Wednesday, January 21, 2009

**Final** Oscar Predictions Part 3: The Big Six


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Milk

Three of the biggest precursor bodies for this category, the PGA, DGA and ACE, all went for Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog, and Milk. So naturally I'm going against that.

Call me crazy but I think Wall-E may have managed to surpass the Animated Feature tag this year. The Incredibles came pretty close in 2004, but it didn't have the support that Wall-E has, or the critics awards that mark it as a viable candidate.


Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Alternate: Andrew Stanton - Wall-E

The favourite five. I may be brave enough to pick the lil' robot but I daren't go for Stanton. Even though he totally deserves it.

Actress in a Leading Role

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Even after the Globe win I'm terrified that Sally Hawkins is going to lose out here. Missing SAG and BFCA is really bad, but this category has been pretty competitive and still doesn't have a frontrunner. Well, maybe Winslet, but if she wins in Supporting for The Reader then who knows, right? Still, a Winslet/Reader inclusion here is very possible and would certainly kill off the competition. Melissa Leo will get a lot of votes but enough? We'll see.

Actor in a Leading Role

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Alternate: Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Brad Pitt feels even more of a "movie star" now than he did a decade ago, and so even with Globe and SAG it isn't a done deal. It might not matter but I think an Eastwood inclusion here is likely and if it's tight I'd always go with the veteran performers in this category. Think of the Emile Hirsch/Ryan Gosling snubs last year. I know Brad is in his forties now but the other five are damn OLD.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Alternate: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

There seems to be a general indifference towards Amy Adams' performance in Doubt, but she got the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, and this is the acting category most likely to feature two performers from the same film. I'd say that she's the most shakiest though, since Marisa Tomei's late critics surge (coupled with good feeling for the film) makes her seem pretty much in.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jnr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky

This looks dead-on to me. Unless Dev Patel splits his votes between lead and supporting and ends up with nothing. But for that to happen would take somebody else to emerge from a sparse, precursor-deprived pack of men, headed (I suspect) by the volatile Eddy Marsan.


Dave said...

Why does the text all get slowly smaller? That's really weird.

I think Wall-E is certainly possible but no way is Stanton getting near a nom. The bias would never shift that far away. (Watch it happen now.)

I would love Marsan to get in. (Especially at Patel's expense.) But it's Sally I'll be listening intently for. The Learning Grid will be treated to a tirade of swearing if it doesn't occur.

Cal said...

I thought that way about Stanton but his name certainly has been banded around quite a bit. More than Jason Reitman's was last year anyway.

And do you mean the writing gets smaller during the post? Or that it's smaller than the ones further down. Sometimes I like to change it. Which is better? Lol.

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