Friday, February 25, 2011

Final Oscar Predictions: Part 2/2

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The Social Network"
My Favourite: "The Social Network"

Writing (Original Screenplay)

"Another Year"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"
My Favourite: "The Fighter"

The screenplays are pretty much a done deal. I still think "The Social Network" is way stronger than any of its competitors, and Aaron Sorkin has too much respect to lose.

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
James Franco in "127 Hours"

Predicted Winner: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
My Favourite: Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

I think this category is eminently improvable, but Firth is a decent winner.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"

Predicted Winner: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
My Favourite: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Rush only wins if a big sweep happens, which I don't think it will. Bale has everything going for him as an Oscar candidate, and Dickie has significantly more impact as a character than Lionel Logue.

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
My Favourite: Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

It would be rather amusing watching the celebrity mags guffaw over a loss for the blushing Natalie Portman (she's PREGNANT, wouldn't you know?) but even I can't really justify a Bening triumph (either qualitatively, or prognostically.)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Predicted Winner: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
My Favourite: Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

The interesting category, which unfortunately should be over fairly early in the ceremony. Unless they're somehow aware that this one's a closely-fought battle. I suspect it's less close than people think, because no one woman has been able to mount a challenge against Leo's precursor-winning trashy Mom turn. Maybe Helena at a push, but I don't see it happening.


Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Predicted Winner: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
My Favourite: David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

I don't want to predict this, but I feel I must. I will admit that the rare occasions that DGA has not correlated with Oscar, it's usually been for more well-known directors, and Hooper hasn't really managed to win anything beyond that guild prize. But still, you sense that there is an awful lot of love for this film, and Fincher himself doesn't project much likeability.

Best Picture

"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

Predicted Winner: "The King's Speech"
My Favourite: "The Fighter"

This seems nailed on now.

No comments: