The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Changeling
Revolutionary Road
Alternate: Australia
Make Up
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Of the seven contenders for this award you'd have to say Benjamin Button is the obvious pick for the nomination and win, given the major age gimmick. The Reader also has this, but isn't particularly special, and there isn't a great deal of old Kate in the film. Hellboy is a definite option but I fancy that it might be ousted in the fantasy stakes by Heath's joker-face in The Dark Knight. And I've gone for Tropic Thunder in the final spot, because of the nominations for Click and Norbit in recent years. I'm not necessarily saying that the makeup department has a habit of nominating bad films, I'm referring to the fat-suit pattern, which could mean Tom Cruise's cameo is popular with them. I haven't seen much evidence of Synechdoche, but I fancy that of all the shortlisted films this one will be the least watched, though I do have it as an alternate.
Australia
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Sometimes the cinematographers get wacky and fun. Last year was a boring, uniform example of people agreeing all awards season, but apart from The Dark Knight and the revered Slumdog nothing seems particularly assured this year. I'd expect Roger Deakins to make it for at least one of his two efforts for The Reader (shared with Chris Menges) and Revolutionary Road, and I fancy the latter is a bit more flash. I've gone for Australia, because it is so in-your-face (rather like Phantom of the Opera and The Illusionist were) that it's sure to have fans -- even if support for the film itself is distinctly lacking. Defiance is here because Edward Zwick films tend to pick up something somewhere, and although this film doesn't have the possibility of an Acting nomination as Blood Diamond and The Last Samurai did, it's a recent release that made NBR.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Editing historically matches Picture, which would seem to be backed up this year by the fact that the ACE noms match the PGA/DGA/Favourite Five for the main award. But as I'm not going for that five, I'm sticking Defiance in there (co-incidentally in an act of defiance) for similar reasons to the Cinematography prediction.
Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Since The Dark Knight appears to have transcended the label of summer blockbuster, Iron Man fills that void pretty well, especially since it got similarly impressive reviews. It also has better effects, if you ask me. But anyway yeah... there's a 15-film shortlist but these three look good.
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
A mixture of war/action and uplifting sentiment.
Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The loudest, plus Wall-E. Animated films do well here.
Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Alternate: Milk
John Williams is god to them. The rest are great.
Original Song
Bolt - "I Thought I Lost You"
Slumdog Millionaire - "Jaiho"
Slumdog Millionaire - "O Saya
"Wall-E - "Down to Earth
"The Wrestler - "The Wrestler"
Alternate: Gran Torino - "Gran Torino"
The usual suspects plus another bone for the dog.
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