I've been mulling this over for a long time and I'm still not completely sure. I'm confident that No Country and Michael Clayton will make the lineup, as they seem to have had the strongest presence in all of the major precursors. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is similar to last year's Pan's Labyrinth, and that wasn't nominated, but it did get the PGA, and will probably have a strong presence elsewhere, so I'm gonna predict it. I feel like Atonement isn't popular enough, but its guilds snub means little considering Eastwood's Jima wasn't included there last year, and made it with just the NBR and LAFCA, when Atonement has the Globe. Plus it's SO Oscar. I just can't leave it out. So that leaves me with the choice of Penn's seemingly popular (at least with the actors) Into The Wild, the seeming popular (with everyone) Juno, and the seemingly popular (with the critics) There Will Be Blood. In a race this tight Blood will probably have to rely on a lot of #1 ballots, and I'm not convinced your average voter is going to prefer this to the other two. It's just so dark and heavy. By contrast Juno's style of comedy -- even in a year distinctly lacking in that -- may feel a little frivolous for Oscar. So I've decided, finally, that Into the Wild will be my fifth prediction.
Picture
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright - Atonement
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