Final Oscar Predictions: Part II

Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz in Nine
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo'Nique in Precious

My Preference: Mo'Nique
My Prediction: Mo'Nique

This has been done for a long time now. I'm kind of disappointed how this category turned out because Samantha Morton, Melanie Laurent, Julianne Moore, and Marion Cotillard are all better than at least 60% of these women.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon in Invictus
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

My Preference: Christoph Waltz
My Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Completely deserves to win and I think he's in the right category. I expected more of a rally for Plummer's career honour, but that never really materialised. I suppose a nomination is honour enough.

Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

My Preference: Carey Mulligan
My Prediction: Sandra Bullock

It seems as if Bullock will win, since The Blind Side gained enough momentum to claim a Best Picture spot, and mostly on the back of her performance. Everyone who voted for it will vote for her, and all the Precious fans will vote Sidibe, which doesn't really leave room for Meryl Streep's third Oscar. Possible fireworks here, though.

Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

My Preference: Colin Firth
My Prediction: Jeff Bridges

One of those 'Paul Newman in Colour of Money' type wins that nobody really minds, even though you know it's not for the performance. There's usually at least one a year.

Animated Feature Film

Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

My Preference: Coraline
My Prediction: Up

Pixar won't win the big one, but a nomination there and a win here is hefty reward for a film that was nowhere close to being their best.

Foreign Language Film

Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
A Prophet (France)
The Secret of Her Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

My Preference: A Prophet
My Prediction: The Secret of Her Eyes

This category is notoriously unpredictable due to the alternative voting methods. A Prophet and The White Ribbon are films by very reputable filmmakers, but they're both heavy, heavy films, that I'm surprised managed to turn enough people on to get included here anyway. Argentina's The Secret of Her Eyes has been talked about for a while now, and people seemingly like it, so why not?

Directing

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Preference: Kathryn Bigelow
My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow

This has to happen, doesn't it?

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

My Preference: In the Loop
My Prediction: Up in the Air

It's gonna be close between Air and Precious but I reckon they'll hand it to Reitman's film, given that it won't win anything else.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

It could go to Inglourious but I'm not so sure.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

I have to believe that Locker wins this, because if it loses to Avatar I'm gonna be inconsolable. Outside shot for Inglourious since it's a much easier watch than these two and has become a viable option.

A Look Ahead To SAG Ensemble

A quick word on the BAFTA nominations, which were generally pretty predictable, but for the rejection of both the BRITISH Emily Blunt and the BRITISH Helen Mirren, in favour of the IRISH Saoirse Ronan and the FRENCH Audrey Tatou. Fear not, Emily Blunt... in a similarly delapidated 2005 field Keira Knightley managed an Oscar nod despite missing SAG and BAFTA. It could still happen.

This year's SAG ceremony happens tonight, a Saturday. I'm weighing up whether this is a positive move for me or not, given that I'm at work at 6am on Sundays but really didn't wanna drink all weekend. Regardless, you'd expect easy wins for Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges, with a Bullock-Streep tussle on the side. I have to concede that I found Sandra Bullock's performance much more impressive than Streep's, but I wouldn't really be disappointed if Meryl won, and I think that neither of them are the best of the five.


Best Acting Ensemble

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious


With the absence of Up in the Air (surprising) and Avatar (not so surprising) from the SAG Ensemble lineup, it's looking like an open contest. If anybody needs to win this it's probably The Hurt Locker, since it's threatening to become this year's critics darling and not the big contender for Oscars it looked a month ago. Though maybe Nine needs it more, since it looks dead in the water for a Best Picture Oscar nomination and may not even get an Acting nomination since the studio have gone all-out for Marion Cotillard in Lead.

I'd say Inglourious Basterds is the frontrunner due to its Awards Season prominence and big cast, but what of An Education? It has great all-around acting and won't win in any other category. Precious is the most "serious" film (especially in terms of acting).

Deserves To Win: Inglourious Basterds
My Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Brief SAG Reaction

Only two real surprises:

1) The rather random inclusion of Diane Kruger in Supporting Actress

Everybody loves the Basterds this Awards season!. On the one hand I think it's a fun and occasionally delicious performance, and on the other I find it a real shame that Melanie Laurent was campaigned by the Weinsteins in the Leading category, as she clearly would have got in here if they'd settled for Supporting. Laurent and Kruger remain outside shots, but the inevitable split that will occur from this probably means that neither will make it and the last spot will be taken up by either Julianne Moore, Academy favourite Samantha Morton, or the mishandled Marion Cotillard. At least that's my take on the situation.

And while we're on it, if Nine is going to be the worst-reviewed film to get a Best Picture nomination this decade, is it really going to get this many major nominations? It seems comparable with Memoirs of a Geisha four years ago, which got equally poor reviews and probably would have managed a spot in a ten-wide field, given its six nods. None of those, however, were for the big six categories, and so it seems to me that Marion Cotillard is on kind of shaky ground given that she now seems behind Cruz and is saddled with a film that people simply don't like? Nine will probably win the Globe but I can't see it gaining any real momentum before the Oscar ballots are posted.

2) The ensemble snub of Up in the Air

While early precursors suggested Up in the Air had enough to emerge as a solid favourite the support for it clearly doesn't rival that of previous BP winners, and it certainly seems to be dwindling under the euphoric love for The Hurt Locker. At the moment it seems like a three-way tussle between Reitman's film, Bigelow's critical favourite, and James Cameron's beastly, cinema-altering production. Say what you want for the ten-wide category but it's feeling very nostalgic to those forties Best Picture winners (I'm looking at you Rebecca and Casablanca) which only managed one or two other victories. That's possibly why Avatar might have the edge, given that it's likely to win multiple effects prizes, but at the moment it seems pretty wide open.

Golden Globe Predictions, 2009

Time to predict tomorrow's Golden Globe nominations, which are occasionally inspired and usually much more interesting than other nominees lists, given that they actually acknowledge comedy acting. Here are my predictions with some brief justifications:-

Best Picture (Drama)

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Alternate: Avatar

I don't know if Avatar has been around long enough to have managed a nomination here, which is why I'm not predicting it. These five all seem pretty strong.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

500 Days of Summer
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
Nine
A Serious Man

Alternate: It's Complicated

I think that 500 Days is too well-loved to miss out, and The Hangover too was a smash hit. It's Complicated maybe has the timing but it's quite a strong category this year. We'll see.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: James Cameron - Avatar

I almost dropped QT for Cameron and then decided against it.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Drama)

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Alternate: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

They love Johnny Depp and Renner isn't a name. Will surely make SAG though?

Best Actress in a Leading Role (Drama)

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Alternate: Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces

Cruz has an amazing amount of star power at the moment. This movie came out ages ago and has very little buzz, but Bright Star and The Last Station don't have much at the moment either, so she could replace one of either Cornish or Mirren.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Comedy)

Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jnr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 500 Days of Summer

Alternate: Robert De Niro - Everybody's Fine

Baldwin seems like a co-lead, and he's been nominated by the Globes in that category over on the TV side of things. Everyone else seems good to go, or as De Niro might put it: everybody's fine.

Best Actress in a Leading Role (Comedy)

Amy Adams - Julie & Julia
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Alternate: Zooey Deschanel - 500 Days of Summer

Nobody's been talking about Pfeiffer for a while but they used to love her, and she's pretty luscious in the film. Deschanel's handy but not a likeable character.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Alternate: Alfred Molina - An Education

Will they ignore the Harrelson lead thing?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Mariah Carey - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Alternate: Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air

If they can nominate Cruise for Tropic Thunder they can nominate Carey for Precious.