Final Oscar Predictions: Part 2/2

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

"127 Hours"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The Social Network"

My Favourite: "The Social Network"

Writing (Original Screenplay)

"Another Year"

"The Fighter"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: "The Fighter"

The screenplays are pretty much a done deal. I still think "The Social Network" is way stronger than any of its competitors, and Aaron Sorkin has too much respect to lose.

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"

Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"

Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"

Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

James Franco in "127 Hours"

Predicted Winner: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

I think this category is eminently improvable, but Firth is a decent winner.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in "The Fighter"

John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"

Jeremy Renner in "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

My Favourite: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Rush only wins if a big sweep happens, which I don't think it will. Bale has everything going for him as an Oscar candidate, and Dickie has significantly more impact as a character than Lionel Logue.

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"

Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"

Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

My Favourite: Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

It would be rather amusing watching the celebrity mags guffaw over a loss for the blushing Natalie Portman (she's PREGNANT, wouldn't you know?) but even I can't really justify a Bening triumph (either qualitatively, or prognostically.)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"

Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"

Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Predicted Winner: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

My Favourite: Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

The interesting category, which unfortunately should be over fairly early in the ceremony. Unless they're somehow aware that this one's a closely-fought battle. I suspect it's less close than people think, because no one woman has been able to mount a challenge against Leo's precursor-winning trashy Mom turn. Maybe Helena at a push, but I don't see it happening.

Directing

Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Predicted Winner: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

I don't want to predict this, but I feel I must. I will admit that the rare occasions that DGA has not correlated with Oscar, it's usually been for more well-known directors, and Hooper hasn't really managed to win anything beyond that guild prize. But still, you sense that there is an awful lot of love for this film, and Fincher himself doesn't project much likeability.

Best Picture

"Black Swan"

"The Fighter"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

"127 Hours"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: "The Fighter"

This seems nailed on now.

2008, Or How Nothing Ever Changes

I wouldn’t be the first one to argue that 2008 represented a particularly thin filmic year, which offered up some interesting and unique prospects – Tomas Alfredson’s Let the Right One In, Ari Folman’s Waltz With Bashir, and the small-time originals penned by Courtney Hunt and Thomas McCarthy just the tip of the iceberg – but too often these films felt loaded with ideas that weren’t fully realised. One of the main themes to emerge from the year was a desire to dredge up the past; whether that be the renowned classic, the obligatory sequel, or the staple Oscar favourite. Two films were most obvious in their desire to hark back to, re-live, or even resurrect a revered golden age of cinema, and in their failings perhaps epitomise the doomed state of an artistic year (era if you want to look closer and more bleakly at it) that distinctly lacked quality.

Maybe I’m being unfair. Is this year really that much worse than 2003? Or even 2006, in which a number of films relied a little too heavily on inspired acting to make their points? Then there’s the question of whether I’m just getting fussier, but the general dislike for 2008 (at least that’s the attitude I’m guaging) seems to be dissuading me of this, and thus the apparent mini-consensus prevents me from feeling harsh for giving Milk a B and The Reader a B- (yes, those are the two I feel most guilty about at the moment).

But back to the films, which if you haven’t guessed yet are George Clooney’s Easter-released Leatherheads, a rare screwball outing which couldn’t even manage Renee Zelwegger a Golden Globe nomination (and we know how rare an occurrence that is) and the epic Australia, which saw Baz Luhrmann attempt everything to remind us of one of the best years in cinema, 1939, through both theme and spectacle. Sadly it failed to live up to any of the amazing films of sixty years ago.

Admittedly, there are issues as to whether Hawks’ classic comedies can ever be replicated successfully in the same vein, and further insight into this as my dissertation topic has led to social relevance suggesting that either ‘we’ as the audience, or ‘they’ as filmmakers are unable to tap into thirties’ reverence and knowledge of society, or flimsy female-led romance. A matter for discussion but in any case Luhrmann’s extravaganza sadly felt more like a Pirates of the Caribbean installment – event, event, comedy, event, event, kiss, effect, event, comedy, event etc. – than a sly, knowing melodrama, with genuinely imposing characters. Not that I’m saying the sight of Hugh Jackman’s chest didn’t impose upon me greatly, I just didn’t really get the passion his character had for both cattle driving and Nicole Kidman. For all of Rhett Butler’s ambivalence he was pretty dastardly passionate when he wanted to be, in that loner, “look at all the uneducated hicks creaming themselves over war” kind of way; although the fact that I’ve described his character in terms of a plot point makes the film all the more successful than him.

