Final Oscar Nomination Predix

Best Picture

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Alternates: District 9, Crazy Heart, Where the Wild Things Are

I think that District 9 is far from a lock, since it came out a while ago and is essentially an action blockbuster. It's a film with passionate followers but how many? Competition is sturdy. From there, A Serious Man doesn't look that strong but there's no denying the film's Jewishness will appeal to certain quarters of the Academy, and the Coen's are fast becoming Oscar staples. 500 Days has been hitting top tens all year but can it make the one that matters? I don't see why not given that its had a long time to gain fans and a status as an offbeat hit.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon



Lee Daniels still seems like an awfully outlandish pick for the Academy to make. Eastwood's inclusion would show a lack of imagination but at this point seems the more likely bet, but can Michael Haneke steal in with a film bound for two nominations anyway and with one of the few real "prestige" films left in the contest?

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Alternate: Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria

I couldn't bring myself to predict Emily Blunt, though everything suggests to me that Helen Mirren is on shaky ground.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Matt Damon - The Informant!

This seems nailed on.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger

Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Nine

Samantha Morton missed Globe and SAG but there's shades of In America. The girl is clearly a favourite with the Academy, and her role is exactly the kind that gets nominated in this category. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga will coast in without any kind of category confusion, leaving Penelope Cruz, Diane Kruger, Julianne Moore, Marion Cotillard, and Melanie Laurent to fight it out for the fifth spot.

With the packed nature of the race it would seem wise to ditch the people with any category confusion and go for Cruz or Moore, whose precursor presence has been fairly consistent. But still, I can't help thinking that Diane Kruger's SAG nomination was because they couldn't vote for Laurent, and that the younger Actress will receive enough #1 ballots to place her above the competition.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Matt Damon - Invictus

It seems wrong to tamper with Globe and SAG but Christian McKay's gimmicky turn is something Oscar have historically gone for. Time then to sub out the youngest guy, though I still don't think that Plummer is a done deal either.

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Alternate: The Hangover

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Alternate: Crazy Heart

Men of the Thirties: Conclusion

After catching The Champ and Skippy I've updated the 1930-31 and 1931-32 pages to include write-ups of nominated and snubbed performances by Jackie Cooper and Wallace Beery. I managed to see 33 Nominees out of 39.

The six that eluded me:

Fredric March - The Royal Family of Broadway (1930-31)

Alfred Lunt - The Guardsman (1931-32)

Frank Morgan - The Affairs of Cellini (1934)

Paul Muni - Black Fury (1935)

Robert Montgomery - Night Must Fall (1937)

Mickey Rooney - Babes in Arms (1939)

1930-31

Oscar Winner: Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul
Favourite Nominee: Jackie Cooper – Skippy

1931-32

Oscar Winner: Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde/Wallace Beery – The Champ
Favourite Nominee: Wallace Beery – The Champ

1932-33

Oscar Winner: Charles Laughton – The Private Life of Henry VIII
Favourite Nominee: Paul Muni – I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang

1934

Oscar Winner: Clark Gable – It Happened One Night
Favourite Nominee: Clark Gable – It Happened One Night
Best of the Year: Leslie Howard – The Scarlet Pimpernel

1935

Oscar Winner: Victor McLaglen – The Informer
Favourite Nominee: Franchot Tone – Mutiny on the Bounty
Best of the Year: Robert Donat – The 39 Steps

1936

Oscar Winner: Paul Muni – The Story of Louis Pasteur
Favourite Nominee: Gary Cooper – Mr. Deeds Goes To Town
Best of the Year: Gary Cooper – Mr. Deeds Goes to Town

1937

Oscar Winner: Spencer Tracy – Captains Courageous
Favourite Nominee: Charles Boyer – Conquest
Best of the Year: Cary Grant – The Awful Truth

1938

Oscar Winner: Spencer Tracy – Boys Town
Favourite Nominee: James Cagney – Angels with Dirty Faces
Best of the Year: Cary Grant – Bringing Up Baby

1939

Oscar Winner: Robert Donat – Goodbye Mr. Chips
Favourite Nominee: James Stewart – Mr. Smith Goes to Washington
Best of the Year: James Stewart – Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

Best Overall Year: 1936
Worst Overall Year: 1937

Best Nominated Performance of the Thirties: Paul Muni – I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang
Worst Nominated Performance of the Thirties: Leslie Howard – Berkeley Square

Best Oscar Win: Clark Gable – It Happened One Night
Worst Oscar Win: Spencer Tracy – Boys Town

Men of the Thirties: 1939

And the Nominees Were:

Robert Donat - Goodbye, Mr. Chips
Clark Gable - Gone With the Wind
Laurence Olivier - Wuthering Heights
Mickey Rooney - Babes in Arms
James Stewart - Mr. Smith Goes To Washington

And the Winner Was:

Robert Donat - Goodbye, Mr. Chips

Gone With the Wind was the film of the year but I'd wager that Gable probably finished third and that the real tussle was between Donat and the nearly-as-saintly Stewart. Gable had won before and Donat was the only other guy previously nominated so probably a pretty standard victory.

