Final Oscar Predictions: Part 2/2

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

"127 Hours"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The Social Network"

My Favourite: "The Social Network"

Writing (Original Screenplay)

"Another Year"

"The Fighter"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: "The Fighter"

The screenplays are pretty much a done deal. I still think "The Social Network" is way stronger than any of its competitors, and Aaron Sorkin has too much respect to lose.

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"

Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"

Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"

Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

James Franco in "127 Hours"

Predicted Winner: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

I think this category is eminently improvable, but Firth is a decent winner.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in "The Fighter"

John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"

Jeremy Renner in "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

My Favourite: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Rush only wins if a big sweep happens, which I don't think it will. Bale has everything going for him as an Oscar candidate, and Dickie has significantly more impact as a character than Lionel Logue.

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"

Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"

Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

My Favourite: Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

It would be rather amusing watching the celebrity mags guffaw over a loss for the blushing Natalie Portman (she's PREGNANT, wouldn't you know?) but even I can't really justify a Bening triumph (either qualitatively, or prognostically.)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"

Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"

Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Predicted Winner: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

My Favourite: Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

The interesting category, which unfortunately should be over fairly early in the ceremony. Unless they're somehow aware that this one's a closely-fought battle. I suspect it's less close than people think, because no one woman has been able to mount a challenge against Leo's precursor-winning trashy Mom turn. Maybe Helena at a push, but I don't see it happening.

Directing

Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Predicted Winner: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

I don't want to predict this, but I feel I must. I will admit that the rare occasions that DGA has not correlated with Oscar, it's usually been for more well-known directors, and Hooper hasn't really managed to win anything beyond that guild prize. But still, you sense that there is an awful lot of love for this film, and Fincher himself doesn't project much likeability.

Best Picture

"Black Swan"

"The Fighter"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

"127 Hours"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"

My Favourite: "The Fighter"

This seems nailed on now.

Predicting the Oscar Nominees: Part 2/3 (Acting)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Alternate: Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

Still in the Hunt: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit", Noomi Rapace, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", Hilary Swank, "Conviction", Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

This race is fiercely competitive for the fifth spot, if you assume that Nicole Kidman is safe enough to coast in on reputation despite a serious dearth of buzz for "Rabbit Hole" itself. Part of me wanted to put Steinfeld into the predicted lineup since the Academy has previously shown the sense to amend category fraud, but they've only really done it once for an Actress this young -- Keisha Castle-Hughes for "Whale Rider" (2003). The reality, of course, is that Steinfeld could end up without a nomination at all.

Beyond that, there's the obvious love for the Millennium trilogy, which has seen Rapace turn up at BFCA and BAFTA (decent prognosticators for Oscar) without there really being much of a campaign. There's also a case for Julianne Moore (if they love the film enough) and Hilary Swank, whose film died a death but was somewhat resurrected by the Screen Actors Guild. And then there's NBR winner Lesley Manville: their Best Actress choice has been nominated for the past 19 years.

I'm going to go with Michelle Williams, because she's a) been nominated before b) is at the right career point, and c) has a sympathetic role in a DECEMBER film. But it could very well be one of those other five women.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Alternate: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

Still in the Hunt: Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter", Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

The SAG lineup looks like the most probable outcome for this race, since Bridges and Duvall are crucially older (Oscar respects the elders, zzzz) and Javier Bardem doesn't appear to have made the impact some were expecting post-Cannes. But he does seem the most likely spoiler, given the incredibly baity role and previous win in 2007. I didn't have the heart to leave Gosling off this list, because he's so brilliant that I don't know how anyone could leave him off the ballot, but alas, the best performances are rarely acknowledged. If "The Fighter" turns out to be a huge success with AMPAS then Wahlberg is a legitimate contender, although, without having seen the film, it doesn't seem as if his role is showy enough.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Alternate: Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"

Still in the Hunt: Barbara Hershey, "Black Swan", Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

It's ridiculously stupid to bet against Mila Kunis, who has a slam dunk trio of Globe, BFCA, and SAG nominations, but I just don't think her performance is enough up Oscar's alley, and she has internal competition from Hershey. This is probably the most volatile category, with the Steinfeld category confusion, the Black Swan face/off, and a growing consensus (?) that Lesley Manville is Supporting in "Another Year". Anyone who buys this assertion: watch the final shot again. Everything is told through her character.

I could get 3/5 here, but I can't bring myself to drop Jacki Weaver.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"

Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Alternate: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Still in the Hunt: Sam Rockwell, "Conviction", Billy Murray, "Get Low", Michael Douglas, "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps"

It looks as if Renner is in above Hawkes, although I'd love to see them switch places. Either way, this will be a brilliant category. I'm thinking that Sam Rockwell is in a bit of a Michael Shannon/"Revolutionary Road" position, but 2008 wasn't as strong as this, so it looks as if he'll miss out here.

Predicting the Oscar Nominees: Part 1/3 (Director & Screenplays)

So with just five days left until AMPAS reveal their annual list of annointed folks (check the sidebar for a more accurate countdown, courtesy of Nathaniel) it's time for me to throw in some predictions. As ever, it's somewhat of a struggle to put aside personal feelings and plum for the more logical picks, but I feel like I've done better than usual this year at curbing that tendency.

Final Predictions:

Original Screenplay

"Black Swan"

"The Fighter"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

Alternate: "Another Year"

I Want: "Blue Valentine"

I don't think that "Inception" belongs here, despite the originality of its concept - the more expansive the concept gets, the more hazy everything becomes. It concerns me that this could make the list at the expense of Mike Leigh's "Another Year," which, despite some faults, helps its characters to become clearer and its themes richer, the further it goes.

"Inception" should make this five based on how novel its ideas are, but I still think that, along with "Black Swan," it's a little vulnerable. Perhaps it's because those two films seem less tame, and comparatively unconcerned about winning over its audience when you consider other category hopefuls like "The Kids Are All Right" and certainly "The King's Speech".

Adapted Screenplay

"Never Let Me Go"

"The Social Network"

"Toy Story 3"

"True Grit"

"Winter's Bone"

Alternate: "127 Hours"

I Want: "How to Train Your Dragon"

"Never Let Me Go" didn't make much of an impact, but surely Kazuo Ishiguro has a lot of respect within the Academy for his distinguished career, the height of which saw his novel "The Remains of the Day" adapted and nominated in 1993's Best Picture lineup. It seems silly to go for this ahead of "127 Hours," or even "The Ghost Writer" which has populism and prestige going for it —— if significantly less buzz —— but I don't think either film is necessarily commanding attention in this extremely thin category.

Director

Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Ethan & Joel Coen, "True Grit"

David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

David O'Russell, "The Fighter"

Alternate: Chris Nolan, "Inception"

I Want: Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone"

If there's a snub it could be David O'Russell, who has a reputation of rubbing people up the wrong way, and the least flashy film of anyone that appears to be in the running. But lately I've began to wonder if "Inception" will be popular with the Academy, as it's difficult to process and definitely not traditional fare. History has proven that directors with popular films (regardless of how showy they are) are more likely to be nominated (Reitman for "Juno", Daldry for "The Reader" etc.) so I don't see why Chris Nolan is a sure thing when "The Fighter" and "True Grit" had much more clout around the time of balloting than his film did.

Danny Boyle will feature on many ballots but I'm praying against a nomination, given that he exercises even less patience for intuitive storytelling as he did on 2008's "Slumdog Millionaire".

Screen Actors Guild Nominations, 2010

The Screen Actors Guild Nominations have been announced, and they don't include Lesley Manville, Michelle Williams, or Julianne Moore. Instead, SAG decided to bestow their fifth Best Actress nomination upon Oscar favourite Hilary Swank, who had seemed to be losing momentum after her film, "Conviction", didn't fare so well.

On the male side of things, the younger generation were predictably shafted in favour of stalwarts Bridges and Duvall. It'll be interesting to see whether those two lone rangers can carry that love to Oscar, or if Ryan Gosling can usurp one of them. There's also the issue of "The Fighter" emerging as a surprisingly strong contender for Mark Wahlberg this Awards Season.

I nearly correctly predicted a nomination for John Hawkes, but I'd be lying if I said that would be instead of Andrew Garfield. In my eyes, Mark Ruffalo and Jeremy Renner still look vulnerable, despite the former having a film that people clearly like. Mila Kunis continues to defy my expectations as Penelope Cruz did last year. It's not that I didn't think she was good -- I just didn't leave the screening of "Black Swan" thinking that she was in any way awards-worthy. But then that might be down to the other gazillion things rolling around in my head after that film finished.

The nominations:-


BEST ENSEMBLE

Black Swan

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Prediction Score: 3/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Prediction Score: 4/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Hilary Swank, "Conviction"

Prediction Score: 4/5

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Prediction Score: 4/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Prediction Score: 4/5