Late in the Day: SAG Predictions 2010

I didn't predict the Golden Globes because -- let's face it -- the HFPA are a bit of a minefield. Oscar prognostication really solidifies with the Screen Actors Guild's nominations, announced later today.

BEST ENSEMBLE

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The Social Network

The Town

Winter's Bone

Alternate: The King's Speech

They've made some terrible choices in the past - not least in 2007 with those "American Gangster" and "3:10 to Yuma" nominations. "The Town" seems to be on everybody's ensemble lists this year, and everybody in it (bar Rebecca Hall) is screaming "Look at me! Look at me!". "The Fighter" and "The Kids Are All Right" have tasty-looking cast lists, and could well grab three acting nominations a piece (if they're lucky.) Picking "Winter's Bone" over "The King's Speech" looks a lil silly, but the latter is losing a bit of steam, and, besides Colin Firth (who'll win here anyway) is anybody bothered about the acting?

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

Alternate: Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

This one's between seven; all of the above plus Mark Wahlberg, who has yet to receive a sole SAG nomination despite other major Awards notices in "Boogie Nights" and "The Departed". You would expect Robert Duvall to get a lot of votes from the veterans of the organisation (arguably more of an advantage than he would have in the Academy), and they've just given Bridges a prize, so leaving him off ballots isn't that much of a guilty move. Gosling has two SAG nominations in the category, and Eisenberg has the biggest buzz of the moment.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Alternate: Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

In a year this constricted in terms of actual performances noticed (isn't that any year I hear you ask), wouldn't one be tempted to go with what you know? If you're giving Annette Bening her due, and you liked "The Kids Are All Right", then why not throw a bone to Julianne too? After all, the choices beyond that (unless we're talking vote siphoners) seem fairly slim. I think the other four are fairly locked up, given Kidman's renowned professionalism, and the fact she's worked with so many people in the organisation.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"

Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Alternate: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Definitely a considerable chance of Mark Ruffalo getting snubbed, but doesn't this feel like an actors movie? I have doubts about Renner's staying power, considering that it's a pretty familiar role in a very mainstream film, but he has momentum on his side, and the performance itself is very decent.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Alternate: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"

Are four of the five spots locked up already, with the "Fighter" girls doing so well? I'm going with Steinfeld because SAG seem to like younger actors in the Supporting categories. Wiest is a living legend, but is she more on the side of AMPAS nostalgia, ready to steal in come January?

Second Hand Unwinds: Oscar Predictions For 2010

Excuse the near three-week absence from posting, but I've just started a new job and am thus busy adjusting to a sensibly alien sleeping pattern. I've decided to plug the gap between reviews (and there will be reviews; of starlets playing up to new surroundings, and conspiracies within the heart of Europe) by venturing back towards the familiar path of Oscar prognostication. It's still all harmless fun at this point, but Awards season is upon us, so this seems like as opportune a moment as any.

Best Picture

"127 Hours"

"Another Year"

"For Colored Girls..."

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right

"The King's Speech"

"Made in Dagenham"

"Secretariat"

"The Social Network"

"The Way Back"

Alternates: "The Fighter", "Toy Story 3", "Rabbit Hole"

"Inception" and "Toy Story 3" are popular, and got the fiscal ball rolling in 2010, but they still go against the grain of Oscar's general middle-brow gaze. I think that Nolan's film will probably have enough support to gain entry to the year's "top ten", but I'm not yet convinced that animated features will necessarily broach Best Picture regularly in an extended field. Why not "For Colored Girls..." then? A film about a repressed minority, with an all-star cast, and following on the coattails of last year's "Precious".

Best Director

Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"

David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

Mike Leigh, "Another Year"

Peter Weir, "The Way Back"

Alternates: Christopher Nolan, "Inception", Lisa Cholodenko, "The Kids Are All Right", The Coen Bros, "True Grit"

It appears foolhardy to forecast another snub for Nolan, but if he can get subbed for Stephen Daldry and Ron Howard in 2008, then it's at all possible he could miss out for just as dense a film this year, when the competition is stiffer.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Anne Hathaway, "Love and Other Drugs"

Diane Lane, "Secretariat"

Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

Alternates: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan", Hilary Swank, "Conviction", Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

A mixture of the prolific, reputable, burgeoning, and one-time-only nominees that often occurs in this category. Natalie Portman is brilliant in "Black Swan", but it's dark and her character has serious issues with sexuality that are bound to put off certainly the stauncher Academy members. I'd be very sad to see Sally Hawkins ousted from the lineup for another Hathaway/downtrodden rural American double-team, but she's only likely to get in if the film is BIG. Even if Julianne Moore is campaigned as Supporting in Kids, I think a lead nomination is a very legitimate outcome, given that maybe a vote for one automatically pertains to include the other?

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"

Alternates: Robert Duvall, "Get Low", Jeff Bridges, "True Grit", Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Version"

I'm betting that at least 40-80% of these have death scenes, which always appears to be a plus in the Best Actor category. Ryan Gosling has the luxury (?) of another December release, while the others all have personal obstacles to overcome. If this is the five, and nobody really trumps the critics, then does Mark Wahlberg have a shot at glory?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Kimberly Elise, "For Colored Girls..."

Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"

Saoirse Ronan, "The Way Back"

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Alternates: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole", Whoopi Goldberg, "For Colored Girls...", Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

Having just seen Richardson's turn in Daggers, I'm not on board with a nomination. It's showboating of the most flagrant order, which is why Oscar might bite. Ronan already has one nomination and was dangerously poised last year to take over from faltering hopefuls. I'm thinking that "For Colored Girls..." will surely land a Supp Actress nominee, but who?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Ed Harris, "The Way Back"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Alternate: Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network", Sam Rockwell, "Conviction", Colin Farrell, "The Way Back"

Hawkes seems like a long shot, but if we're wading for contenders the likelihood of him landing up on critics lineups etc. is not that slim. Harris and Rush are strong supporting players who AMPAS already likes; Ruffalo stronger if you ask me, but so far shunned.

Best Original Screenplay

"Another Year"

"Inception"

"The Kids Are All Right"

"The King's Speech"

"Made In Dagenham"

Alternate: "The Fighter"

Best Adapted Screenplay

"127 Hours"

"For Colored Girls..."

"The Social Network"

"Thw Way Back"

"Winter's Bone"

Alternate: "Love and Other Drugs"