My Ratings (in order of preference):-

**** James Stewart in Mr. Smith Goes To Washington

By the time Hitchcock's Rope and Ford's Liberty Valance rolled around James Stewart had the composed-logician-turns-dishevelled-activist act down to a tee, but it's none so effective than in Washington. Up against absurd establishmentarianism Stewart presents the ethics of Capra's film about corruption and coporate back-patting with a winningly gritty sense of underdog, palpably shaken by the rigid state of American politics and the apparent helplessness of its broken morality. It's similar to Cooper's turn as Longfellow Deeds, but while Deeds grappled with issues, Stewart's Jefferson Smith knows the issues and is distinctly unfamiliar with the protocol. A stranglehold of a performance, his eventual hair-tearing antics correlate with the assumed stance of the audience but don't undermine them. We're registering with Smith but he isn't such an assured vessel for the film's politics, and his over-eager desire to foist himself upon Washington and make an impression make his initial tentative steps into Senate life feel distinctly infantile.

**** Clark Gable in Gone With the Wind

Rhett Butler is both an elitist and a masogynist; even though his reputation is far from lofty and his success rate with women seems fairly enviable. Clark Gable proved that he was the perfect person to play the cocksure, non-committal Rhett, who believes he's above and beyond the hick mentality simply because he can get away with not doing an awful lot. Gable has to act opposite one of the best performances there's ever been, but don't be fooled. In a handful of scenes (particularly towards the end) the onus is upon him to turn the film's guilty indulgement of Scarlett O'Hara inside out, and give the film the kind of responsibility as an issue-driven melodrama that it very rarely feels the need to display. His drunken, rough seduction of Scarlett is a particular highlight; this man doesn't know how to be in a relationship or display vulnerability, and he sure as hell doesn't get any help from his other half.

** Robert Donat in Goodbye, Mr. Chips

I thought I was going to get away with ending this project without deeming a performance "hammy", and it's especially amusing that the term is not being used to describe one of the host of head-scatching performances by Paul Muni. Instead, the dishonour is bestowed upon Robert Donat, who plays the paternal schoolmaster Mr. Chips from his twenties to old-age and eventual death. Perhaps it's not so much Donat's fault as the off-putting facial hair he must navigate to get a word out? Nevertheless, the film gives him nothing to do but intersperse bits of tired wisdom to teenagers and occasionally well up with emotion at a moment of remeniscence. Points for effort but overall the turn came across as gimmicky and pedestrian.

* Laurence Olivier in Wuthering Heights

Even though I haven't read Bronte's "Wuthering Heights" it's plain to see that Wyler didn't do a great job with it. The film cuts from event to event with very little time for thought, and so one gets the impression that this version is stolidly faithful. Olivier's Heathcliff is by all accounts a brute, but you learn more about him through Merle Oberon's deft performance as Kathy than anything Sir Lawrence does. He lingers in the background of scenes like a neanderthal troll, and his Hunchback routine consists merely of staring at Kathy as if he'd just been deposited on this planet by an alien race. He fails to demonstrate either his feelings for the woman or the motivations of his character's questionable approach to marriage. Is Heathcliff underwritten here or just not done justice?

Unseen Nominees:-

Mickey Rooney in Babes in Arms

The Snubbed:-

**** Cary Grant in Only Angels Have Wings

As the boss of an air force outlet Grant's Geoff Carter reacts to the early death of a colleague quickly, there's no time for grief during war. It soon becomes apparent, however, that Carter has a similar approach to romance, and as Bonnie (Jean Arthur) does everything she can to make him say that he needs her he resists committing to anything but the job in hand. Only Angels Have Wings is of course a comedy (and a good one at that) but it's often sad, and Grant embodies the film's dynamism, screwball, and homage all at once, rousing people at their lowest and then skulking into resignation himself. A tour-de-force that doesn't come across as one, and a telling example of sociological impact of war.

*** John Wayne in Stagecoach

I have to admit to not much liking John Wayne -- his disarming brashness became a recycled part of his shtick well into the 1970's. At this very early point of his career he perhaps wasn't aware of what he needed to do to get by (the bare minimum for most of his films) and so he gives his character's plucky, reckless protector act a hint of desperation and backstory. If Wayne grew up in Western movies he wasn't quite a loner in 1939, and in Stagecoach his hostility is broader and deeper than a shrug and a trot.

A Look Ahead To SAG Ensemble

A quick word on the BAFTA nominations, which were generally pretty predictable, but for the rejection of both the BRITISH Emily Blunt and the BRITISH Helen Mirren, in favour of the IRISH Saoirse Ronan and the FRENCH Audrey Tatou. Fear not, Emily Blunt... in a similarly delapidated 2005 field Keira Knightley managed an Oscar nod despite missing SAG and BAFTA. It could still happen.

This year's SAG ceremony happens tonight, a Saturday. I'm weighing up whether this is a positive move for me or not, given that I'm at work at 6am on Sundays but really didn't wanna drink all weekend. Regardless, you'd expect easy wins for Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges, with a Bullock-Streep tussle on the side. I have to concede that I found Sandra Bullock's performance much more impressive than Streep's, but I wouldn't really be disappointed if Meryl won, and I think that neither of them are the best of the five.


Best Acting Ensemble

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious


With the absence of Up in the Air (surprising) and Avatar (not so surprising) from the SAG Ensemble lineup, it's looking like an open contest. If anybody needs to win this it's probably The Hurt Locker, since it's threatening to become this year's critics darling and not the big contender for Oscars it looked a month ago. Though maybe Nine needs it more, since it looks dead in the water for a Best Picture Oscar nomination and may not even get an Acting nomination since the studio have gone all-out for Marion Cotillard in Lead.

I'd say Inglourious Basterds is the frontrunner due to its Awards Season prominence and big cast, but what of An Education? It has great all-around acting and won't win in any other category. Precious is the most "serious" film (especially in terms of acting).

Deserves To Win: Inglourious Basterds
My Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress Blogathon: Ginnifer Goodwin in He's Just Not That Into You

I've wanted to talk about He's Just Not That Into You ever since catching it on DVD (its cinema release was Valentines Day) and so Stinkylulu's annual Supporting Actress Blogathon emerges as the perfect platform to discuss my favourite part about it, the charming Ginnifer Goodwin. If you're hung up on category placement, and view the film as led by narrator and probable screen-time queen Ginnifer, then tough luck. I'm usually quick to accept prominent players as "leading" roles but, as with Inglourious Basterds, He's Just Not That Into You is an obvious ensemble piece, featuring a "Who's Who?" of Hollywood's gossip magazine elite, and thus I class every cast member as supporting the other.

The film's titular lament is a brazen statement, and the entire film seems geared towards warning women of not being too obvious about their need for attention and romance, even as its mere existence as a marketable romantic comedy appears to undermine what its saying, and as it inevitably confirms to women that a happy ending does exist.

Ginnifer Goodwin's Gigi is a hopeless romantic, painfully unsure of how to handle potential love interests, way too rapturous at the idea of having one in the first place, pre-occupied with the stages of development in a relationship and already desperate for the white picket fence and two-point-four children. In meeting Alex (Justin Long) she finds an inside source of information on men and how to tell whether they really like you or not, gladly absorbing his information on body language and flirting, eager to learn and become better at the dating game. Goodwin's early pedanticism is very endearing, and as a representation of the over-thought "What if the one gets away?" approach to romance she is successfully hapless, without coming across as an airhead bimbo, or anything less than remarkably intelligent.

Gigi is familiar with protocol, constantly flirting even in her and Alex's first platonic exchanges, maintaining eye contact and nodding her head slightly to show she's taking in his information, digesting it, and doesn't even think to let him go as a romantic option until her bungled attempt at a seduction ends in heavy admonishment. Goodwin navigates the negative connotations of her character's desire for testosterone, and is refreshingly aware of Gigi's emotional openness and the problems that it poses, promoting it as positive and worthwhile even though it leaves her exposed to hurt. She is responsible for the film's ultimate reverence of romance, indulgent of dating and how it's undeniably fun, even though 95% of it ends in the disappointment of not meeting the person you want to spend the rest of your life with.

In the final scene, she (as with the audience) can see why Alex is standing at her door long before he declares that he "can't stop thinking about her", and yet she almost can't believe it when he tells her. Gigi is so ingrained in the process of hunting down men that she can barely acknowledge obtaining one so easily, and with little-to-no effort, that her reaction registers as uncertain, even fearful. Goodwin's face bursts into life with triumph, but one reckons that again, like the audience, Gigi learns virtually nothing out of her experience, and that she will likely work just as hard and make the same sweet mistakes that she always did as she embarks on her first relationship with a guy just as much into her as she is to him.

Lykke Li Does The Shirelles

Haunting, right?

Which 2009 Films Need A Repeat Viewing?

It often goes that after I watch a film I consider its merits for a couple of days. On some occasions I know minutes after I've seen it how I feel about it, and how "good" I think it is, but usually at least twenty-four hours rumination is called for. At the end of the year, after 81 films (just 19 left to see) I'm beginning to reflect on grades from earlier in the year and wondering whether they add up. Here are the assessments I'm particularly doubting...

Antichrist (Current Grade: B+): Yeah, does anyone really need to see this again? I don't intend to buy the film so it may be a while until a repeat viewing. Having said that, I'm very curious as to whether it plays out as powerfully visceral as it did first time around.

Broken Embraces (Current Grade: B+): I marvelled at how Almodovar completely took the piss out of his fondness for trashy melodrama and implemented it into what was a thrilling story of a disastrous love affair. Most people I speak to about this have the opinion that it's average Almodovar at best. I don't know whether to take that as a) an indictment of how much the man has built a reputation, b) a matter of the film's soap-opera style appealing to my tastes more than others, or c) a sign that I over-estimated Broken Embraces a little?

Inglourious Basterds (Current Grade: B): Are those three amazing, unendingly tense scenes still enough to deter the obvious incoherence and crazy final act?

Mr. Nobody (Current Grade: A-): I walked out of the Venice screening of Jaco Van Dormael's Mr. Nobody feeling as if I'd witnessed something titanic; a film that said more about the ever-changing nature of space and time than anything I learned in my degree, and simultaneously managed to make its lecture so fluid, visually enticing and luscious. I confess that I even missed the last moments of the film, and my memory of it as a whole becomes much more hazy. It doesn't look as if the film will get a cinema release here, and it so it seems that I will have to wait a few months until the inevitable straight-to-DVD move occurs. A real shame, actually.

