Golden Globes 2007 {Predictions}

The last week has been crazy, what with the NBR last Wednesday, prizes from Boston, LA, New York, Washington and San Francisco following, and nominations from Chicago and yesterday the Broadcast critics. I haven't been able to post about anything else. Ahead of tomorrow's Golden Globe Nominations (!!) I'm gonna give my take on how it affects each race, and what/who I think is going to be nominated...

Best Picture (Drama)

The Assasination of Jesse James
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Alternate: Eastern Promises

The Picture race has become much much clearer over the past week. There Will Be Blood's LAFCA double, other good notices and early raves mean it's looking strong for Awards Season -- even if it may take more for Oscar to bite. The Globes don't seem to have a problem nominating heavy films anyway. No Country For Old Men is winning most of the critics prizes so far, and had major buzz in November, which bodes well for these nominations. Atonement similarly has always had big buzz. Plus the Globes define the importance of image and spectacle. Michael Clayton is looking more like an Oscar BP nominee with every day. Undoubtedly a filler, but everyone seems to like it. Into the Wild leads the Critics Choice nominees and may well be the favourite for victory there, so that's also looking a strong proposition, but it's not necessarily the type of film the Globes will love. My alternate is Eastern Promises based on the fact that they went for Cronenberg's History of Violence in 2005 and this year doesn't have an endless amount of candidates. A definite possibility. As is The Kite Runner and American Gangster, which pretty much sums up the list of drama candidates for Oscar, with the exception of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which is ineligible in this category at the Globes.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Charlie Wilson's War
Enchanted

Hairspray
Juno
Sweeney Todd

Alternate: The Savages

I know. I know. I know. But it's all about the campaign. Juno and Sweeney Todd are the strongest here, probably more so the latter, given their tendency to give the win to a musical in this category. I think Juno is perhaps a little stronger for Oscar. Hairspray, again, because it's a musical. Enchanted because it was hot property last month, and Charlie Wilson because they've been campaigning hard, and they like to acknowledge baity films. The Savages lost a lot of steam. I hope it doesn't lose out but it's in dodgy territory. Other contenders are Ratatouille, Knocked Up and Lars and the Real Girl, which has done a lot better than I thought it would. Once is a longshot.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Ethan & Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Andrew Dominik - The Assassination of Jesse James
Joe Wright - Atonement

Alternate: Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton

If you're spoiled for choice, go for showy.

Best Actress (Drama)

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley - Atonement

Alternate: Tang Wei - Lust, Caution

These are the only ladies who have had really big Oscar buzz and strong campaigns to match.

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

Amy Adams - Enchanted
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Alternate: Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd

Now this is an interesting category. You might be surprised that I included Blanchett, but the Globes tend to make performances blurred between lead and supporting lead. Plus when they were filling their ballots there was all that talk about them campaigning her as lead anyway. Nicole Kidman will hope that the HFPA liked Margot half as much as they liked Squid and the Whale two years ago, but I wouldn't bet on it. Nikki Blonsky, Katherine Heigl, and Keri Russell (who I sincerely hope will not be nominated) are possibilities here. I didn't want to leave out Carter, but they'll have to really love the film to include her I think. Adams, Cotillard and Linney are probably the only women mentioned here who have a chance at getting an Actress nom at Oscar.

Best Actor (Drama)

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
James McAvoy - Atonement
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Brad Pitt - The Assassination of Jesse James

Alternate: Denzel Washington - American Gangster

Clooney and Day Lewis are strong. McAvoy is shaky as he's the least "macho" in a host of macho performances here. Plus he's the youngest and most inexperienced. But he's a hottie, which will help him here. Pitt has lots of competition, but can they resist a Pitt/Jolie double nom. Red carpet goodness right there. Plus they nominated him last year. It was a tough call between Mortensen and Washington, but I figure they'll like Promises better than Gangster. Other contenders are Emile Hirsch, Josh Brolin and Frank Langella, who I suspect will be snubbed here but enter the frame at SAG.

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages

Alternate: John Travolta - Hairspray

I think a double nom is on the cards for Depp. He got nominated for both the other Pirates films. They adore him. His Sweeney turn will most likely win it. Similarly they aren't going to deny Hanks an opportunity. Lord knows he hasn't had too many lately. Hoffman has raves even though the film has weakened. And Gosling has a couple of nominations and a film that most people liked. Plus he's an in thing. All that Lovely Bones stuff shouldn't matter. I'm going to put Travolta in supporting but he could feature here. Seth Rogen is in with a shot too, and boy does he deserve it.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone, Baby, Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Alternate: Kelly MacDonald - No Country For Old Men

As I've explained, I think Blanchett is going lead. Amy Ryan has battered everybody else in the critics awards, and is surely heading for an Oscar nomination. Tilda Swinton is rightfully getting noticed this Awards Season. The Atonement girls are the only really solid picks from the rest of the pack, and I wouldn't count out a triple Briony nomination with the introduction of Garai, but I'm not brave enough to predict it. I think Leigh is popular enough to grab the fifth spot -- especially if they like the film. Other contenders are Ruby Dee (I'd be appalled), Catherine Keener, and Leslie Mann, who will definitely have some fans here.

Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
John Travolta - Hairspray

Alternate: Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

I'm thinking Travolta is more likely to make an appearance here. Think Ferrell in The Producers. What I said about the Globes pushing performers with a lot of screentime lead is unlikely to apply to Casey Affleck. Of course he's lead, but the Actor (Drama) category is already too competitive and as I've said, I espect Pitt to be nominated there. Holbrook should be OK. Was a tough call between Hoffman and Wilkinson, but Hoffman has the popularity at the moment. The old guard, Max Von Sydow and Philip Bosco could definitely upset here... although I think they have a better chance at SAG. The Sweeney supporting crowd could get noticed. Especially last year's Actor winner Sacha Baron Cohen.

Best Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Diablo Cody - Juno
Ethan & Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl

Alternate: Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton