Final Oscar Predictions 3/3 [The Big Six]

Best Picture:

“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction: “Argo”
My preference: “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

When a film wins support from the producers’, directors’, actors’, and writers’ guilds you can pretty much call it over. Affleck’s director snub has definitely helped the film, but probably only to solidify its appeal as a mainstream crowd-pleaser, unlikely to be looked upon fondly in years to come, but nevertheless easy to anoint as a winner of the 2012 crop.

Best Director:

Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Prediction: Michael Haneke, “Amour”
My preference: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

It’s probably foolhardy to choose Haneke over Spielberg, Lee, or Russell, who seem to have stronger films. The lack of a particular frontrunner helps the Austrian, who you can imagine people who don’t even love “Amour” might still vote for, as a ‘cool’ alternative pick, and as he’s the most auteurial of the five men. That’s how I see it, anyway.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
My preference: Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Wishful thinking makes me want to predict Riva, who I suspect is close but will likely lose out to the familiar ‘star is born’ narrative surrounding Jennifer Lawrence. If Lawrence does win it’ll be a shame, since she can and will do so much better in the future, with a character she has a stronger handle on than Tiffany in “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
My preference, Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams, “The Master”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
My preference: Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Prediction: Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
My preference: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

I feel as if “Lincoln” has very little momentum, and Christoph Waltz has the best role of the five men here. A leading one, but since when have the Academy cared about category fraud? There is an outside chance that they’ll give Robert De Niro the Oscar, as a reward for finally doing something worthwhile, but the amount of lame comedic films he’s been in recently leads me to believe that when he does win a third Oscar it’ll be for a dramatic performance.

Final Oscar Predictions 2/3 [Screenplays & Techs]

Best Original Screenplay:

“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction: “Django Unchained”
My preference: “Moonrise Kingdom”

As much as dialogue is an important aspect of a screenplay, it isn’t the be-all-and-end-all; If Tarantino wins this award it will be for writing engaging, twisty monologues, and crafting very little out of them. It’s a more impressionable, obvious script than its nominees, which is why I think it's going the way of “Django Unchained,” but it’s also possible that this could be the category where Michael Haneke is personally rewarded, or that WGA victor Mark Boal (is “Zero Dark Thirty” in danger of going home empty-handed on Sunday?!) could pull off a victory.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Prediction: “Argo”
My preference: “Lincoln”

I accept that this is going to be an evening of spreading the wealth between a number of films, but if you’re assuming that “Argo” is going to win Best Picture (after internal debate, I have) then you also have to view it as a very strong contender for the Screenplay Oscar, too. It seemed unthinkable that Tony Kushner would lose this prize a month or so ago, but now it’s definitely looking that way. I actually think that Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook” script has a better chance of toppling Terrio at this point, as ‘comedic’ films are more likely to be rewarded in the screenplay category than any other.

Best Cinematography:

“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

Prediction: “Life of Pi”
My preference: “Life of Pi”

Despite the goodwill for Roger Deakins after his long winless streak with Oscar, that trend is going to continue. When voters look for cinematography they look for big, flashy visuals, and “Life of Pi” provides them spectacularly.

Best Film Editing:

“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction: “Argo”
My preference: “Silver Linings Playbook”

In recent years the Academy has shown flexibility with the Editing category, handing the prize to non-Best Picture nominees “Black Hawk Down,” “The Bourne Ultimatum,” and “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” This year all of the nominees are Best Picture nominees, so it makes sense to go for the assumed most popular, “Argo,” which has the added benefit of an international story with shifting settings.

Best Production Design:

“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”

Prediction: “Life of Pi”
My preference: “Lincoln”

This one could go a number of ways but going back through this category’s recent history has illuminated the fact that CGI is becoming melded with production design, the win for “Avatar” an unthinkably bold shift towards technological design. That’s why I’m picking “Life of Pi,” which might just get this prize off the back of looking great overall.

Best Costume Design:

“Anna Karenina”
“Les Miserables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

Prediction: “Anna Karenina”
My preference: “Mirror Mirror”

Best Make Up:

“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”

Prediction: “Les Miserables”
My preference: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

I’ve been back and forth on this one since ‘The Hobbit’ seems so clearly the film with the most technical make up (the cosmetics in ‘Les Mis’ are fine, but hardly groundbreaking) but it just feels right to go for the Best Picture nominee of the three, and they did at least do a good job of making Hathaway look dreadful.

Best Sound Mixing:

“Argo”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

Prediction: “Les Miserables”
My preference: “Life of Pi”

Best Sound Editing:

“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Prediction: “Skyfall”
My preference: “Zero Dark Thirty”

I intended to go with “Skyfall” for both sound awards, thinking specifically of when “The Bourne Identity” took both prizes home a few years ago. But if even “Dreamgirls” won Sound Mixing without a ton of support from the Academy then you’ve got to figure that “Les Miserables” has this one sewn up, despite the Sound Mixing in that film being questionable at best.

Best Visual Effects:

“The Avengers”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

Prediction: “Life of Pi”
My preference: “Life of Pi”