Precious (Current Grade: C+): I felt like Precious was adapted and made as if it took everything for granted. It tries to hark back to an era of gritty urbania with the clumsiness of early black teen comedy, but has none of the soul, and with its production heavies behind it the casting of Mo'Nique and Mariah Carey as if they were plucked from an inner city stage school feels particularly disingenuous. As if Daniels' manic, thoughtless direction wasn't bad enough the character of Mary is handled with such narrow-mindedness that ends in a scene that reeked of sell-out. Convince me I'm wrong.

Thoughts on any of these would be appreciated. Also: are there any grades on the sidebar you find suspect? I like to be urged into rewatching things.

Caught in the Post-War Uproar

Crossfire (1947)

Directed by Edward Dmytryk

Starring: Robert Ryan, Gloria Grahame, Tom Keene, George Cooper, Robert Mitchum, William Phipps

Grade: B -

The actual prejudice depicted in Edward Dmytryk's Crossfire is buried underneath production code pandering and post-war guilt, the homophobic motivation of the killer in Richard Brooks' original novel consigned to the back-burner for a more contextually 'relevant' topic. As the aftermath of World War II highlighted the extent to which Jewish people had been persecuted by Hitler's Germany it comes as little surprise that RKO opted for a more socially-unifiable cause for Crossfire, and that the biggest film of 1947 was Elia Kazan's Gentleman's Agreement, an even more relentless study of anti-semitism in American society.

Crossfire's story of religious prejudice is situated within a similarly domestic arrangement, the murder of an American soldier sparking an investigation and the eventual discovery of bigotry and infidelity among the nation's supposed elite. It's interesting that both films target the upper hierarchy, and both feel completely "responsible" for helping its nation handle issues at the top, where it matters. Gentleman's Agreement in particular reveals its burdened sense of responsibility through stuffy, trepidated exchanges; Crossfire's problems arise from not having a complete handle on the subject, understandable given that the book was never about anti-semitism in the first place.

As Gaspar Noe circled around the events of Irreversible with the swooping intent of a hungry vulture, Dmytryk navigates the darkness in his suspect set of characters with a less dizzying but damningly effective fervour, the opening shot of the film a haunting silhouette of a clunking, clumsy murder, succeeded by vignettes of interviews and flashbacks of the kind where you're expecting a wavy transition. Dmytryk doesn't beat around the bush, delivering the noir setup and raising questions, and for the first half it works well. Gloria Grahame in particular delivers a delicious performance as a 'woman of the night'.

At times it feels like a lesser prologue to Welles' Touch of Evil, with its wannabe denseness and evening chaos, but as a mystery/thriller Crossfire has an engaging but hardly rousing plot, and so when it comes to introducing the anti-semitism we're into a distinct anti-climax. The promise of earlier dissipates into a "How will we hoodwink the killer into revealing himself?", (aided considerably by a brilliant turn from Tom Keene as the adamant detective) but the final act flounders with the absence of violence, mystery, and the captivating Grahame. Howard Hawks' Scarface had similar stumbling blocks; Crossfire becomes less impacting and more matter-of-fact when too conscious of delivering its issue, and sadly that plagues the latter half of this otherwise intriguing venture.

I'm Ringing Church Bells, Church Bells, Church Bells

My fifty favourite singles of 2009...
(Not according to ITunes, but that's another matter)

50. Pet Shop Boys – Love etc.
49. Robbie Williams - Bodies
48. The Nextmen feat. Miss Dynamite – Lion’s Den
47. Empire of the Sun – Walking on a Dream
46. Leona Lewis – Outta My Head
45. Tori Amos – Welcome to England
44. Mika - Rain
43. Bombay Bicycle Club – Always Like This
42. Adam Lambert – For Your Entertainment
41. Rihanna – Russian Roulette

40. Alexandra Burke feat. Flo Rida – Bad Boys
39. Bat For Lashes – Daniel
38. Cheryl Cole – Fight For This Love
37. Annie – Songs Remind Me of You
36. Yeah Yeah Yeah’s – Heads Will Roll
35. The XX – Basic Space
34. Lily Allen – Not Fair
33. Grizzly Bear – Two Weeks
32. Natalie Imbruglia – Want
31. The Gossip – Heavy Cross

30. Patrick Wolf – Vulture
29. La Roux – Quicksand
28. Yeah Yeah Yeah’s – Zero
27. Black Eyed Peas – Meet Me Halfway
26. Paloma Faith – New York
25. Empire of the Sun – We Are the People
24. Blake Lewis – Sad Song
23. Dan Black – Symphonies
22. Mariah Carey – Obsessed
21. Camera Obscura – French Navy

20. Arctic Monkeys – Cornerstone

Gorgeously romantic in the way that The Cure were. Honest and alarmingly flagrant with their words.

19. Friendly Fires – Skeleton Boy
"I close my eyes on the dancefloor and forget about you" -- addictive.

18. Jordin Sparks – Battlefield
Daryl Zanuck didn't know the meaning of the word epic, this is it! Better go get your armour...

17. Yeasayer – Ambling Alp
A shuffling, tentative opening turns into one of the most musically assured offerings of the year. Wisdom in every way.

16. Roisin Murphy – Orally Fixated
This song is constantly building, from the one-minute bubbling intro to the severe chorus. Roisin's is THE 2010 album I'd give anything to have right now.

