Who'd Be in a Comedy or a Musical?

If “Bridesmaids” miraculously manages to get itself into Oscar’s Best Picture lineup this year, it would be the anomaly of all anomalies – a broad, crass, raunchy, female-dominated film breaking the mould. Regardless of whether this happens or not, there’ll always be the nagging issue of Oscar’s general attitude towards comedy, which tends to get forgotten about when it comes to year-end awards. The implication that comedy/”light” performances are lesser fare than dramatic ones is both inaccurate and offensive, but it’s often the preconception adopted by middlebrow filmgoers.

Whatever you think about the Golden Globes, the Hollywood Foreign Press have always used their ceremony to help celebrate comedy, despite that often leading to even more guffaw at their nominations than in their drama categories. Predictably, those singled out in this section are far less likely to have success with SAG and AMPAS, and the fairly grim reality is that lively, funny, and layered performances like Kristen Wiig’s this year won’t make it past this particular precursor hurdle.

In the past ten years, the Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical category has seen fourteen nominations translate to Academy Award notices.

 

• Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”

• Nicole Kidman, “Moulin Rouge”

• Renee Zellweger, “Chicago”

• Diane Keaton, “Something’s Gotta Give”

• Annette Bening, “Being Julia”

• Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

• Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

• Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”

• Keira Knightley, “Pride and Prejudice”

• Meryl Streep, ”The Devil Wears Prada”

• Marion Cotillard, “La Vie En Rose”

• Ellen Page, “Juno”

• Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”

• Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”

*Catherine Zeta Jones received a Golden Globe nomination for “Chicago”, but a Supporting nomination with Oscar.

This is a 28% transfer to Oscar, which is relatively decent, but not considering that Witherspoon’s, Knightley’s, and Cotillard’s are arguably dramatic performances masquerading as musical or comedic ones.

The situation looks comparatively positive for women when you look at the men. In the past ten seasons only five men nominated in the Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical category have been nominated for the Best Actor Oscar.

• Nicholas Cage, “Adaptation”

• Bill Murray, “Lost In Translation”

• Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

• Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”

• Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

Just a meager 10% transfer from Globes to Oscar, folks. And even that’s with Foxx and Phoenix producing essentially dramatic performances in films about musicians.

There are literally too many Globe-nominated comedic performances by Actresses to list here, but I’ve trawled through the history and found some great Best Actor in a comedy nominees from days-gone-by to single out as major Oscar snubs.

Donald Sutherland in “M*A*S*H”

Lost out to: Melvyn Douglas, “I Never Sang For My Father,” James Earl Jones, “The Great White Hope,” Jack Nicholson, “Five Easy Pieces,” Ryan O’Neal, “Love Story,” George C. Scott, “Patton”

Billy Crystal in “When Harry Met Sally”

Lost out to: Kenneth Branagh, “Henry V”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “My Left Foot”; Tom Cruise, “Born on the Fourth of July”; Morgan Freeman, “Driving Miss Daisy”; Robin Williams, “Dead Poets Society”

Tim Robbins in “The Player”

Lost out to: Robert Downey Jr, “Chaplin”; Clint Eastwood, “Unforgiven”; Al Pacino, “Scent of a Woman”; Stephen Rea, “The Crying Game”; Denzel Washington, “Malcolm X”

Terence Stamp in “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert”

Lost out to: Tom Hanks, “Forrest Gump”; Morgan Freeman, “The Shawshank Redemption”; Nigel Hawthorne, “The Madness of King George”; Paul Newman, “Nobody’s Fool”; John Travolta, “Pulp Fiction”

Paul Giamatti in “Sideways"

Lost out to: Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda”; Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland”; Leonardo Di Caprio, “The Aviator”; Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”; Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

All of this is especially worrying given that this year has seen one of the greatest lineups in this category in recent memory; Jean Dujardin, Brendan Gleeson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ryan Gosling, and Owen Wilson all giving smart comedic(ish) performances. The only one in with a legitimate chance (and a great one at that) of an Oscar nomination is Dujardin, which will be the first crossover nomination of the decade, and a mightily well-deserved one.

It’s a bit much to ask for Oscar to dramatically change its dirty habits, but could they at least appreciate our funnymen a little more?

Golden Globe: Nominations and Pre-Announcement Predictions

Picture (Drama):

• “The Descendants”

• “The Help”

• “Hugo”

• “The Ides of March"
• “Moneyball"
• “War Horse”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: As will become apparent in the course of this post, I have a feeling that David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method" could do well here, given the excellent reviews and recent warm appraisal of his work by the HFPA. After the SAG shut-out, this will be a particularly big test for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," which should be re-titled "Extremely Late and Incredibly Cheeky." Spielberg and "War Horse" don't feel like potential winners of anything anymore, but even if it misses the Academy could still resurrect it, given the obvious advantage of its tearjerking elements.