And if there was ever an example of characters evolving solely through plot points this year it was Brad Pitt’s Benjamin Button. Come rain or shine Benjamin Button would be doing something meaningful, whether it was changing appearance (that happened frequently), falling in love, going to war, or generally overcoming a disability that only challenged him in an aesthetic sense. A cinematographic-heavy lunge of sorts would be accompanied by a philosophical statement about either age, beauty, or the unpredictability of life, and one can really see it as a nursery rhyme; anecdotal, formulaic, and overtly simple to grasp. But all this bore enough hallmarks of traditional “importance” -- forbidden romance, black female matriarchs, against-the-odds achievement – that it garnered a rather ridiculous thirteen Oscar nominations. Similar Oscar fare reared its ugly head in the form of The Reader (which I do like despite major problems), Doubt, and the completely uninspiring Frost/Nixon. For purposes of sanity, I’m refusing to mention the eventual winner of that prize until I recover from the past three months of constant awardage.

But enough of all that negative talk; Richard Jenkins is not in my cherished top seven of this year’s Best Actor candidates, but his nomination for an April release is the earliest in the calendar since Anthony Hopkins was noted and rewarded for his menacing Silence of the Lambs turn. An achievement, certainly since the role isn’t particularly showy and he lingered in the background for much of the race. It was a similar story for Melissa Leo, whose Frozen River saw the light of day in the summer. Her buzz carried the film to an additional nomination in the Screenplay category in an altogether despondent year for Leading Actresses, but nevertheless a fiercely contested one.

The Dark Knight and WALL·E made a ton of money, which hasn’t dissuaded Academy Members of biting a line in the past, but maybe Louis B. Mayer’s philosophy still rings true 81 years later, and in a polarised environment between industry and “quality” these films simply don’t have what it takes to fall close enough to the Oscar threshold. Frankly, I’m convinced that these will be the movies truly remembered and netflixed when the film fans of the next generation come to explore this limp year.

I recently bought Inside Oscar and from reading the first few chapters the overwhelming insight into the awards process is that it doesn’t change. I’m sure that fifty-odd years ago teenagers were incensed at Around the World in Eighty Days winning Best Picture (if they weren’t they fucking should have been) and in a cultural sense they’d probably have more reason to be than our admonishment of today’s Indian tale. But whether it’s testy European humour or third-world positivity that really gets your goat, you can be sure that when the pickings are slim people will jump on the wagon for an ephemeral escape.

Personally I’m itching for a permanent escape from 2008, and after I complete my Addict awards (they start in a couple of days) I’m gonna look to the past to provide some much-needed inspiration. And not in the form of empty fairytales, holocaust movies, or political one-upmanship.

SAG Predictions & Reaction

Reaction

I got 4/5 in my predictions.

Slumdog walked away with one of Acting's highest honours (I'll refrain), Sean Penn won for being more awardable than Mickey Rourke (interesting battle, though), and Ledger et Winslet repeated their fraudulent Globe wins. Thankfully, Meryl Streep won the Actress prize, and typically provided the most entertaining speech of the night.

Does this change anything? Not much. As soon as BAFTA chime in I'll review all the races and make some final predix. Until then, I'll leave you with some totally cringeworthy red carpet footage. Is it any wonder that Brangelina blanked E! at the Globes after this shambolic interview, featuring some total gossip girl-style obsession and certainly no mention of Changeling at all?