15. Miley Cyrus – Party in the U.S.A.
"And a Britney song was onnnnnnnnn!". I'm a staunch defender of Miley and this song proves she's capable of writing a classic. Yeah, forget The Climb.

14.Florence and the Machine – Rabbit Heart
What a great year this lady and her outfit had, and this was the pick of the bunch. Immense chorus.

13. Micachu and the Shapes – Lips
Packed into barely even a minute, Lips is like the wailing call of a child. The album's much the same. The shapes have promise.

12. The Maccabees – Love You Better
I actually think this is the love song of the year. Love songs are supposed to be heart-achingly sad, and this is anthemic melancholy at its finest.

11. Jack Penate – Tonight’s Today
Speaking of anthems, Penate came back with an impressive follow-up album to his fine debut. Tonight's Today trumps anything he's ever done before.

10. Ellie Goulding – Under the Sheets
"You're not the answer, I should know. Like all the boys before, like all the boys before". Sad but true.

9. Julian Casablancas – 11th Dimension
I have no idea what this song is about but I was absoloutely entranced by it. Unrelenting, and I could listen to the final thirty seconds forever.

8. Erik Hassle – Hurtful
I generally find scandinavian male voices more interesting, and Hassle really captivated me with his. Hurtful is a real powerful tearjerker.

7. Lady Gaga – Poker Face
A playful dance classic, filled with some huge lines like the opening "I wanna hold em like they do in Texas League, and marked by the now-legendary "P-P-P-Poker face, P-P Poker face".

6. Annie – Anthonio
Such an unashamedly faithful ode, and yet it feels like more of a celebration.

5. Shakira – She Wolf
Bonkers, but anyone that can factor the word "lycanthropy" into a pop song deserves major kudos.

4. Girls Can’t Catch – Keep Your Head Up
In a similar way to The Saturdays last year, Girls Can't Catch made me feel uplifted and devoted to their chorus. This was the Itunes number one, FYI.

3. Girls Aloud – Untouchable
I'm pretending they released the six-minute version. In any case they kept the beautiful robots dancing alone. This is one of the best pop songs ever made.

2. La Roux – In for the Kill
How someone can build a song around an "OOOOh, OOOOh!" is beyond me but doesn't it work AMAZINGLY?

1. Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
Well, I didn't want to be cliche but this is such an incredible tune. As if the "Ra Ra, Ah Ah Ah" tribal lust wasn't mental enough the song shifts from raw passion to longing, extended rapturous calls for romance. It's also probably the vainest love song ever. The whole thing is a show.

Hottest Track: Miike Snow - Silvia

Brief SAG Reaction

Only two real surprises:

1) The rather random inclusion of Diane Kruger in Supporting Actress

Everybody loves the Basterds this Awards season!. On the one hand I think it's a fun and occasionally delicious performance, and on the other I find it a real shame that Melanie Laurent was campaigned by the Weinsteins in the Leading category, as she clearly would have got in here if they'd settled for Supporting. Laurent and Kruger remain outside shots, but the inevitable split that will occur from this probably means that neither will make it and the last spot will be taken up by either Julianne Moore, Academy favourite Samantha Morton, or the mishandled Marion Cotillard. At least that's my take on the situation.

And while we're on it, if Nine is going to be the worst-reviewed film to get a Best Picture nomination this decade, is it really going to get this many major nominations? It seems comparable with Memoirs of a Geisha four years ago, which got equally poor reviews and probably would have managed a spot in a ten-wide field, given its six nods. None of those, however, were for the big six categories, and so it seems to me that Marion Cotillard is on kind of shaky ground given that she now seems behind Cruz and is saddled with a film that people simply don't like? Nine will probably win the Globe but I can't see it gaining any real momentum before the Oscar ballots are posted.

2) The ensemble snub of Up in the Air

While early precursors suggested Up in the Air had enough to emerge as a solid favourite the support for it clearly doesn't rival that of previous BP winners, and it certainly seems to be dwindling under the euphoric love for The Hurt Locker. At the moment it seems like a three-way tussle between Reitman's film, Bigelow's critical favourite, and James Cameron's beastly, cinema-altering production. Say what you want for the ten-wide category but it's feeling very nostalgic to those forties Best Picture winners (I'm looking at you Rebecca and Casablanca) which only managed one or two other victories. That's possibly why Avatar might have the edge, given that it's likely to win multiple effects prizes, but at the moment it seems pretty wide open.

Hottest Track: Kelis - Acapella

Official 2009 Golden Globe Nominations

Motion Picture, Drama
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: This is great for Avatar, and it seems completely on course for an Oscar BP nod, given that it's probably going to be completely up the alley of the Producers and Director's guilds. They didn't love precious (no Director or Screenplay nomination) but it still made it here, and you'd expect it to turn up in the SAG ensemble category. I love that The Hurt Locker and Inglourious are doing so well in the awards race thus far.

Motion Picture, Comedy/Musical
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hangover”
“It’s Complicated”
“Julie & Julia”
“Nine”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: I thought A Serious Man may trump Nancy Meyers' flick, but maybe it's more Oscar's cup of tea than the HFPA. Stuhlbarg managed to get in so I wouldn't say the film is looking *that* weak, but there's a long way to go until February 2nd.

