We may as well start with the probable Best Picture winner, Joe Wright's stunning Atonement. A sweeping statement you might say, but one that carries with it the enviable confidence of Atonement itself. Yes, it is really that good, and I honestly think this is very nearly a done deal. It's epic, romantic, grand, and is above all successful in its hugely ambitious statement.
But let's treat this as the race it is. Venice finished a couple of weeks ago, giving the coveted Golden Lion to Ang Lee again, this time for his sumptuous-looking period romance, Lust, Caution. It's hard to know how valuable the Golden Lion is in terms of the Oscars. Worryingly for Lee his film was poorly received by the Italian critics, ranked lowest of all the in-competition films. And lest we forget foreign films have enough of a disadvantage when it comes to Oscar, without reviews scuppering their chances. Lust, Caution's NC-17 rating is in itself a suicidal move if it wanted to appeal to the Academy. I can't see many people flocking to see this kind of film in America, Ang Lee or no Ang Lee.
Venice was also kind to Kenneth Branagh's Sleuth remake, which is supposed to differ a lot (in a good way) from its predecessor. I'm dubious as to whether it can make the Picture lineup, since it is in effect a rejuvenation of a film popular with the Academy. It's also a very short film. Something we know AMPAS does not associate with the prestige of a Best Picture nominee. I think that Oscar are more likely to go for their man of the moment, Paul Haggis, brimming with buzz once again after his film about an Iraq soldier (In the Valley of Elah) got great reviews in Italy. It seems to be going for the AMERICA AMERICA AMERICA route -- one that's likely to appear very profound and meaningful regardless of whether it is or not.
Along with the triumphant Lust, Caution Toronto's winning picture, David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises should also face difficulty getting a BP nomination. AMPAS have historically ignored Cronenberg for their major awards, his films perhaps a little too heavy for mass institutional backing. Indeed Toronto helped to eliminate a couple of earlier-touted films, Cate Blanchett's second stab at Elizabeth I, The Golden Age, which received less than inspiring reviews, and Terry George's Reservation Road, received poorly and dead in this race now, along with highly-fancied Joaquin Phoenix.
Philip Seymour Hoffman was the man that Toronto hailed, for his performances in both The Savages, which is increasingly beginning to look like the indie comedy BP slot this year, with a distinct absence of comedies, and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Sidney Lumet's film about a bungled robbery attempt. The latter does not seem like Picture material, although Lumet does have an undisputed record with AMPAS.
As much as I admire Ridley Scott the American Gangster trailer hardly instigates a frenzy within me, and it certainly does not have baity themes to flaunt. But it does have a stellar cast, and is bound to be well-made. Gavin Hood and Susanne Bier have previous success with low-budget projects but now find themselves in bigger territory. The trailers look good (especially Rendition), but will they succeed? I'm reserving judgement for now.
But amidst this festival fever I can't help thinking that people are forgetting about Mike Nichols' Charlie Wilson's War, which was a favourite in the year's early months, and which boasts a confident release date and impressive list of cast and credits. Hard to know without a trailer but on paper, it's strong.
- 1. Atonement (Lock)
- 2. In the Valley of Elah (Very Likely)
- 3. There Will Be Blood (Likely)
- 4. The Savages (Maybe)
- 5. Charlie Wilson's War (Maybe)
- 6. No Country For Old Men (Maybe)
- 7. Rendition (Maybe)