Screen Actors Guild Nominations, 2010

The Screen Actors Guild Nominations have been announced, and they don't include Lesley Manville, Michelle Williams, or Julianne Moore. Instead, SAG decided to bestow their fifth Best Actress nomination upon Oscar favourite Hilary Swank, who had seemed to be losing momentum after her film, "Conviction", didn't fare so well.

On the male side of things, the younger generation were predictably shafted in favour of stalwarts Bridges and Duvall. It'll be interesting to see whether those two lone rangers can carry that love to Oscar, or if Ryan Gosling can usurp one of them. There's also the issue of "The Fighter" emerging as a surprisingly strong contender for Mark Wahlberg this Awards Season.

I nearly correctly predicted a nomination for John Hawkes, but I'd be lying if I said that would be instead of Andrew Garfield. In my eyes, Mark Ruffalo and Jeremy Renner still look vulnerable, despite the former having a film that people clearly like. Mila Kunis continues to defy my expectations as Penelope Cruz did last year. It's not that I didn't think she was good -- I just didn't leave the screening of "Black Swan" thinking that she was in any way awards-worthy. But then that might be down to the other gazillion things rolling around in my head after that film finished.

The nominations:-


BEST ENSEMBLE

Black Swan

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Prediction Score: 3/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Prediction Score: 4/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Hilary Swank, "Conviction"

Prediction Score: 4/5

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Prediction Score: 4/5 + Alternate

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Prediction Score: 4/5

Late in the Day: SAG Predictions 2010

I didn't predict the Golden Globes because -- let's face it -- the HFPA are a bit of a minefield. Oscar prognostication really solidifies with the Screen Actors Guild's nominations, announced later today.

BEST ENSEMBLE

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The Social Network

The Town

Winter's Bone

Alternate: The King's Speech

They've made some terrible choices in the past - not least in 2007 with those "American Gangster" and "3:10 to Yuma" nominations. "The Town" seems to be on everybody's ensemble lists this year, and everybody in it (bar Rebecca Hall) is screaming "Look at me! Look at me!". "The Fighter" and "The Kids Are All Right" have tasty-looking cast lists, and could well grab three acting nominations a piece (if they're lucky.) Picking "Winter's Bone" over "The King's Speech" looks a lil silly, but the latter is losing a bit of steam, and, besides Colin Firth (who'll win here anyway) is anybody bothered about the acting?

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

James Franco, "127 Hours"

Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

Alternate: Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

This one's between seven; all of the above plus Mark Wahlberg, who has yet to receive a sole SAG nomination despite other major Awards notices in "Boogie Nights" and "The Departed". You would expect Robert Duvall to get a lot of votes from the veterans of the organisation (arguably more of an advantage than he would have in the Academy), and they've just given Bridges a prize, so leaving him off ballots isn't that much of a guilty move. Gosling has two SAG nominations in the category, and Eisenberg has the biggest buzz of the moment.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Alternate: Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

In a year this constricted in terms of actual performances noticed (isn't that any year I hear you ask), wouldn't one be tempted to go with what you know? If you're giving Annette Bening her due, and you liked "The Kids Are All Right", then why not throw a bone to Julianne too? After all, the choices beyond that (unless we're talking vote siphoners) seem fairly slim. I think the other four are fairly locked up, given Kidman's renowned professionalism, and the fact she's worked with so many people in the organisation.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"

Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Alternate: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Definitely a considerable chance of Mark Ruffalo getting snubbed, but doesn't this feel like an actors movie? I have doubts about Renner's staying power, considering that it's a pretty familiar role in a very mainstream film, but he has momentum on his side, and the performance itself is very decent.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Alternate: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"

Are four of the five spots locked up already, with the "Fighter" girls doing so well? I'm going with Steinfeld because SAG seem to like younger actors in the Supporting categories. Wiest is a living legend, but is she more on the side of AMPAS nostalgia, ready to steal in come January?