Actor, Drama
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Tobey Maguire, “Brothers”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: Disappointed but not surprised at the exclusion of Jeremy Renner, but I'm not gonna worry too much until Thursday's SAG nominations.

Actress, Drama
Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabby Sidibe, “Precious”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: I'm seriously concerned at how anybody can honestly believe that Emily Blunt gave a better performance than Abbie Cornish this year. I like Emily, but really?

Actor Comedy/Musical
Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Daniel Day Lewis, “Nine”
Robert Downey Jr., “Sherlock Holmes”
Joe Gordon Levitt, “(500) Days of Summer”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: Matt Damon's Informant turn is head-and-shoulders above anything else I've seen by a Leading Actor this year, unless of course you count Christoph Waltz as lead -- which I don't. Michael Stuhlbarg may show up at SAG but it's pretty competitive for those five spots.

Actress, Comedy
Sandra Bullock, “The Proposal”
Marion Cotillard, “Nine”
Julia Roberts, “Duplicity”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Meryl Streep, “It’s Complicated”

Prediction Score: 3/5
Reaction: I liked Duplicity and Roberts in it, though this is completely typical of the Globes. Bullock's nomination here gives her more of a chance of winning in the Drama category but I have no idea how people are going to take to that performance in the long term. I thought she was great but it's feisty in a darker way. She ain't no saintly Erin Brockovich.

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Clint Eastwood, “Invictus”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: They liked Nine but not enough to give Marshall a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’nique, “Precious”
Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”

Prediction Score: 4/5
Reaction: Very happy for Vera Farmiga, but I'd be vary wary of Academy favourites Judi Dench and Samantha Morton upsetting the apple cart.

Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 3.5/5
Reaction: Great news for Christopher Plummer, who you'd expect to manage a SAG nod as well. He's looking like the only one capable of stopping the Waltz sweep.


Total Prediction Score: 34.5/45 (77%)

Other Nominations:-

Screenplay
Neill Blomkampt & Terri Tatchell, “District 9″
Mark Boal, “The Hurt Locker”
Nancy Meyers, “It’s Complicated”
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Original Score
Michael Giacchino, “Up”
Marvin Hamlisch, “The Informant!”
James Horner, “Avatar”
Abel Krozeniowski, “A Single Man”
Karen O and Carter Burwell, “Where the Wild Things Are”

Foreign Language Film
“Baaria”
“Broken Embraces”
“The Maid”
“Un Prophete”
“The White Ribbon”

Original Song
“Cinema Italiano” from “Nine”
“I Want To Come Home” from “Everybody’s Fine”
“I See You” from “Avatar”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
“Winter” from “Brothers”

Golden Globe Predictions, 2009

Time to predict tomorrow's Golden Globe nominations, which are occasionally inspired and usually much more interesting than other nominees lists, given that they actually acknowledge comedy acting. Here are my predictions with some brief justifications:-

Best Picture (Drama)

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Alternate: Avatar

I don't know if Avatar has been around long enough to have managed a nomination here, which is why I'm not predicting it. These five all seem pretty strong.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

500 Days of Summer
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
Nine
A Serious Man

Alternate: It's Complicated

I think that 500 Days is too well-loved to miss out, and The Hangover too was a smash hit. It's Complicated maybe has the timing but it's quite a strong category this year. We'll see.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: James Cameron - Avatar

I almost dropped QT for Cameron and then decided against it.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Drama)

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Alternate: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

They love Johnny Depp and Renner isn't a name. Will surely make SAG though?

Best Actress in a Leading Role (Drama)

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces

Cruz has an amazing amount of star power at the moment. This movie came out ages ago and has very little buzz, but Bright Star and The Last Station don't have much at the moment either, so she could replace one of either Cornish or Mirren.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Comedy)

Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jnr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 500 Days of Summer

Alternate: Robert De Niro - Everybody's Fine

Baldwin seems like a co-lead, and he's been nominated by the Globes in that category over on the TV side of things. Everyone else seems good to go, or as De Niro might put it: everybody's fine.

Best Actress in a Leading Role (Comedy)

Amy Adams - Julie & Julia
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Alternate: Zooey Deschanel - 500 Days of Summer

Nobody's been talking about Pfeiffer for a while but they used to love her, and she's pretty luscious in the film. Deschanel's handy but not a likeable character.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Alfred Molina - An Education

Will they ignore the Harrelson lead thing?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Mariah Carey - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Alternate: Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air

If they can nominate Cruise for Tropic Thunder they can nominate Carey for Precious.

Hottest Track: Yeasayer - Ambling Alp

Delayed NBR Reaction

A bit of a delay since I'm having a busy weekend indulging in food, drink, and.... other things. I scored five out of eleven with one acting winner. Not great.

