Sunday, December 02, 2007

New Oscar Predictions {Before all the Critics have their say}

Best Picture

1. Atonement
2. No Country For Old Men
3. Juno
4. Into the Wild
5. There Will Be Blood

No Country For Old Men looks incredibly strong at the moment, and I have total faith that Oscar will embrace Atonement's ambitious audacity. As for Into the Wild, everyone pretty much likes it. Plus the fact that it's directed by an Oscar winner can't do any harm. There Will Be Blood will be heavy but surely memorable in a year with so little of the 'extraordinary'. And Juno continues to go from strength to strength. One of the biggest buzzing films at the moment, and looks set to become this year's indie darling. Hell, it could probably make the lineup coasting on the buzz of its starlet.

Alternatives: Sweeney Todd, The Kite Runner

Best Director

1. Joe Wright - Atonement
2. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
3. Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
5. Todd Haynes - I'm Not There

Wright
is in. Penn is an Oscar winner with a strong film. AMPAS love the Coens, and have surely jilted Paul Thomas Anderson one time too many to deny him a place here. Haynes' film is too quirky for BP, but respected enough to grab him one of these spots. I'm really confident about this category.

Alternatives: Jason Reitman - Juno, Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War

Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
2. Julie Christie - Away From Her
3. Ellen Page - Juno
4. Keira Knightley - Atonement
5. Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart

Mad, mad category. Cotillard has the hotness, the biopic (and seemingly a strong one if the Satellites are anything to go by), and the SCENES. Christie has her previous Oscar, a raved film, and a sympathetic role. Plus the fact she's flat out incredible. Page has the media spotlight at the moment. Knightley has the strongest film, and trust me, people are going to want to find things to nominate Atonement for. And Jolie is the biggest star of them all, but has the film that people won't remember, however wonderfully crafted it may be. I would say she is by far the weakest of those five, especially given the big buzz for Amy Adams, and the big love for Laura Linney. Even though The Savages seems to be losing steam quickly she was the only nominee when Kinsey similarly fell flat on its face. I'm calling Jolie for the moment.

Alternatives: Laura Linney - The Savages, Amy Adams - Enchanted

Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. James McAvoy - Atonement
3. George Clooney - Michael Clayton
4. Frank Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
5. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd

Day-Lewis is the one I'd put my life on giving an oscar-worthy peformance. A sure success. Depends on how they take the film but I'm confident. This category has got mad lately. Lots of possibilities. I like it. McAvoy is excellent, and as I've said, I think he'll have the strongest film. Clooney is the title character and as the film is a relentless character study (a very decent one at that) it stands him in good stead. PLUS he's George Clooney! Langella's buzz is building in time for the awards shortlist, and he's a household name. And the wonderful Johnny Depp has great early notices for Sweeney. We'll see if he can make it into a line-up that's fiercely contested at the moment, but if he does, he could even win. I hope I haven't jinxed it! Hirsch will have a strong film but is a lesser known in a crowd of veteran performers, and Tommy Lee Jones will surely have fans but his film bombed more than anyone could have expected.

Alternatives: Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild, Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
2. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
3. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
4. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton (yay!)
5. Amy Ryan - Gone, Baby, Gone

Blanchett and Ronan are too strong. Redgrave I think is going to knock people's socks off with her short role (she certainly did mine). Plus she's an Oscar fave. Swinton was fantastic, and if Clooney is nominated like I think he will be, she should follow. Truthfully, I haven't heard of Amy Ryan before, but if in doubt, go for the teary women. I love MacDonald and the film should be strong. Garai is the least good of the three Briony's but has possibly the most baity scenes.

Alternatives: Kelly MacDonald - No Country For Old Men, Romola Garai - Atonement

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
2. Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
3. Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
4. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
5. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War

Holbrook is the prime candidate. Sympathetic and nearly dead. Bardem is going to be remembered more than anyone else. Affleck has Gone, Baby, Gone on top of this to remind him he's edging out of the shadow of his brother. Wilkinson's madman role is very Oscar. And Hoffman, who I don't think will fit into the lead category, and often plays the joker, may be given this nomination for a comic role, in what I suspect will be a film criticised heavily for its comedy.

Alternatives: Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood, Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn

1 comment:

Rural Juror said...

The fact you've seen Atonement gives me much resentment