Here were my predictions:-

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
SEAN PENN - "MILK"

I generally find that the choices by the Actor's Guild are more conservative, so I expect Penn to win, although it's still all to play for on Feb 22.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
MELISSA LEO - "FROZEN RIVER"

Why not? Halle Berry won this in 2001 (and went on to strike gold with Oscar) when the Actress category didn't feature an obvious winner. Winslet has the Oscar already but this could go to anyone.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
HEATH LEDGER - "THE DARK KNIGHT"

This is even more nailed on than the Globes.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
KATE WINSLET - "THE READER"

It would be funny if Viola Davis won (which she very well could) -- if only to see the media dramatise a Winslet loss and suggest she's not gonna get the Golden Guy after all.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

It's enough of an ensemble to get away with winning this award. Doubt has a shot because of the 4 Oscar nominations but, well, you can't argue with momentum.

Treading On Thin Ice

Frozen River

Directed by Courtney Hunt

Starring: Melissa Leo, Misty Upham, Michael O'Keefe, Charlie McDermott

Grade: C+

As well as being a picturesque and predictably frosty setting for Courtney Hunt's debut project Frozen River is also its title, presumably chosen for its simplicity and metaphoric value (fragility, danger, an ever-changing state). It isn't a far-reaching metaphor, since Melissa Leo's Ray Eddy teeters tentatively on the brink of both poverty and crime before plunging herself fearlessly into the latter. As a working-class American mother-of-two living near the border between New York and Quebec, Ray is dirt-poor and thoroughly miserable, the film opening with a shot of her tear-streaked face despairing over just where the money to pay the next bill is gonna come from. Melissa Leo (I'll get this out of the way) is very good, fulfilling most of what's asked of her muddled character valiantly, effective even in the vast amount of close-ups she's subjected to and amidst serious character inconsistencies.

Ray is drawn into criminal activity through Lila (Misty Upham), a Mohawk woman in need of a car to ferry immigrants from Canada to the U.S. Their relationship, as it turns out, becomes the vessel for the film's insightful knowledge of working-class social and racial attitude (as well as Ray's character arc) which is undoubtedly the most valuable part of Frozen River. Their initial encounters lack trust and are packed with racial tension (mostly stemming from Ray herself) and the awkward silences between them are often filled with the two women nervous, unsure, introspectively judging each other. They are linked at first by a flimsy desire to do the "best" for their kids (Lila has a baby boy she does not have access to), but as the women become first partners, and finally friends, it's clear that their predicaments are inextricably tied.

Frozen River is so effective in its early stages because of Hunt's accurate awareness of this kind of life and its enveloping stranglehold, leading to the re-percussions of crime and punishment. Ray isn't necessarily stupid, as she very well could have been written, but nor does she show any real wisdom or demonstration of what her life has taught her so far. Like many people with her troubles she lives in a dolorous world, and as such is ignorant and quite incapable of stepping back and realising why things aren't getting any better. Her long-term goal is to get a house in a very tacky-looking estate resembling something you'd see an advert for on daytime TV, and she's evidently still paying off an exgravagant widescreen television she doesn't really need -- especially when she can't even afford to feed her children properly. This woman's approach towards family and money feels incredibly honest, and as such the poverty-stricken setting doesn't seem the cliche it often can be in films of this nature.

It's all predominantly about the shaping of Ray's character and is thankfully without much revelation and self-reflection, despite the use of a dramatic plot device which threatens to do so and altogether cheapens Frozen River substantially. I won't go into too much detail, but it's a biblical "Is the baby dead?" revelation we saw similarly, and fairly recently, in last year's Eastern Promises. As well as being a pretty lame way of chronicling Ray's disregard for immigrants or the reason why they want to emigrate in the first place, it's also redundant, in that it bizarrely gets ignored for the rest of the film, or at least doesn't effect anything Ray does after that. It could be intentional; as in her character is so immersed in her own circumstance that even such a mammoth blatantly symbolic event cannot deter her from being a criminal for one last night, but even so, why bother in the first place?

Hunt does a great job of balancing the selfishness and selflessness of Ray for long periods of this film but finally loses it in a quite ridiculous finale that appears to want to establish her as a traditional heroine despite going to great lengths to distance her from 'familiar repressed woman bites back' sensationalism, à la Charlize Theron in North Country. It's brave resting your entire film on one person, but Frozen River is finally shown up for being selfish in its portrayal of a woman that admirably never once purports to be a Florence Nightingale or Joan of Arc but regrettably becomes one anyway.