Best Picture (Drama)
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
I don't know if Avatar has been around long enough to have managed a nomination here, which is why I'm not predicting it. These five all seem pretty strong.
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
500 Days of Summer
Julie & Julia
A Serious Man
Alternate: It's Complicated
I think that 500 Days is too well-loved to miss out, and The Hangover too was a smash hit. It's Complicated maybe has the timing but it's quite a strong category this year. We'll see.
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Alternate: James Cameron - Avatar
I almost dropped QT for Cameron and then decided against it.
Best Actor in a Leading Role (Drama)
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Alternate: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
They love Johnny Depp and Renner isn't a name. Will surely make SAG though?
Best Actress in a Leading Role (Drama)
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces
Cruz has an amazing amount of star power at the moment. This movie came out ages ago and has very little buzz, but Bright Star and The Last Station don't have much at the moment either, so she could replace one of either Cornish or Mirren.
Best Actor in a Leading Role (Comedy)
Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jnr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 500 Days of Summer
Alternate: Robert De Niro - Everybody's Fine
Baldwin seems like a co-lead, and he's been nominated by the Globes in that category over on the TV side of things. Everyone else seems good to go, or as De Niro might put it: everybody's fine.
Best Actress in a Leading Role (Comedy)
Amy Adams - Julie & Julia
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Alternate: Zooey Deschanel - 500 Days of Summer
Nobody's been talking about Pfeiffer for a while but they used to love her, and she's pretty luscious in the film. Deschanel's handy but not a likeable character.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Alternate: Alfred Molina - An Education
Will they ignore the Harrelson lead thing?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mariah Carey - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Alternate: Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
If they can nominate Cruise for Tropic Thunder they can nominate Carey for Precious.