Every year I do this, and every year I do terribly. Apart from the odd Clint Eastwood mention, this is pretty much random guesswork.
My NBR Predictions:-
Predicted Top Ten:
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"The Way Back"
I don't think "Inception" will be as strong as some people seem to think, since it is rather difficult to keep track of. They're usually very conservative, which isn't exactly in line with "The Kids Are All Right", but the film has enough reinforcement of family values to ingratiate itself with voters. Part of the reasoning behind this list is prioritising films about old people and/or which contain sentiment. "Black Swan" seems a bit too out-there for this body's tastes.
Prediction: Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"
Alternate: Clint Eastwood, "Hereafter"
I almost put Eastwood, but Boyle will have the more popular, rousing film.
Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Alternate: Anne Hathaway, "Love and Other Drugs"
They have generally swayed towards the young and pretty in recent years; Portman has the buzz, but Hathaway the bait.
Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
Alternate: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
And generally stately men in this category. I suspect this might be one of the few precursors Duvall picks up.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"
Alternate: Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"
Their Supp Actress choices usually either wow me or dumbfound me. That Gong Li pick a few years ago was crazy-inspired.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"
Alternate: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
They like Rush, and I'm convinced that Hawkes will pick up precursor notices.
Best Ensemble Performance
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"
Alternate: "Of Gods and Men"