Best Film
UP IN THE AIR

Top Ten Films
(In alphabetical order) AN EDUCATION, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, INVICTUS, THE MESSENGER, A SERIOUS MAN, STAR TREK, UP, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

I keep forgetting how much people liked 500 Days of Summer. Note to self: must say more about what's wrong with this film -- you've got to do a bit of slapping down occasionally. Up in the Air's victory isn't a surprise, but the inclusion of Star Trek and Where the Wild Things Are kind of is. I think some people are expecting fireworks when the new ten-wide Best Picture Oscar category is announced but I still think there's going to be a drone middle-of-the-road set of bait devoid of much interest, perhaps with the exception of Inglourious Basterds. Good news for An Education and The Messenger (each hoping to be included in that ten) but there's a long way to go yet. I don't think Precious was ever going to be the old-school NBR's cup of tea, and that's definitely gonna be a problem at Oscar when it comes to voting for the winner (the new system favours less "offensive" films), but it's still very strong.

Best Foreign Language Film
A PROPHET

Top Five Foreign Films
(In alphabetical order) THE MAID, REVANCHE, SONG OF SPARROWS, THREE MONKEYS, THE WHITE RIBBON

So psyched for A Prophet. Not sure if The White Ribbon can make the Foreign Language lineup at Oscar. It's a very cold, difficult film to like, and if 4 Months didn't make it a couple of years ago then it doesn't bode well for Haneke's film.

Best Documentary
THE COVE

Top Five Documentaries
(In alphabetical order) BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY, CRUDE, FOOD, INC., GOOD HAIR, THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

I think The Cove is going to sweeeeep!

Top Independent Films
(In alphabetical order) AMREEKA, DISTRICT 9, GOODBYE SOLO, HUMPDAY, IN THE LOOP, JULIA, ME AND ORSON WELLES, MOON, SUGAR, TWO LOVERS

I find it really disheartening that In the Loop and Julia, two excellent films, are consigned to an Independent championing and clearly not taken seriously enough for the actual top ten, when trash like An Education is clogging up space.

Best Actor
GEORGE CLOONEY, Up In The Air; MORGAN FREEMAN, Invictus

So boring.

Best Actress
CAREY MULLIGAN, An Education

Apart from Mo'Nique she probably had the most buzz of anyone this year and yet people aren't taking her as seriously now. It's unfair because nobody is ever going to live up to that astronomical level of expectation and she's actually really great in An Education and comfortably inside my top five Leading Actresses of the year for the moment.

Best Supporting Actor
WOODY HARRELSON, The Messenger

Probably undervalued but the Globes Lead thing is something he really doesn't need right now. Sure, it might help you get noticed more, but category confusion is bad enough for the people with high-profile films, never mind when you have a tiny little critics darling. Not everyone can have that Amy Adams in Junebug fairytale.

Best Supporting Actress
ANNA KENDRICK, Up In The Air

Destined to be nominated and lose the Oscar.

Best Ensemble Cast
IT'S COMPLICATED

A way to reward Meryl? Alec Baldwin still has a chance (especially since he's hosting) but I reckon It's Complicated is gonna have to be a smash to get him in. I'm thinking he may even get Globe, SAG, and still lose out.

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor
JEREMY RENNER, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress
GABOUREY SIDIBE, Precious

I'd really like for Jeremy Renner to make the AMPAS shortlist but I've got a nagging feeling that he won't. Morgan Freeman has been looking a much weaker candidate in the last month but this has definitely helped his cause more than Jeremy's.

Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut
DUNCAN JONES, Moon; OREN MOVERMAN, The Messenger; MARC WEBB, (500) Days of Summer

Best Director
CLINT EASTWOOD, Invictus

Meh. Is Sam Rockwell still campaigning?

Best Adapted Screenplay
JASON REITMAN and SHELDON TURNER, Up In The Air

Best Original Screenplay
JOEL AND ETHAN COEN, A Serious Man

Best Animated Feature
UP

Special Filmmaking Achievement
WES ANDERSON, The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Doesn't this seem like a way to reward both? I liked Fantastic Mr. Fox so much more than Up.

William K. Everson Award For Film History
JEAN PICKER FIRSTENBERG

Freedom Of Expression
BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY; INVICTUS; THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

National Board of Review: Predictions

It's very scary that a year has lapsed since the last time the National Board of Review announced their ten favourite films of 2008. Last year was uninspired (in truth I've yet to be inspired by an NBR choice) with a typical bout of love for Clint Eastwood and Edward Zwick, as well as a ball-rolling canonisation of Slumdog Millionaire. My prediction score last year was six out of eleven (top ten plus winner) and none of the acting winners. Hoping for an improvement...

Best Picture: Bright Star

The NBR rewarded almost every British period drama with its big prize in the eighties and nineties -- A Passage To India, A Room With a View, Howard's End, Sense and Sensibility -- and followed that up with wins for British period drama's like Quills, The Hours, and Finding Neverland. Recent years have seen them embrace more divisive films but I think it's time they returned to unspoken love and wistful landscape. Bright Star needs this endorsement and I reckon Jane Campion's film will get it.

Best Director: Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Wild guess. Apparently a film with mass appeal and something inoffensively charming. Jason Reitman is building up a fanbase. Expecting major losses to Precious and The Hurt Locker in the critics awards so a mention here would be valuable.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated/Julie & Julia

I don't love Meryl's Julia turn but it has many fans. Word is she's dynamite in the Meyers film too. Looks ominous.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney - Up in the Air

If he can win for Michael Clayton he can definitely win for this.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Marion Cotillard - Nine/Public Enemies

Two juicy roles and they really like to reward stars for multiple turns. If this happens and they continue to campaign Marion as lead the two Actress races are going to be really interesting.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles

Why not?

