co-star. She could easily be completely overshadowed.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Jim Broadbent, "The Iron Lady"

Albert Brooks, "Drive"

Armie Hammer, "J. Edgar"

Tom Hardy, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

On the Outside:

Nick Nolte, "Warrior"

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Ides of March"

Ben Kingsley, "Hugo"

Christoph Waltz, "Carnage"

Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"

I nearly predicted the popular Christoph Waltz, since he's been singled out as the best of the "Carnage" ensemble and may be becoming known as one of those reliable 'supporting' players after his Oscar win in that category, but ultimately "Carnage" doesn't look as if it's going to be the major contender it promised to be. The only solid reviews so far have been for Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer, and Nick Nolte - the latter of which could easily make the five but who is in a film which, ironically, doesn't look as if it's going to last the distance.

Tom Hardy gives the second best performance in Tomas Alfredson's slow-burning espionage thriller (no mean feat!), but faces internal competition from Benedict Cumberbatch; Jim Broadbent is surely going to be stellar as the baity husband of Meryl's Thatcher, and if that "J. Edgar" trailer emphasises anything, it's that Armie Hammer is going to get more to do than afforded him in "The Social Network."

Best Original Screenplay

"The Artist"

"Beginners"

"J. Edgar"

"Midnight in Paris"

"Win Win"

On the Outside:

"Young Adult"

"Like Crazy"

"Bridesmaids"

"Take Shelter"

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Descendants"

"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

"Moneyball"

"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

"War Horse"

On the outside:

"The Help"

"We Bought a Zoo"

"The Ides of March"

"A Dangerous Method"