Final Oscar Predictions: Part II

Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz in Nine
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo'Nique in Precious

My Preference: Mo'Nique
My Prediction: Mo'Nique

This has been done for a long time now. I'm kind of disappointed how this category turned out because Samantha Morton, Melanie Laurent, Julianne Moore, and Marion Cotillard are all better than at least 60% of these women.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon in Invictus
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

My Preference: Christoph Waltz
My Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Completely deserves to win and I think he's in the right category. I expected more of a rally for Plummer's career honour, but that never really materialised. I suppose a nomination is honour enough.

Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

My Preference: Carey Mulligan
My Prediction: Sandra Bullock

It seems as if Bullock will win, since The Blind Side gained enough momentum to claim a Best Picture spot, and mostly on the back of her performance. Everyone who voted for it will vote for her, and all the Precious fans will vote Sidibe, which doesn't really leave room for Meryl Streep's third Oscar. Possible fireworks here, though.

Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

My Preference: Colin Firth
My Prediction: Jeff Bridges

One of those 'Paul Newman in Colour of Money' type wins that nobody really minds, even though you know it's not for the performance. There's usually at least one a year.

Animated Feature Film

Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

My Preference: Coraline
My Prediction: Up

Pixar won't win the big one, but a nomination there and a win here is hefty reward for a film that was nowhere close to being their best.

Foreign Language Film

Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
A Prophet (France)
The Secret of Her Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

My Preference: A Prophet
My Prediction: The Secret of Her Eyes

This category is notoriously unpredictable due to the alternative voting methods. A Prophet and The White Ribbon are films by very reputable filmmakers, but they're both heavy, heavy films, that I'm surprised managed to turn enough people on to get included here anyway. Argentina's The Secret of Her Eyes has been talked about for a while now, and people seemingly like it, so why not?

Directing

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Preference: Kathryn Bigelow
My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow

This has to happen, doesn't it?

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

My Preference: In the Loop
My Prediction: Up in the Air

It's gonna be close between Air and Precious but I reckon they'll hand it to Reitman's film, given that it won't win anything else.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

It could go to Inglourious but I'm not so sure.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

My Preference: The Hurt Locker
My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

I have to believe that Locker wins this, because if it loses to Avatar I'm gonna be inconsolable. Outside shot for Inglourious since it's a much easier watch than these two and has become a viable option.

Final Oscar Predictions: Part I

Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: Avatar

At one point it was looking as if Avatar had every Tech award in the bag, but it seems that The Hurt Locker still poses a challenge in that regard. However, the competition for James Cameron's film in this category seems pretty limp. Nothing stands out as a huge feat, and so this should be an easy get.

Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

My Prediction: Avatar

This could go to either Ackroyd or Berger, but I suspect that Fiore will take it for Avatar, since it's the "prettiest" and feels the most visual.

Costume Design

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: The Young Victoria

Although I think every other designer in this line-up did a better job than Sandy Powell in 2009 The Young Victoria has come at just the right time to emerge as the British period winner that frequently pops up here.

Documentary Feature

Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

My Prediction: The Cove

It's March of the Penguins all over again. How can you compete with the cute dolphins? Regardless of that, The Cove is pretty devastatingly effective when it wants to be and will complete its sweep on Sunday.

Documentary (Short Subject)

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit à la Berlin

My Prediction: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

I've found it's best to go for the most sympathetic, humanist option in this category. The tears have me sold.

Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Again this seems like a battle between the "big two", but The Hurt Locker's editing is much more frantic and obvious so I reckon it's got the upper hand.

Makeup

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

My Prediction: Il Divo

There isn't really an obvious winner in this category so I'm going to go for Il Divo. Its cosmetics clearly has admirers so why not?

Music (Original Score)

Avatar
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

My Prediction: Up

Tough call since The Hurt Locker's surprise inclusion here. Giacchino's seems much cuter, and there's no other obvious winner so he could coast through to a win based on the love for Wall-E last year.

Music (Original Song)

Almost There, The Princess and the Frog
Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
Loin de Paname, Paris 36
Take It All, Nine
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

My Prediction: The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

It could be the Paris 36 song, but I'm still thinking this.

Short Film (Animated)

French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
Logorama
The Lady and the Reaper
A Matter of Loaf and Death

My Prediction: A Matter of Loaf and Death

They love Wallace and Gromit.

Short Film (Live Action)

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

My Prediction: The Door

About a woman grieving for her dead daughter.

Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

My Prediction: Avatar

Loudest.

Sound Mixing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

My Prediction: Avatar

Ditto.

Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

My Prediction: Avatar

Duh.

Blind......Side

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Prediction Score: 8/10

And the story of the year is clearly The Blind Side. I was guffawed at both hearing it mentioned and hearing it cheered. This is a film with only one real redeeming quality, and she's getting enough attention as it is. Aside from that, I'm not disappointed that District 9 is in the list, since it's at least a lot gutsier than Invictus or 500 Days of Summer.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I'm really not a fan of this list. Bigelow and Tarantino were both great, but the others? And Lee Daniels has to go down as the worst Director nominee for a long while.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Prediction Score: 5/5

Standard. Pleased for Jeremy and Colin.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Prediction Score: 5/5

The Young Victoria's strong showing in the techs may suggest that Blunt wasn't far away, but The Last Station does scream "BAIT!" so it's hardly surprising that Mirren was able to hold on.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I think I've probably already seen the best two performances (Harrelson and Waltz) but I'm generally pleased by this lineup.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Prediction Score: 3/5

It was a bit of a lottery up until the end, but I'm especially shocked that Samantha Morton couldn't manage to break into this five, given that The Messenger got a screenplay nomination and her role is exactly what Oscar likes. It's nice that Maggie Gyllenhaal finally has a nomination, though I'm not hearing too many people crow about her. Marion Cotillard gave two great performances this year and got shafted.

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”

Prediction Score: 4/5

I'm absoloutely delighted that In the Loop is nominated.

Best Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

Prediction Score: 4/5

Ditto for The Messenger. They really hate James Cameron's dialogue, don't they?

Best Animated Feature Film
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up”

I'm sure 95% of people were like me and responded with a puzzled "Eh?" when The Secret of Kells was announced. I like that they so obviously saw all of the options.

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami” (Israel)
“The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)


Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“The Hurt Locker”
“The White Ribbon”

Best Costume Design
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”

Best Makeup
“Il Divo”
“Star Trek”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Music (Original Score)
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Up”

Best Music (Original Song)
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″
“Take it All” from “Nine”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Up”

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

Best Documentary Feature
“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove”
“Food, Inc.”
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
“Which Way Home”

Best Documentary Short
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
“The Last Campaign of Booth Gardener”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Rabbit a la Berlin”

Best Short Film (Animated)
“French Roast”
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
“The Lady and the Reaper”
“Logorama”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death”

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“The Door”
“Instead of Abracadabra”
“Kavi”
“Miracle Fish”
“The New Tenants”

Brief SAG Reaction

Only two real surprises:

1) The rather random inclusion of Diane Kruger in Supporting Actress

Everybody loves the Basterds this Awards season!. On the one hand I think it's a fun and occasionally delicious performance, and on the other I find it a real shame that Melanie Laurent was campaigned by the Weinsteins in the Leading category, as she clearly would have got in here if they'd settled for Supporting. Laurent and Kruger remain outside shots, but the inevitable split that will occur from this probably means that neither will make it and the last spot will be taken up by either Julianne Moore, Academy favourite Samantha Morton, or the mishandled Marion Cotillard. At least that's my take on the situation.

And while we're on it, if Nine is going to be the worst-reviewed film to get a Best Picture nomination this decade, is it really going to get this many major nominations? It seems comparable with Memoirs of a Geisha four years ago, which got equally poor reviews and probably would have managed a spot in a ten-wide field, given its six nods. None of those, however, were for the big six categories, and so it seems to me that Marion Cotillard is on kind of shaky ground given that she now seems behind Cruz and is saddled with a film that people simply don't like? Nine will probably win the Globe but I can't see it gaining any real momentum before the Oscar ballots are posted.

2) The ensemble snub of Up in the Air

While early precursors suggested Up in the Air had enough to emerge as a solid favourite the support for it clearly doesn't rival that of previous BP winners, and it certainly seems to be dwindling under the euphoric love for The Hurt Locker. At the moment it seems like a three-way tussle between Reitman's film, Bigelow's critical favourite, and James Cameron's beastly, cinema-altering production. Say what you want for the ten-wide category but it's feeling very nostalgic to those forties Best Picture winners (I'm looking at you Rebecca and Casablanca) which only managed one or two other victories. That's possibly why Avatar might have the edge, given that it's likely to win multiple effects prizes, but at the moment it seems pretty wide open.

Top 25 Most Anticipated 2009 Releases: Part Two [10-1]

10. Adoration
Director: Atom Egoyan
Starring: Scott Speedman
Release: May
Sony Classics

I adore The Sweet Hereafter and so anything by Egoyan I await with baited breath. Scott Speedman in the lead is hardly assuring but he was a convincing victim in The Strangers. I hope it's released somewhere in my vicinity.

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9. Up
Animated
Release: May
Walt Disney

Pixar have reached a rather unprecedented level of consistency, and have earned our attention for years to come. I found Ratatouille and Cars both a tad disappointing (if endearing), but let's hope that this is a winner like last year's space adventure.

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8. Antichrist
Director: Lars Von Trier
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Charlotte Gainsbourg
Release Date: Autumn
Unknown

Try to ignore that the plot sounds a little like Godsend. Fascinatingly Dafoe and Gainsbourg are the only cast members listed. Von Trier's Manderlay has waned considerably in my mind and this seems like a welcome change of scenery.

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7. The Limits of Control
Director: Jim Jarmusch
Starring: Tilda Swinton, Bill Murray, Gael Garcia Bernal, John Hurt
Release: May
Focus Features

A fascinating, brilliant quartet of Actors. Jim Jarmusch going back to Ghost Dog-style? Tilda Swinton in a leadish role?

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6. The Box
Director: Richard Kelly
Starring: Cameron Diaz, James Marsden, Frank Langella
Release Date: November
Warner Bros

Richard Kelly is nothing if not audacious. This story of a couple who find a box that grants them wealth, only for its opening to become fatal for someone they do not know sounds crazy but really fun, and I'm intrigued as to how well Diaz and Marsden will work as a couple.

5. Nine
Director: Rob Marshall
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, Sophia Loren, Marion Cotillard, Fergie
Release Date: December
The Weinstein Co.

I liked Federico Fellini's 8 1/2. This musical based upon it features the best collection of Actors in a film this year (20+ Oscar nominations between them, 6 wins) and a good director -- even if he totally owes me after ruining a promising novel in 2006.

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4. The Countess
Director: Julie Delpy
Starring: Julie Delpy, William Hurt, Anamaria Marinca
Release: TBA
Unknown

Doesn't this character (a Hungarian 16th-century countess who bathed in the blood of virgins to maintain her youth) seem a juicy kind of wonderful? Delpy's debut directorial effort, 2 Days in Paris was great, and I'll love her forever for being Celine. Also love Bill Hurt, and I'm interested to see how Marinca will follow up her excellent performance last year.

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3. Splice
Director: Vincenzo Natali
Starring: Adrien Brody, Sarah Polley
Release Date: September
Senator Film

Vincenzo Natali's 1997 sci-fi/horror Cube is brilliant. Adrien Brody is brilliant. Sarah Polley is brilliant. Sci-fi/spirituality (if done well) is brilliant. I can't wait until September.

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2. The Tree of Life
Director: Terrence Malick
Starring: Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Fiona Shaw
Release Date: TBA
Unknown

The plotline doesn't sound enthralling but the same could be said for Malick's Thin Red Line and New World, both of which are not my cup of tea in essence but captivating in execution. The master returns.


1. Avatar
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Release Date: December
20th Century Fox

This does seem like the year Science Fiction comes back. I left out a ton of movies in this countdown (Moon, Star Trek, Eden Log, Pandorum, The Surrogates) that fit into that ilk, though I know that it's a notoriously difficult genre to do well. Many feel that Steven Spielberg is the master of the blockbuster, but in my eyes it's this man -- Terminator 2, Aliens, True Lies, Titanic -- nobody does it better. The last time Cameron spent $200m on a film it swept the world Oscars world, and I don't see any reason why this can't be the decade's best.