Top Ten Films:

The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Julie and Julia
The Last Station
Nine
Precious
Public Enemies
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Getting Back to the Present

I've just realised that aside from a paragraph on The White Ribbon I haven't really discussed anything current for a while, such is the never-ending quest through film heritage. My eighties and early-nineties viewing is pretty sparse so I've been trying to remedy that, trawling through dreck like Places in the Heart, Agnes of God, and the preposterously simple disaster movie When Time Ran Out. There have however been rays of light, and I'm struggling to believe why Kathleen Turner couldn't manage an Oscar mention for either Romancing the Stone or Crimes of Passion, which I watched the other day and enjoyed immensely.

But back to the present, and a few words on some 2009 films I've seen of late.

An Education
Directed by Lone Scherfig
Starring: Carey Mulligan, Peter Sarsgaard, Alfred Molina
Grade: C

Carey Mulligan's Jenny is the perfect protagonist because her apparent telepathy with the audience allows her to voice exactly what we're thinking when we're thinking it. Nick Hornby's one-track screenplay has the fall-from-grace of a Max Ophuls film but none of the style. So many of the characters are hypocrites that it makes Jenny look positively heavenly, and so berating education with parental obsessiveness didn't do much to convince me that Jenny is capable of contravening the moral expectations of the audience at all, never mind ditching "an education".

Fish Tank
Directed by Andrea Arnold
Starring: Katie Jarvis, Michael Fassbender, Kierston Wareing
Grade: B-

Teenager Mia is fucked in more ways than one in this film, seemingly unable to escape a failed education and deprivated working-class existence, not to mention her cherry-plucking at the hands of a rugged Michael Fassbender. Her urban dance dreams are completely convincing, and valuable in terms of exposure and social aspiration, but the attempts to demonstrate how she's craving freedom (her quest to let loose a shackled horse in particular) are disappointingly blatant. Arnold also expects us to be grateful that a child survives in a random act of melodrama that feels very unnecessary.

Harry Brown
Directed by Daniel Barber
Starring: Michael Caine, Emily Mortimer, Jack O'Connell
Grade: F

Perhaps the most politically abhorrent film I've ever seen (and that's saying something), straight out of the Eden Lake sensationalist mould of British "thrillers" attempting to right the wrongs of the country. This makes Neil Jordan's The Brave One look like a world-beater, coming to a similarly immoral conclusion and scattering some grotesque characters in order to hammer home its points in shock-tactic style. It also polarises World warfare with Street warfare. War is war people.

Paranormal Activity
Directed by Oren Peli

Starring: Katie Featherston, Micah Sloat, Mark Fredrichs
Grade: B-

Major kudos for creating such a compelling film on a miniscule budget and for a while Activity does a great job of mixing the couple's relationship with the anticipation of what's to come and the levels of skepticism that emerge. It'd be wrong to say that it isn't scary but it does feel a lot tamer than The Blair Witch Project (to which it has been compared) felt ten years earlier. Rather like last year's Cloverfield I don't think it can sustain its video-camera concept and draws attention to it more than it ever needs to.

Up
Directed by Pete Docter
Starring: Ed Asner, Jordan Nagai, Bob Peterson
Grade: B-

Cars was kiddie-Pixar and as many montages and ruminations about old age won't really change the fact that Up is the same kind of thing. It really doesn't look like Pixar made it at all. The attempts to be cute are more akin to the Ice Age series, which I like but for its modest purpose as an educational heart-warming piece rather than anything else. Maybe we've been spoiled but the level of insight and entertainment in Up is probably lower than in any of their other films, with the exception of Cars.

Actress Profile: Maggie McNamara in The Moon is Blue (1953)

When I caught Otto Preminger's The Moon is Blue last month on Youtube it was mainly for Maggie McNamara, who managed a Best Actress nomination in 1953 and who I really didn't know much about, having not seen her in anything else. She actually only did four films after The Moon is Blue (her debut) and sadly overdosed at the relatively young age of 49.

This stagy comedy sees McNamara pursued by a devilishly handsome William Holden and his would-be father-in-law David Niven, one of which wants to bed her, the other to marry her. She is required to dash off some cracking dialogue in which she's very candid about sex and foreplay while simultaneously declaring her unwillingness to engage in both. Contradictory perhaps, but McNamara juggles the character's complexities with ease, and for a debut it's a remarkably assured turn, laden with some wonderful comic timing and truly inspired acting decisions.

McNamara is a tiny girl, inoffensive, not particularly pretty, but she has an undeniable presence in the film and a warm demeanor, even when she's dashing off cutting quips and generally slapping down the lapdog-style attentions of her two suitors. As the piece was originally a play (penned and adapted by F. Hugh Herbert) Maggie isn't always framed like a leading lady and lingers in the background for pockets of the action, so it's kind of surprising that she managed to emerge as such an awards favourite. The role is cute but that particular feat was definitely garnered by the performance.

If There's Anything He's a Sucker For, It's Licorice

Sixty years since Adam's Rib, wouldn't you know? Sixty years since Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn went to battle in the ultimate battle-of-the sexes. I slate Tracy a fair bit on this blog but I'll give him his due here, he's wonderful, and I've yet to see a better performance from 1949.