Picture (Comedy/Musical):

• “50/50”
• “The Artist”

• “Bridesmaids”

• “Carnage”
• “Midnight in Paris”

• “My Week with Marilyn"

Prediction Score: 3/5

Prediction summary: An unusually strong category this year (especially compared to last!) to the extent where I'm only comfortable with the first three picks. After that, "We Bought a Zoo" and "Young Adult" could be outmuscled by the well-reviewed "50/50," or the A-list laden "Carnage." Or else be brushed aside by Simon Curtis' featherweight Marilyn Monroe movie? 

Director:

• Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
• George Clooney, "The Ides of March"
• Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: I toyed with including David Cronenberg but I didn't want to go that crazy with the film. Refn is getting many notices with critics, and I reckon the Globes will be much kinder to "Drive" than the SAGs were or the Oscars likely will be. A host of names could pop up here, like Woody Allen, Stephen Daldry, or Tate Taylor.

Leading Actress (Drama):

• Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
• Viola Davis, “The Help”

• Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

• Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: A Glenn Close snub doesn't seem like the smartest thing in the world to predict after her SAG nomination, but this is a hipper kind of branch. Felicity Jones appears to be more in favour than Elizabeth Olsen, and I've been convinced from the beginning of the season that somebody would give Keira Knightley something given the sheer ferocity of the performance. The other options are Kirsten Dunst and Rooney Mara.

Leading Actor (Drama):

• George Clooney, “The Descendants”

• Leonardo Di Caprio, “J. Edgar”

• Michael Fassbender, “Shame”

• Ryan Gosling, “The Ides of March”

• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Prediction score: 4/5

Prediction summary: When all is said and done, the Globes are about stars. This is one of the starriest actor lineups they can muster this year.

Leading Actress (Comedy/Musical):

• Jodie Foster, "Carnage”

• Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”

• Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”

• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

• Kate Winslet, “Carnage”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: Scarlett Johansson was their sweetheart in '03, '04, and '05 (remember "A Love Song for Bobby Long" anyone?) but her spot could easily go to Jodie Foster in a "Carnage" double-dip, Berenice Bejo in a category switchup, or perennial Globe favourites Julia Roberts and Cameron Diaz, who worked this year, which is usually good enough.

Leading Actor (Comedy/Musical):

• Brendan Gleeson, "The Guard"

• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

• Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"
• Ryan Gosling, "Crazy Stupid Love"
• Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"


Prediction score: 2/5

Prediction summary: My logic: predict Johnny Depp and then if he's nominated you'll at least be happy that you got it right. Unless of course he manages to be included for his performance in the latest "Pirates of the Caribbean" instalment, in which case you can just kill me. Ryan Gosling could be nominated twice if they liked those abs in "Crazy Stupid Love"; Christoph Waltz or John C. Reilly (the Globes like him!) might find themselves here if the "Carnage" love runs free. I don't even want to contemplate a Tom Hanks nomination.

Supporting Actress:

• Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
• Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

• Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"

• Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

• Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

Prediction score: 3/5


Prediction summary: Will this be where Carey Mulligan lands a major nomination? She's certainly a huge star profile right now. Melissa McCarthy is the biggest lock here after that SAG inclusion, but someone else could well be ousted to make room for Sandra Bullock. Winning Globe, SAG, and Oscar two years ago isn't enough for these people. They want to canonise their Bullock at every opportunity.

Supporting Actor:

• Albert Brooks, “Drive”

• Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”

• Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

• Viggo Mortensen, “A Dangerous Method”

• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Prediction score: 4/5


Prediction summary: Sacha Baron Cohen is well-liked, and let's face it: this category is batshit crazy. Beyond Branagh, Plummer, and (surely) Brooks, there's no telling where the Academy is going to go. I definitely don't see a Nick Nolte nomination happening here, so it's gonna differ from the SAG whatever happens.

Screenplay:

• "The Artist"

• "The Descendants"

• "The Ides of March"

• "Midnight in Paris"

• "Moneyball"

Animated Feature:

• "The Adventures of Tintin"
• "Arthur Christmas"
• "Cars 2"

• "Puss In Boots"

• "Rango"

Foreign Language Film:

• "The Flowers of War" (China)

• "In the Land of Blood and Honey" (USA)

• "The Kid with a Bike" (Belgium)

• "A Separation" (Iran)

• "The Skin I Live In" (Spain)

Original Score:

• Ludovic Bource, "The Artist"

• Abel Korzeniowski, "W.E."

• Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

• Howard Shore, "Hugo"

• John Williams, "War Horse"


Original Song:

• 'Hello Hello', "Gnomeo and Juliet"

• 'The Keeper', "Machine Gun Preacher"

• 'Lay Your Head Down', "Albert Nobbs"

• 'The Living Proof', "The Help"

• 'Masterpiece', "W.E." (Madonna!)